Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

This map has to be way over done for I95 east. They would see a lot of mixing with this track.

Uh ? Temps are below freezing. 

[David-LI]

So it will come down to nowcasting an air mass then

[Sn0waddict]

Slower too no? Still right off AC at 9z. I think NAM/CMC had it gone by 12z

[Nibor]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Further north than that. Its east of AC

 

Pivotal doesn't have hr 81 so I concede to that image.

[MJO812]

14 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

Yuck, horrible track for CNJ. I’m hoping the Euro is over amping this.

 

Yea I hope it goes further east.

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yea I hope it goes further east.

we've had storms with that track be all snow here....think Millenium storm.

 

[LibertyBell]

18 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

This map has to be way over done for I95 east. They would see a lot of mixing with this track.

not necessarily.... the Millenium storm cut across long island and there was no mixing here at all on the western part of the south shore of long island.

 

[LibertyBell]

16 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Further north than that. Its east of AC

 

that track is fine even for long island.

[Doorman]

 

 

 trend this.

small window for big snow in the metro...trust me  

[LibertyBell]

15 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Uh ? Temps are below freezing. 

it's more than just the track, cold air is getting wrapped into the storm also.  Not all storms perform the same way even if they have a similar track.  This seems to be a similar storm to the Millenium storm, where cold air got wrapped in all the way to the center and you could be 10 miles west of the low and still be all snow.  As long as the low doesn't make it up to our latitude we'll be fine.

 

[USCG RS]

1 minute ago, Doorman said:

 

 

 trend this.

small window for big snow...trust me  

I agree

[LibertyBell]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yea I hope it goes further east.

no you dont....this is the kind of storm that is going to have a sharp cut off and where it snows very close to the low center....you want to be as close to the low as you can to get the heaviest snows (just nw of the mix line which be right near the low center).

 

 

[LibertyBell]

18 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

I don’t mind names if they were coming from a national weather service.

 

I don’t like names that were made for branding, sensationalism, and ratings.

 

I actually think it’s beneath us on this site to use weather channel names for winter storms

Just my opinion

 

the NWS should have done it themselves using their own criteria.  Like they do it in Europe.  But America is consistently behind Europe on many scientific endeavors (and politically too.)

 

[LibertyBell]

17 hours ago, bluewave said:

This storm will push up against one of the strongest 50/50 lows on record.

 

Chris what is causing this?  I see we've had anomalously strong blocks show up in various parts of the world...maybe the Atlantic's turn has come up again?  La Nina or not, it wont matter, as it is really the blocking or lack thereof that determines our winter outcomes (see 2010-11).

 

[Doorman]

18 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

I agree

Hello Coasty.....see the 1004mb bubble on the euro 

and the match to the wpc  prog....

they get an early looks at things ....the wpc time stamp is just after midnight   0530Z

 

digital snow maps 

I think some forum has a thread for that

 

 

 

 

[LibertyBell]

15 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

Ah, they had 40 and rain until recently. Weather for the masses

unfortunately this is why the masses dont take meteorology seriously =\

 

[Franklin0529]

6 minutes ago, Doorman said:

Hello Coasty.....see the 1004mb bubble on the euro 

and the match to the wpc  prog....

they get an early looks at things ....the wpc time stamp is just after midnight   0530Z

 

digital snow maps 

I think some forum has a thread for that

 

 

 

 

I enjoy your input. What do u think suppressed/strung out like gfs? Or amped tucked an mostly rain for coastal areas

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

I enjoy your input. What do u think suppressed/strung out like gfs? Or amped tucked an mostly rain for coastal areas

Mostly rain ?

Where?

[MJO812]

14 minutes ago, Doorman said:

Hello Coasty.....see the 1004mb bubble on the euro 

and the match to the wpc  prog....

they get an early looks at things ....the wpc time stamp is just after midnight   0530Z

 

digital snow maps 

I think some forum has a thread for that

 

 

 

 

What are your thoughts?

[Franklin0529]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Mostly rain ?

Where?

Monmouth ocean counties

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Monmouth ocean counties

Lets root for a east shift

[wizard021]

Euro would certainly favor sleet in the city. 700 mb tracks overhead. 

[Franklin0529]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Lets root for a east shift

Yea I hope. It's hard to get a snow storm here. With a storm that amped an close to Atlantic city. No way it's not mostly rain in these parts

[David-LI]

OK can a met explain to me why this low won’t blow up off ACY like any good nor’easter low and we get plenty of cold air in??

