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Winter 2020-2021 Banter


Rtd208
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On 1/15/2021 at 10:42 AM, 495weatherguy said:

Anthony, a serious question for you.   
 

would you rather have current conditions—blocking but suppression?

or

Storms at 38 degrees?

This winter has demonstrated or reminded us just how many things have to go right (or wrong) for it to snow near the coast.  The last 20 years have been unbelievable, rather anomalous, there is a reason our long term averages are around 30 inches of snow.

 

We can no longer discount the extreme warmth. This new normal isnt historically normal for this area at all.

Comparing these last few years to historical averages with a much cooler planet is an apples to oranges comparison.

The Nino season snapped something. Nothing has been the same since then

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snowiest Decembers...2020 comes in tenth...oni is estimated....2020 is the warmest December with a favorable AO/NAO/PNA...

snowiest NYC Decembers since 1950 and indices...

year....snowfall....big snow......ave temp....oni…...AO.......NAO....PNA....QBO...

2010.....20.1"...…….20.0"...…….32.8......-1.6....-2.631....-1.85....-1.78....10.97

2003.....19.8"...…….14.0"...…….37.6...….0.4.....0.265.....0.64.....0.86...-11.38

1960.....18.6"...…….15.2"...…….30.9...….0.1....-0.343.....0.06.....1.46...-11.36

1959.....15.8"...…….13.7"...…….38.4...….0.0....-0.042.....0.44.....0.66......8.30

2000.....13.4"...…….12.0"...…….31.1...…-0.7....-2.354....-0.58.....1.23...-14.56

2009.....12.4"...…….10.7"...…….35.9...….1.6....-3.413....-1.93.....0.34...-15.57

1995.....11.5"...……...7.9"...…….32.4...…-1.0....-2.127....-1.67.....0.92.....-4.57

1963.....11.3"...……...6.3"...…….31.2...….1.3....-1.178....-1.92....-0.08......5.48

2002.....11.0"...……...6.0"...…….36.0...….1.1....-1.592....-0.94.....1.59.....-0.50

2020.....10.5".........10.5"..........39.2.....-1.2....-1.736....-0.30.....1.58.....10.37

2005...….9.7"...…......5.8"...…….35.3.....-0.8....-2.104....-0.44.....1.38...-25.04

1966...….9.1"...……..7.1"...……....35.7......-0.3....-1.401.....0.72.....0.09....13.26

1957...….8.7"...……..8.0"...…..….40.2.......1.7.....0.828.....0.12....-0.43...…7.35

2013...….8.6"...……..5.0"....…….38.5...…-0.3.....1.475.....0.95....-0.86....12.52

1961...….7.7"...……..6.2"...…..….35.5...….-0.2....-1.668....-1.48....-1.24......6.25

2017...….7.7"...……..4.5".....…….35.0...….-1.0....-0.059.....0.88.....0.89...-18.12

1952...….7.5"...……..4.5"....…….38.4...…..0.1....-1.827....-0.43.....0.93.....-1.65

1990...….7.2"...……..7.2"...….….42.6...…..0.4.....1.277.....0.22....-1.32....10.68

1968...….7.0"...……..5.2"...….….34.3...…..1.0....-0.783....-1.40....-1.44...-11.36

1993...….6.9"...……..4.0"....…….37.3...…..0.1....-0.104.....1.56.....0.72.....-6.00

1969...….6.8"...……..6.8"....…….33.4...…..0.6....-1.856....-0.28.....1.84......5.00

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On 1/15/2021 at 1:31 PM, snowman19 said:

People are conditioned to believe that the winters from 2000-2016 are the norm around here....fact is, they are not. We got extremely lucky during that 16 year time period, truth is, those winters were an anomaly. I could not imagine this forum had it been around for the winters from 1979-1993. People would have lost their minds on here

Yup.  At least from 1979-1993 there wasn't the temptation to stay glued to the situation 24x7 (other than TWC, which even as a kid you knew that once you watched for 20 minutes straight there would be nothing new to hear for a few hours, so might as well go play outside.)  As a kid/teen if I had the 24x7 access we have now I might not have graduated elementary, junior high, or high school on time,  or held down a job during the winter months lol. Imagine working in a shopping mall and heading down to the TV department in the department store to catch the weatherman at 7:45PM sharp to see if there were any updates. In hindsight, I think that might have been a problem.

