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Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020


wdrag
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8 minutes ago, billgwx said:

GFS is notorious for overdoing this confluence via too strong of a polar jet. If models overdo the snowfall across southern Canada this weekend that too could lead to too strong/cold of a high.

Bill what’s your thoughts on the gefs, ggem, eps, euro, and icon all showing a similar evolution? 

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3 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

I've seen it happen before with Pi day 2017. It will be an absolute nightmare to keep up with clearing wise.

This storm never gets brought up in any forum here ever again, kay? (3.5" here. very fast over to rain when 12" was predicted). I was in PA a few days later and saw winter heaven, so I'm fully aware how much that storm sucked. :P 

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1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

This storm never gets brought up in any forum here ever again, kay? (3.5" here. very fast over to rain when 12" was predicted). I was in PA a few days later and saw winter heaven, so I'm fully aware how much that storm sucked. :P 

It was our payback for missing Jonas, ha.

 

If this is your payback for us taking Pi day I really wouldn't mind. 95 deserves its next big storm.

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7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Bill what’s your thoughts on the gefs, ggem, eps, euro, and icon all showing a similar evolution? 

You were a little more blunt than I was lol.  I agree with you 100%.   If the gfs is wrong than they're all wrong on the synoptic evolution.   

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Just now, David-LI said:

What storm setup in the past looks like this upcoming one?

To me it's a subdued and quicker Jan 1996/Feb 1983 setup. Strong confluence out ahead of a powerful trough and shortwave. The PNA ridge isn't what those were and this is a quicker pattern so I wouldn't expect those same amounts but for who this does hit it'll be a crusher. 

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4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

So far today, the Ukie is an outlier. It’s pretty weak and suppressed, unlike all the other runs we’ve seen so far 

UK usually correlates closer to EC than GFS , if memory serves; so shall be interesting to watch evolution; esp. what impact Monday’s “storm” has on the Wed. puppy.

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