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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021


MAG5035
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7 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

As allweather was saying earlier, it’s a balancing act to deliver the right message but to put 14” here as upper end 10% doesn’t get it.   

This escalated rapidly. Up until yesterday there weren't very many model runs with the big totals.. with only really the Euro having that run or two with the 30"+ (down in VA/DC). Everything's coming back to slowing/stalling that low closer to the coast right in the zone we need it. Add in that tremendous easterly flow and warmer than average Atlantic and suddenly we're burying folks on all the models. 

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Just now, MAG5035 said:

This escalated rapidly. Up until yesterday there weren't very many model runs with the big totals.. with only really the Euro having that run or two with the 30"+ (down in VA/DC). Everything's coming back to slowing/stalling that low closer to the coast right in the zone we need it. Add in that tremendous easterly flow and warmer than average Atlantic and suddenly we're burying folks on all the models. 

Good point.   Things are ramping up quickly and at the right time.  Right before game time 

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10 minutes ago, AllWeather said:

I agree, and those numbers will probably change with today's full 12z suite in (or maybe after 00z tonight). 

Communicating this information to the average Joe is a science in itself. If you prepare people for a 6"+ snow, they typically will hunker down anyways. Then if totals go higher, it doesn't really affect them too much more other than additional clean up because they were already prepped to lay low (obviously if it's a crusher storm, the clean up can linger for days). On the contrary, if you prep people for a blockbuster, and it goes bust - well that affects people in a variety of socioeconomic ways (i.e. they closed their businesses when they didn't have to, took off work to stay home with their kids, etc). 

These forecasters must walk a fine line....it's easier for the public to understand if you go conservative and get surprised. However pitchforks are way more likely to come out if you overblow it and get surprised the other way. 

The boy that cried wolf Syndrome

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19 minutes ago, paweather said:

Mag - have you ever seen gray/black on a snow map? As long as I have been following winter I can't remember a time. 

I don't know if I ever saw such a big area of 40"+ on even the Canadian, which can put out some crazy stuff. The ratio isn't crazy either. Harrisburg gets 3.38" of QPF for a pretty reasonable 12:1 average through the event. Is that much QPF reasonable? I dunno about that yet. But still.. you can get to two feet pretty easily with 1.5-2" and good ratios. 

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Just now, MAG5035 said:

I don't know if I ever saw such a big area of 40"+ on even the Canadian, which can put out some crazy stuff. The ratio isn't crazy either. Harrisburg gets 3.38" of QPF for a pretty reasonable 12:1 average through the event. Is that much QPF reasonable? I dunno about that yet. But still.. you can get to two feet pretty easily with 1.5-2" and good ratios. 

Thanks Mag. This is surreal as a snow lover whether I will be disappointed at the end or not. 

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1 minute ago, canderson said:

Early afternoon it looks like. 

Yep going to vary the first shot of snow is coming from the primary which will be light to moderate during the day Sunday. Second shot will be the coastal, which as modeled right now will be the heaviest Sunday night into Monday night. 

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Just now, paweather said:

Yep going to vary the first shot of snow is coming from the primary which will be light to moderate during the day Sunday. Second shot will be the coastal, which as modeled right now will be the heaviest Sunday night into Monday night. 

So condition might be pretty hazardous till2:00am on Monday?

 

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