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Wet snow Monday Dec 14, 2020?


wdrag
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Yes, 18z NAM continues at 42-54  hours... probably going to happen.  NAEFS came north and a sharp cutoff nil near AVP-BAF. Melting beneath should suppress amounts a bit, especially lower elevations but ground should be white near NYC by 4PM Monday...  the 12z/12 EC op was the least interested.

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Good Sunday morning everyone with probably small interest in Monday as compared to Wednesday-Thursday, 

Added the 00z/13 SPC HREF 8 member ensemble for snowfall Monday, and the 06z/13 HRRX variable density snowfall.  

A period of snow is expected between 8AM and 4PM Monday across most of the forum, mostly melting on pavement due to daylight hours (except possible hazardous plowable 2-3 inches in the hilly areas of western-nw NJ and ne PA south of I84). Snow should eventually accumulate on all untreated non paved surfaces. Range of accumulation in our forum area 1/2-~4".  I think the heaviest will be hilly terrain of nw NJ and ne PA s of I84.

The I95 corridor may start as rain or a rain/snow mix but eventually go over to snow before ending. It's possible that many areas in the northern third of NJ across LI and maybe s coastal CT will see a short period or two of half mile moderate snow with 1/2" accumulation in an hour. 

Screen Shot 2020-12-13 at 4.42.29 AM.png

Screen Shot 2020-12-13 at 5.45.24 AM.png

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6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Surface temps are around 34 in NYC

there is one way the NAM could be close to correct with these amounts is if later in the afternoon close to sunset or after there is a heavier burst of snow for a few hours and temps slide closer to freezing or below 

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Here's some guidance...not gospel. Lets see if this guidance is too cold and less snow occurs NYC area down to I-195 in NJ than shown here. Please use the legends for your area. I definitely think there will be a period or two of 1/2mile moderate snow and 1/2" accumulation/hr in the region near and west of NYC.  Decent banding will occur and there is some lift centered in the ideal DGZ. Have a look at the 12z/13 NAM 3k profile for LGA lift and temp.  Later, Walt

 

 

Screen Shot 2020-12-13 at 11.38.43 AM.png

Screen Shot 2020-12-13 at 11.44.54 AM.png

Screen Shot 2020-12-13 at 11.51.33 AM.png

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