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December 11th-12th Potential Winter Storm


Thundersnow12
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Meanwhile, the Canadian is steady with a solid band... really on a different planet than the GFS.  The difference seems to be how the models handle the jet streak energy rounding the base of the trough.  The GFS swings the energy south and east of the others, so by the time the energy turns north and spins up, it's at Lake Michigan.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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Even though modelers will tell you the RAOB data doesn't affect performance much, it's not what we're seeing anecdotally with a lot of these systems. It seems like with every system in recent winters, drastic changes and or variability occur prior to main wave or one of the primary waves coming ashore from the Pacific, followed by a relative stabilizing once there's full RAOB sampling.

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5 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

Even though modelers will tell you the RAOB data doesn't affect performance much, it's not what we're seeing anecdotally with a lot of these systems. It seems like with every system in recent winters, drastic changes and or variability occur prior to main wave or one of the primary waves coming ashore from the Pacific, followed by a relative stabilizing once there's full RAOB sampling.

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That very much seems to be the case generally speaking

With this one, there is really no margin for error with the poor antecedent airmass region wide, you add in the local factors in play imby and it's a lock for a rainer

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