1970-1999 Long Island had about six (six!) total storms of a foot or more.   The 2000-2016 was the reward for those of us who suffered before that.

 

 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Twitter meteorologists need to stop hyping the stupid SSW. Alot of calls were for an epic January .

Long range forecasts are also stupid . The friggin  models can't even get a storm right a week out.

Perhaps a name change would help, Anthony .....  “ Long Range Maybe “ is a thought. As always ....

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I appreciate  all the long range forecasts.

I am really stressed out right now. I'm currently looking for a 2 family house which will cost 800k+ and looking to get married.

Having some snow will ease the stress.

I'm basically  planning everything right now by myself since her family doesn't have alot of money or  know alot about homes.

I wish my dad was still around to help me

He passed away 9 years ago of pancreatic cancer at 52 years old. 

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23 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I appreciate  all the long range forecasts.

I am really stressed out right now. I'm currently looking for a 2 family house which will cost 800k+ and looking to get married.

Having some snow will ease the stress.

I'm basically  planning everything right now by myself since her family doesn't have alot of money or  know alot about homes.

I wish my dad was still around to help me

He passed away 9 years ago of pancreatic cancer at 52 years old. 

where are you looking for a house?...

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3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

I appreciate  all the long range forecasts.

I am really stressed out right now. I'm currently looking for a 2 family house which will cost 800k+ and looking to get married.

Having some snow will ease the stress.

I'm basically  planning everything right now by myself since her family doesn't have alot of money or  know alot about homes.

I wish my dad was still around to help me

He passed away 9 years ago of pancreatic cancer at 52 years old. 

hey good luck with all that, nobody can blame you for being stressed, that's a bunch of huge decisions.

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5 hours ago, MJO812 said:

I appreciate  all the long range forecasts.

I am really stressed out right now. I'm currently looking for a 2 family house which will cost 800k+ and looking to get married.

Having some snow will ease the stress.

I'm basically  planning everything right now by myself since her family doesn't have alot of money or  know alot about homes.

I wish my dad was still around to help me

He passed away 9 years ago of pancreatic cancer at 52 years old. 

I remember when it was sadly mentioned on the forum at that time. A tragedy then and still is. Anthony, your father is still with you. His persona resides in you. You have done well under difficult circumstances. You have a career in law enforcement, a future partnership that will bear fruit, keeping you happy for decades to come. You should, of course seek and listen to the advice of others. When the time comes, however, the spirit of your upbringing and your own counsel will hold true. Be well Anthony and make sure you give your children a decent wage to shovel. As always .....

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4 hours ago, rclab said:

I remember when it was sadly mentioned on the forum at that time. A tragedy then and still is. Anthony, your father is still with you. His persona resides in you. You have done well under difficult circumstances. You have a career in law enforcement, a future partnership that will bear fruit, keeping you happy for decades to come. You should, of course seek and listen to the advice of others. When the time comes, however, the spirit of your upbringing and your own counsel will hold true. Be well Anthony and make sure you give your children a decent wage to shovel. As always .....

you always have wise words to share my friend

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On 1/17/2021 at 4:32 PM, jfklganyc said:

We can no longer discount the extreme warmth. This new normal isnt historically normal for this area at all.

Comparing these last few years to historical averages with a much cooler planet is an apples to oranges comparison.

The Nino season snapped something. Nothing has been the same since then

It's rather exciting in a way.  I can't wait until we get a Cat 3 TC that turns into a blizzard in February haha.

Could also happen in October.

 

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16 hours ago, MJO812 said:

I appreciate  all the long range forecasts.

I am really stressed out right now. I'm currently looking for a 2 family house which will cost 800k+ and looking to get married.

Having some snow will ease the stress.

I'm basically  planning everything right now by myself since her family doesn't have alot of money or  know alot about homes.

I wish my dad was still around to help me

He passed away 9 years ago of pancreatic cancer at 52 years old. 

My dad passed away 6 years ago so I can empathize :(

Where are you looking to buy a house and why a 2 family one?

 

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