Cashtown_Coop Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 5 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Here is the CTP “ High End Amount” snow map. Seems low for the high end. Isn’t this suppose to be the 10th percentile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Cashtown_Coop said: Seems low for the high end. I’ll take it for now... it seems kind of aggressive for them at this range. I’m sure it will change 20 times by Monday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: I’ll take it for now... it seems kind of aggressive for them at this range. I’m sure it will change 20 times by Monday! I’m saying for the general public, today is the last day before storm starts. Theres plenty of models showing crippling amounts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 @Blizzard of 93how about the 6z euro. Insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mshaffer526 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Catching up on things... Who would have thought we'd go from worried about suppression to possibly hoping for a little bit of it? Would like things to stabilize a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 9 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: @Blizzard of 93how about the 6z euro. Insane I don't get off hour euro maps. What are they showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, Mshaffer526 said: Catching up on things... Who would have thought we'd go from worried about suppression to possibly hoping for a little bit of it? Would like things to stabilize a bit. I think what we root for is a little earlier capture of the low to get the ccb cranking before it gets to north and causes a screw zone somewhere 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, Voyager said: I don't get off hour euro maps. What are they showing? From MA forum 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, Cashtown_Coop said: From MA forum It has the look of a potential classic for CTP ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 The 6z GFS was amazing as well for CTP! Great agreement between the Euro & GFS so close to game time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 9 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: From MA forum Wow!!! Thanks! Obviously nothing is etched in stone yet with this storm, but now I've got mixed feelings about flying out tomorrow. I may miss a classic...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 5 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The 6z GFS was amazing as well for CTP!Great agreement between the Euro & GFS so close to game The axis of both those models are very similar. The area where the north / south axis meets the east / west ccb band will be the jackpot zone. You can also see the screw zone setting up to the southwest of me toward north Virginia. Edit: unless the ccb band stalls somewhere and dumps at the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Can we get MAG his 20 incher for all his hard work? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Atomixwx said: Can we get MAG his 20 incher for all his hard work? Models wrap that 1.50” contour toward him it’s very doable with the higher ratios out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Weather Channel has a 12-18” forecast running from me to philly. I approve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Cashtown_Coop said: Weather Channel has a 12-18” forecast running from me to philly. I approve Graphic guy got a talking to about that 2-3 feet from yesterday when everything seemed bleak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Atomixwx said: Graphic guy got a talking to about that 2-3 feet from yesterday when everything seemed bleak. Lol yeah the pink was taken away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 I think models are finally starting to fill in this precip shield between the transferring lows in realization of that major easterly fetch off the ocean between the system and the blocking pattern. The setup's just too good with that established 850mb primary low tracking just under PA and transferring. Look at the 850mb jet just nosed right through PA. Couldn't ask for much better placement of that 850mb low. No doubt MAG. I’ve been watching the track of the 7H and 85H lows very closely for the last few days I’m noticing a positive trend in that regard for a more widespread precip field, which is something I was entertaining the idea of early yesterday. The dynamics and overall low to mid-level moisture transport are classic for extensive precip on the NW side of the low, as well as further due north due to the intense 7H frontogen as the 700mb low strengthens, in tandem with the surface low due to increased jet coupling off the the coast. A track of the low between Wallops Island to Cape May latitude would place the eastern LLJ right through southern PA, eventually up to I-80 corridor through the eastern half of the state. It’s a great setup for significant snowfall and MECS probabilities increase for those that are fortunate to get into the CCB as it matures and pivots once the storm occludes. