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December 11th-12th Potential Winter Storm


Thundersnow12
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15 hours ago, Baum said:

pretty sure we're not going to know what's going to happen until it happens.

same idea:

THE FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE COMPLEX WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE   
SURFACE LOW SATURDAY MORNING. CAA WILL BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD IN THE   
LOW- LEVELS, ALLOWING THE RAIN/SNOW LINE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST   
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT   
DISCREPANCIES AS TO HOW FAST THIS SOUTHEASTWARD MARCH OCCURS, WITH  
SOME GUIDANCE HOLDING ON TO WARMER AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS INTO THE  
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, PRECIP RATE WILL LIKELY DICTATE PRECIP   
TYPE, WITH HEAVIER RATES IN A POSSIBLE AXIS OF MODERATE   
DEFORMATION PRECIP FAVORING ALL SNOW VS. A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR ALL   
RAIN. SOME 00Z GUIDANCE (CMC, ECMWF) ARE SUGGESTING THIS POTENTIAL  
NORTH OF I-80 LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SO,   
WHILE THE CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES ONLY LIMITED ACCUMULATING   
SNOW AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE WI STATE LINE, NOTABLE ACCUMULATIONS   
ARE STILL POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN ILLINOIS, INCLUDING THE CHICAGO   
METRO NORTHWEST OF AN AURORA TO GLENCOE LINE.  

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We're underway here with our first 0.01" of rain, and 41 degrees.  Looks like a steady cold rain through about 6-7am before a quick changeover to snow.  Was thinking/hoping 1-3" but I think we'll do good if we can squeeze an inch out of this.  At least we should get over the 1" seasonal hurdle with this.  The Des Moines to Cedar Rapids corridor def has the hot hand, as many areas along that track will loft to over 10" for the season with this.  

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13 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

We're underway here with our first 0.01" of rain, and 41 degrees.  Looks like a steady cold rain through about 6-7am before a quick changeover to snow.  Was thinking/hoping 1-3" but I think we'll do good if we can squeeze an inch out of this.  At least we should get over the 1" seasonal hurdle with this.  The Des Moines to Cedar Rapids corridor def has the hot hand, as many areas along that track will loft to over 10" for the season with this.  

I'm sticking with 3" here, which would put me at about 10" for the season.

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Just now, hawkeye_wx said:

I'm sticking with 3" here, which would put me at about 10" for the season.

Solid call.  I'd hope for more since you should be in the heart of it tonight/tomorrow morning, but given how things have been going 3" would be just fine.  Wouldn't be surprised if you, or somewhere close by got 5"+ though.

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4 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Solid call.  I'd hope for more since you should be in the heart of it tonight/tomorrow morning, but given how things have been going 3" would be just fine.  Wouldn't be surprised if you, or somewhere close by got 5"+ though.

The rain/snow line should be parked over the CR/IC area all night.  A few miles could be the difference between 1 and 4 inches.  The HRRR has no snow in Iowa City until morning.

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