etudiant Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 People are expecting too much. Forecasts have many dimensions. Not all of them eventuate. Here in Manhattan, we had a forecast of a potential Nor'easter for this time about 10 days ago, did not get the snow and precip, but a lovely sunny day with healthy north winds. I'd call that a solid B forecast, the direction was good, the details less so, but we all know the devil is in the details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 Big rainstorm on the 18-19th. bank on it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 most of northern Louisiana is under a winter storm warning. LOL-can you say southern storm track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 Hey my kids want to go for a walk on the beach today, any place that might be better wind sheltered than another? North shore - south shore, east or west doesn't matter but when I looked quickly it seems that there's a good stiff northerly "breeze" today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 Jones beach even long beach would be better in front of buildings 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 1 hour ago, Dan76 said: Jones beach even long beach would be better in front of buildings I went to Jones Beach last night to see the Christmas lights lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: I went to Jones Beach last night to see the Christmas lights lol Patrol car? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 26 minutes ago, Dan76 said: Patrol car? Uh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 22 minutes ago, Dan76 said: Patrol car? Cost the city $400 when you add in the food he had delivered by Uber and the 2 Mets tickets he bought from a scalper lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Mt Rainier LOL This Afternoon Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 16. Wind chill values between -3 and -8. Windy, with a south southwest wind around 31 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 15 to 21 inches possible. Tonight Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Temperature rising to around 18 by 5am. Wind chill values between -4 and -9. Windy, with a southwest wind 29 to 37 mph, with gusts as high as 48 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 34 to 40 inches possible. Tuesday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 20. Wind chill values between -5 and zero. Windy, with a southwest wind 36 to 40 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 26 to 32 inches possible. Tuesday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 5. Wind chill values between -8 and -18. Windy, with a west wind 33 to 38 mph increasing to 40 to 45 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 25 to 31 inches possible. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 44 minutes ago, Dan76 said: Mt Rainier LOL This Afternoon Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 16. Wind chill values between -3 and -8. Windy, with a south southwest wind around 31 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 15 to 21 inches possible. Tonight Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Temperature rising to around 18 by 5am. Wind chill values between -4 and -9. Windy, with a southwest wind 29 to 37 mph, with gusts as high as 48 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 34 to 40 inches possible. Tuesday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 20. Wind chill values between -5 and zero. Windy, with a southwest wind 36 to 40 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 26 to 32 inches possible. Tuesday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 5. Wind chill values between -8 and -18. Windy, with a west wind 33 to 38 mph increasing to 40 to 45 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 25 to 31 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 On 1/6/2021 at 5:30 PM, Brian5671 said: too much blocking and this is what you get.... Great opportunity for astrophotography with the moon in its "darker" phases. Looks like things will just in time *by mid month* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 39 minutes ago, bluewave said: Like I have always said if we are below normal someone else is above normal. In the end there isn’t a normal if you ask me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 11 hours ago, wishcast_hater said: Like I have always said if we are below normal someone else is above normal. In the end there isn’t a normal if you ask me. Long Island used to get normal snowfall before the mid1990s. But since then, we switched to all or nothing mode. More frequent very high or very low snowfall winters. Fewer closer to the mid range. https://www.bnl.gov/weather/4cast/MonthlySnowfall.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 On 1/12/2021 at 7:47 PM, wishcast_hater said: Like I have always said if we are below normal someone else is above normal. In the end there isn’t a normal if you ask me. Sea effect snowfall is increasing for the same reason that lake effect snows are on a rapid increase....because of warmer waters fueling more moisture to precipitate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 5 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Sea effect snowfall is increasing for the same reason that lake effect snows are on a rapid increase....because of warmer waters fueling more moisture to precipitate. The difference is they have real altitude whereas we have a few hundred feet of relief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 2 hours ago, gravitylover said: The difference is they have real altitude whereas we have a few hundred feet of relief. Good morning, L B/G L. Considering that the above sea level altitude of the postage stamp might equate to a bump in the road; I will definitely start stocking survival supplies when the five boroughs start to get buried by ocean effect snows. As always .... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 fyi my favorite type of weather is better than your favorite type of weather and if you disagree you should obviously move to another country or planet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 20 hours ago, rclab said: Good morning, L B/G L. Considering that the above sea level altitude of the postage stamp might equate to a bump in the road; I will definitely start stocking survival supplies when the five boroughs start to get buried by ocean effect snows. As always .... if you want to start increasing snowfall here just build an artificial lake N or NW of our area and relocate those pesky neighbors who live there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 We finally have blocking and nothing to show for it. Unbelieveable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: We finally have blocking and nothing to show for it. Unbelieveable. Anthony, a serious question for you. would you rather have current conditions—blocking but suppression? or Storms at 38 degrees? This winter has demonstrated or reminded us just how many things have to go right (or wrong) for it to snow near the coast. The last 20 years have been unbelievable, rather anomalous, there is a reason our long term averages are around 30 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 regression to the mean. We've had a hell of a run, but the last few years show us that every year won't have 40-60 inches of snow here... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 11 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: regression to the mean. We've had a hell of a run, but the last few years show us that every year won't have 40-60 inches of snow here... People are conditioned to believe that the winters from 2000-2016 are the norm around here....fact is, they are not. We got extremely lucky during that 16 year time period, truth is, those winters were an anomaly. I could not imagine this forum had it been around for the winters from 1979-1993. People would have lost their minds on here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: People are conditioned to believe that the winters from 2000-2016 are the norm around here....fact is, they are not. We got extremely lucky during that 16 year time period, truth is, those winters were an anomaly. I could not imagine this forum had it been around for the winters from 1979-1993. People would have lost their minds on here Truth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 11 hours ago, LibertyBell said: if you want to start increasing snowfall here just build an artificial lake N or NW of our area and relocate those pesky neighbors who live there. I believe if it increased the frozen ratio the N/NW neighbors would be on board and end up owning fine, in land sea shore, home sites. As always .... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 9 hours ago, 495weatherguy said: Truth But if it's all you know you get used to it. Also 1979-1993 had a historic snow drought that had never happened before. By the way climate change was integral in the 2002/03-2015/16 winter patterns too, if you look at how warming SST drive quickly intensifying storms. We've seen an increase in big rainfall events as well as big snowfall events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 10 hours ago, Brian5671 said: regression to the mean. We've had a hell of a run, but the last few years show us that every year won't have 40-60 inches of snow here... But statistics shows us that there is such a large variation there is no such thing as a "mean" Average snowfall years are actually the rarest. I'm actually hoping we are on the final downward spiral that gets the average person to finally recognize the dangers of climate change. A sad commentary is that awful things (like the pandemic) need to happen to get the average person to actually care. So if we dont get big snowfalls anymore, that may be a good thing in the long run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 13 hours ago, 495weatherguy said: Anthony, a serious question for you. would you rather have current conditions—blocking but suppression? or Storms at 38 degrees? This winter has demonstrated or reminded us just how many things have to go right (or wrong) for it to snow near the coast. The last 20 years have been unbelievable, rather anomalous, there is a reason our long term averages are around 30 inches of snow. I'd rather have 60s and sunny right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 I know people are getting antsy but the upcoming pattern really isn't that bad. It might not work out for us but we def have a shot at more interesting wx. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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