Bubbler86 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 5 minutes ago, paweather said: NAM! That is 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, pasnownut said: we did the important stuff..... liquor store. HAHA. I did that a couple of days ago. These short range models will vary no doubt. Can't wait to get to the HRRR LOL. This will be big and the evolution of the system is pretty much the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: That is 12Z Oh shoot. sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just parsing over nooners/HH runs as I was helping a friend do some projects. I dont believe or trust this for a second, but DAMN its something we rarely see. Just stare and dream a little dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: That was my original concern that I thought was gone. As long there is the chance of the double barreled structure I personally feel a bit worried especially for me way out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 6 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Yea, the 18z really lacked the organized intense CCB band that's going to be the determining factor for the eastern half of PA of having widespread excessive totals come to fruition or more like what the NWS is putting out with the 7-12" warnings. Still tremendous differences in the short range guidance. Check out the RGEM, the Mid-Atlantic folks probably fainted. I retract my RGEM comment for now, I was looking at 12z. 18z hasn't ran yet. But still, a tremendous difference. This is why CTP is playing the slow but steady game with this.. although probably should've had the watches expanded more early today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Just parsing over nooners/HH runs as I was helping a friend do some projects. I dont believe or trust this for a second, but DAMN its something we rarely see. Just stare and dream a little dream. It is my screen saver now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, paweather said: It is my screen saver now. LOL, that is a good idea. Keeps hopes alive that it can happen at any point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 10 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: That was my original concern that I thought was gone. Until Monday night I dont think your concern is off the table. Big nooners today were pretty much awesome, but its still far enough out there to warrant concern. B's have the short term ability to rob and steal like Yeagermister did in rudolph. Seeing the majors tracks makes me feel we should be able to get somewhere between ctp's conservative approach and some of the nooner Op and Ens guidance. The retrograde really helps the ccb's IMO. Meso's should paint the picture starting tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Mag CTP posted this the other day. They have me in that warning but what they are forecasting for me doesn't meet that criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: LOL, that is a good idea. Keeps hopes alive that it can happen at any point. Like I said I didn't remember every seeing this on a snowfall map and I forgot 2016. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 It’s a gorgeous day. We went on a long 4 mile walk and I actually got warm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 The King has spoke let's just hope the EURO/GEM so consistent outside of one EURO one stays the course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, canderson said: It’s a gorgeous day. We went on a long 4 mile walk and I actually got warm. "Calm before the storm." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, canderson said: It’s a gorgeous day. We went on a long 4 mile walk and I actually got warm. I am FINALLY getting the boxed Christmas stuff out of the garage. I have a stray cat or two I will let in there if we end up getting a foot or more of snow. But yes beautiful day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Bust potential with Miller Bs last until it’s actually taking place. Sooo many moving parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 And we just got bumped 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Wmsptwx said: Bust potential with Miller Bs last until it’s actually taking place. Sooo many moving parts. True but what do you call a bust we get a great front end thump? There is not a single model telling us that otherwise and other than the NAM 18z it is even better with the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, paweather said: True but what do you call a bust we get a great front end thump? There is not a single model telling us that otherwise and other than the NAM 18z it is even better with the coastal. For here anything more than 4 or 5 isn’t a bust, for LSV I’d say anything more than 7 or 8 from this would be good total. Bust would be if thump erodes and coastal low gets going too far north and east and we end up with lower end advisory stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 This will piss some off, but the nam will probably catch on at 18z tomorrow. Just saying. Some love the nam. Not me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: For here anything more than 4 or 5 isn’t a bust, for LSV I’d say anything more than 7 or 8 from this would be good total. Bust would be if thump erodes and coastal low gets going too far north and east and we end up with lower end advisory stuff. Gotcha. Miller B's are always real time events. We get excited because of the consistency we are seeing in models with high end totals but your right this could bust lower end. Still better off than 2020. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Now back to our normal programming. LOL. I'll take the ICON as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 RGEM is indeed still a mauling for S/E PA and S/C PA. Consistent with keep one area of pressure falls much longer into the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: RGEM is indeed still a mauling for S/E PA I only have it out to 30. But looks good. ** That convection down south is crazy on the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoralRed Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 hours ago, canderson said: This will be a fluffy snow right? As the official shoveler I was wondering the same thing, especially as the totals have gone up. What does everyone think? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, paweather5 said: 30" LOL. Will wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Those 30-40" totals in the Eastern LSV would really make me smile for you guys over there. Makes the hobby worth it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Those 30-40" totals in the Eastern LSV would really make me smile for you guys over there. Makes the hobby worth it. No matter what happens it has been worth it for years as a hobby for me. Thanks Bubbler, as anything this can go either way as any storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 I think @paweather @pasnownut @AllWeather would need a cigarette if the RGEM verified. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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