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Typhoon Tip

Dec 5/6th major coastal/ west Atlantic cyclogenesis ...?

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Compare H5, that will probably help with what tics if any, we’re seeing 

It was a tic or two east.

00z

image.png.04d1021d2198779882d6b01d4f274edc.png

 

18z

image.png.dba43bdb3b660cd184c791c5030d5171.png

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2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I guess the question is whether that is legit, I mean the tightening shield.  Or will the precip be more expansive 

NAM does that all the time in storms down south in my experience, yet there is always a mega-band that develops in the fringe zone that jackpots them. It loves the super-sharp cutoff.

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Given the projected wind and snowfall rates 1 to 3 in./h for a while, would there need to be a blizzard warning for somewhere? Probably somewhere east of me to maybe five or 10 miles from the coast? My forecast has winds gusting to 40 tomorrow and 30 tomorrow night

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1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

NAM does that all the time in storms down south in my experience, yet there is always a mega-band that develops in the fringe zone that jackpots them. It loves the super-sharp cutoff.

Yes, it has seem like both you and me would get into that heavy band, especially given the track of the surface low. I don’t know enough to look at all the other stuff like the mid-level low tracks and all that sort of thing.

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Just now, dendrite said:

It looked like it didn’t quite curl in as much as previous runs.

Yeah, It didn't have that hook west

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Just now, dendrite said:

It looked like it didn’t quite curl in as much as previous runs.

The Euro had the same “exit stage right” look as it gained latitude.  Ending up under Eastport.

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

It looked like it didn’t quite curl in as much as previous runs.

The curl is crucial for eastern areas,  if it doesn’t, it’ll allow the cold to feed in earlier and change the rain over snow 

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Just now, Wentzadelphia said:

I’ve arrived to Henniker...I’m almost tempted to eat the money and head East lol....nah anything can happen and I’m not rich. I’m happy with 8 or 9, but hopeful for a foot plus obviously.

You could make a last-minute decision in the morning based on how things look.You could make a last-minute decision in the morning based on how things look.

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1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

You could make a last-minute decision in the morning based on how things look.You could make a last-minute decision in the morning based on how things look.

Yeah if all the models follow suite and the 6z NAM continues I just might consider it 

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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The band sig was near Ryan and Kevin into  ORH county and SNH. Than sort of reformed east.

I feel like it still looks good on the NAM back this way. Real nice 700mb front/TROWAL action through central CT.

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