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, MillvilleWx said: No doubt MAG. I’ve been watching the track of the 7H and 85H lows very closely for the last few days I’m noticing a positive trend in that regard for a more widespread precip field, which is something I was entertaining the idea of early yesterday. The dynamics and overall low to mid-level moisture transport are classic for extensive precip on the NW side of the low, as well as further due north due to the intense 7H frontogen as the 700mb low strengthens, in tandem with the surface low due to increased jet coupling off the the coast. A track of the low between Wallops Island to Cape May latitude would place the eastern LLJ right through southern PA, eventually up to I-80 corridor through the eastern half of the state. It’s a great setup for significant snowfall and MECS probabilities increase for those that are fortunate to get into the CCB as it matures and pivots once the storm occludes. . In the CCB, what snow rates would be expected 2-4”/hr? Also is thunder snow possible 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 In the CCB, what snow rates would be expected 2-4”/hr? Also is thunder snow possible I would think 2-4”/hr is doable for the max potential, but extended 1-2”/hr is all but a given and it’ll be slow to move. Whoever is fortunate enough to get into the CCB will be puking dendrites for hrs on end and 18-24” becomes more the reality. I like EPA up into Central NJ for that potential, however, there will be secondary maxes away from the CCB due to 700-500mb frontogen as the ULL passage to the south and crank off the coast as the storm stacks. That’s where somewhere in true CPA out to MAG can get a mini jack from the increased forcing, orographic enhancement, and high ratio fluff that accumulates efficiently. I like your area for 10-15” with upside to 18” where you sit. Should be a fun storm! As for thunder snow, I like EPA and Central NJ as the best chance for that. It’s all but a given someone will have some and it’s likely within the heart of the CCB. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 8 hours ago, Treckasec said: Definitely a weenie run, but I thought I'd post this for archival purposes... brings a tear to my eyes. Thx for sharing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: I would think 2-4”/hr is doable for the max potential, but extended 1-2”/hr is all but a given and it’ll be slow to move. Whoever is fortunate enough to get into the CCB will be puking dendrites for hrs on end and 18-24” because more the reality. I like EPA up into Central NJ for that potential, however, there will be secondary maxes away from the CCB due to 700-500mb frontogen as the ULL passage to the south and crank off the coast as the storm stacks. That’s where somewhere in true CPA out to MAG can get a mini jack from the increased forcing, orographic enhancement, and high ratio fluff that accumulates efficiently. I like your area for 10-15” with upside to 18” where you sit. Should be a fun storm! As for thunder snow, I like EPA and Central NJ as the best chance for that. It’s all but a given someone will have some and it’s likely within the heart of the CCB. . Perfect. My bar is 12” and anything more would be a welcomed bonus. Thanks for the insight ! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 wow. actually Quote 50 minutes ago, Voyager said: Wow!!! Thanks! Obviously nothing is etched in stone yet with this storm, but now I've got mixed feelings about flying out tomorrow. I may miss a classic...lol. in the jackpot zone on the euro for 2 feet in Macungie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 @AllWeather I miss watching you on wgal. I can picture you talking about the storm and trying to keep your inner weenie from getting out to the public. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 59 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: From MA forum Thats a really nice and reasonable snapshot of what we should expect (with a few surprises thrown in). As suggested yesterday and by Mag earlier, it look like the precip panels are filling in a bit to reflect the eastery fetch that often is not picked up until we near go time. Hoping the goalposts dont move much today and even if they do move, most in this forum are staring down the barrel of a loaded snow gun. My bar has been 6-10 since Wed. and I'm sticking to it....anything more is just fantastic (although I know the upside could be 3-6" higher based on overnights. Great convos in here the last few days. Let's bring this one home gang. Looking forward to todays runs, and the excitement that comes w/ biggies like this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 29 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: No doubt MAG. I’ve been watching the track of the 7H and 85H lows very closely for the last few days I’m noticing a positive trend in that regard for a more widespread precip field, which is something I was entertaining the idea of early yesterday. The dynamics and overall low to mid-level moisture transport are classic for extensive precip on the NW side of the low, as well as further due north due to the intense 7H frontogen as the 700mb low strengthens, in tandem with the surface low due to increased jet coupling off the the coast. A track of the low between Wallops Island to Cape May latitude would place the eastern LLJ right through southern PA, eventually up to I-80 corridor through the eastern half of the state. It’s a great setup for significant snowfall and MECS probabilities increase for those that are fortunate to get into the CCB as it matures and pivots once the storm occludes. . Thanks for "stopping in". Always great to have you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 caught up reading from over night. as always great input from the usual suspects!! looking good men! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 When there is a 90% chance you don't get less than this....I'm....well......I'm in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Amazing overnight runs. Let's bring it home! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 6z EPS continues to ramp up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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