[Doorman]

27 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

I enjoy your input. What do u think suppressed/strung out like gfs? Or amped tucked an mostly rain for coastal areas

I think 6 plus for the metro will be a stretch.... this is the noaa metro prog for 7:00 pm Wed night

1 inch prog

the euro has it weaken to about 1004mb trucking east 12 hours later

do the math....

 

https://digital.weather.gov/

where is my mustard....

 

[LibertyBell]

33 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Mostly rain ?

Where?

he thinks roasty coasty ;-)

[LibertyBell]

27 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Yea I hope. It's hard to get a snow storm here. With a storm that amped an close to Atlantic city. No way it's not mostly rain in these parts

Look up the track of the Millenium storm as it crossed central Long Island, it was all snow at JFK

[sussexcountyobs]

Winter Storm watch up from 7am Wednesday to 7am Thursday for north and northwest NJ.

[wdrag]

From Topic headline at 6AM Monday 12/14/20.  Please monitor NWS Watch-Warnings for this storm and associated statements and still uncertainty on where highest impact.  There is/was some overall slight southward shift in the guidance in the past 24 hours and so my uncertainty for the forum is northern CT-Catskills,  and LI/I95 southeastward. WPC still has 1.5"+ qpf just s of I80-LI and 3/4" into northern CT. Added the EPS 10 to 1 ratio graphic of both today and Wednesday nights storm. I think that serves as continued good starting point with the usual caveat on the northern and southern fringes. 

If you have travel plans Wednesday into Thursday I95 northwestward from VA through WV, PA, NJ, NYS and southern New England it's probably a good idea to consider changes, based on your NWS or other favorite media outlet forecasts. 

I think this will be a top 20 snow storm for a few parts of our NYC subforum (basically ~ 1 foot will prompt that review) but unsure where. For now between I95 to I84. Anticipating (not guaranteed) widespread closures or delays for all transportation systems I95 corridor northwestward Wednesday evening into Thursday morning,. For those who have access and wish to do so, you can calculate an experimental storm index to get an idea of what is probably coming. I don't want to presume more than Major yet (crippling is the next step up). Here is some information. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/rsi/?nesis

Still variability in northward extent of heavy 1 foot snow ranging from the NAM Adirondacks to the GFS-RGEM I80-LI. UKMET is still quite far north.  Ensembled r/s line looks to remain mostly south of I80-LI but awfully close, close enough to think sleet, rain or freezing rain mixes in for a time after the initial Wednesday evening thump for LI and s of I80.  EPS continues almost unyielding on the widespread 8-18" snowstorm (isolated 2 feet possible in the banding somewhere north of I80-LI).  Major power outages possible wherever the 6" of 32-33F wet snow accumulates along with wind gusts of 40-50 MPH. If this were to occur, it would most likely develop between 9 PM and midnight Wednesday evening per consistent modeling of snow onslaught and wind gusts increasing past 30 MPH.  Am targeting LI south coast and NJ coast but this will require 6" wet snow (32-33f).  Isolated wind gusts above 50 MPH possible on those coasts.  Snowfall rates of 1-3"/hr possible in northward transiting bands Wednesday-evening/ night.  Where these tend to park on the northern extent of the storm, will probably be the 2 feet of snow, especially with ratios drier than 10 to 1 (maybe 13 to 1). NWS has the multi model ratio blend tool and BUFKIT can assist for those who have that tool. There could be closing bands of moderate snowfall Thursday morning after sunrise into early afternoon as the comma head tends to fold southeastward behind the eastnortheastward departing  storm. 

Clearing the first few inches of snow around 8-10PM Wednesday will make it easier to remove the additional snow Thursday morning. Where it's wet-caution for those with heart conditions., 

This strong easterly surface gradient (northeast wind) between the cold 1035MB high over Quebec and and the probable 995-1000MB low near Cape May early Thursday will produce minor to moderate coastal flooding, for the Thursday morning high tide cycle. Follow NWS statements. 

So the base EPS snowfall graphic is added.  Also multiple locations of whatever is in their climate database (did not check for missing data). This gives us an idea of amount goals to reach top 20... No guarantee anywhere but I would think 1 or 2 of these would make top 20.  

May not comment in detail again til late today or this evening, shifting attention to today. Have a good day and fun debating.  Am still uneasy about the northward extent of the 00z/14 EPS 1" qpf which is still near the MA Pike. 

[gravitylover]

Hey @wdrag where can I find that same info for KDXR, HPN and SWF?