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Wintry events possible I84 corridor down to near I80 next week (14th-18th)

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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SnoSki14

SnoSki14

Posted
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22 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I get nervous when it's good at 7 days out.  So much can and will change.  I hope we see a couple of OTS runs-that always bodes well for the inevitable correction N and W....

They were inland yesterday.

I expect them to shuffle back and forth but things look good right now for a miller B. Nice high to our north with 50/50 low.

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billgwx
billgwx

Today's ECMWF H5 vort and sfc low track were a little too far north for my liking for NYC/Long Island to be all in, supporting being cautious in those areas as you point out. Meanwhile GFS was right d

wdrag
wdrag

Good Wednesday morning everyone,  No change for me in this 5 day period.   I think we could see a change develop in the way the GFS is modeling the 14th (a b luging weak wave of qpf. Ditto t

forkyfork
forkyfork

it relaxed the confluence a little. a few more runs and we should be golden for a nice soaking rain

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wdrag

wdrag

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Hi! A few different things... just to try to keep perspective.

 I need op GGEM on board... i see some of it's ensembles are there but I need GGEM op on board. I don't think it will be much of a snow storm for us, if it isn't. 

12z NAEFS has slightly warmer thickness than it's 00z/10 version...5540 cutting thru LI now 00z/17.  That increases risk of mix or rain LI, for at least a time. 

Caution on buying in on the ratios til till we know for sure the sounding is all snow,  and that the 1000-500 thickness is preferably ~5400m    Thereafter it's the DGZ and Banding.  WAYYYY too far off for me to count on anything except decent snow I84 north (heart of the ensemble axis). For now we in the NYS forum seem to be close to the gradient  of snow and no snow.  Gradient error's can be very large. 

I've added the WPC D7 GEFS forecast for 3" or greater of snow Or 1/4" water equivalent glaze or combo thereof.  The prob is 30-49% in dark green. 

Will revisit tomorrow morning... 

 

 

 

Screen Shot 2020-12-10 at 12.48.55 PM.png

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, wdrag said:

Hi! A few different things... just to try to keep perspective.

 I need op GGEM on board... i see some of it's ensembles are there but I need GGEM op on board. I don't think it will be much of a snow storm for us, if it isn't. 

 

 

 

 

 

Walt - may I ask why the GGEM OP has to be on board ? I remember many times in the past where the GGEM gives us a major snowstorm days out from the event and we end up with much less.....

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Brian5671

Brian5671

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Walt - may I ask why the GGEM has to be on board ? I remember many times in the past where the GGEM gives us a major snowstorm days out from the event and we end up with much less.....

I had the same question-it's verification scores are usually less than the euro and GFS....

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billgwx

billgwx

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Hi! A few different things... just to try to keep perspective.

 I need op GGEM on board... i see some of it's ensembles are there but I need GGEM op on board. I don't think it will be much of a snow storm for us, if it isn't. 

12z NAEFS has slightly warmer thickness than it's 00z/10 version...5540 cutting thru LI now 00z/17.  That increases risk of mix or rain LI, for at least a time. 

Caution on buying in on the ratios til till we know for sure the sounding is all snow,  and that the 1000-500 thickness is preferably ~5400m    Thereafter it's the DGZ and Banding.  WAYYYY too far off for me to count on anything except decent snow I84 north (heart of the ensemble axis). For now we in the NYS forum seem to be close to the gradient  of snow and no snow.  Gradient error's can be very large. 

I've added the WPC D7 GEFS forecast for 3" or greater of snow Or 1/4" water equivalent glaze or combo thereof.  The prob is 30-49% in dark green. 

Will revisit tomorrow morning...

Today's ECMWF H5 vort and sfc low track were a little too far north for my liking for NYC/Long Island to be all in, supporting being cautious in those areas as you point out. Meanwhile GFS was right down the sweet spot. Also, case of models sniffing it out a week early, only to lose it Days 3-5, then come back to it come watch time? We shall see

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Stormlover74

Stormlover74

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, billgwx said:

Today's ECMWF H5 vort and sfc low track were a little too far north for my liking for NYC/Long Island to be all in, supporting being cautious in those areas as you point out. Meanwhile GFS was right down the sweet spot. Also, case of models sniffing it out a week early, only to lose it Days 3-5, then come back to it come watch time? We shall see

Also the GFS would normally be the too far S&E at this range yes?

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