pasnownut Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 18 minutes ago, anotherman said: @pasnownut your positive vibes have worked so far. Lol. While I’m obviously wishin this one in....I’m actually believing the stuff I feel and just hope my stance holds merit. We’re not there yet, but obviously going in the right direction. now back to a slope side beer before my old ass gets back on the slopes with my kid. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 will there be wind with this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anduril Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, mahantango#1 said: will there be wind with this storm? Later Monday when the coastal fully takes over yea there should be some wind but mainly closer to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: will there be wind with this storm? A bit but nothing like we had the last two days. Probably gusts to upper 20s unless you’re in east Lancaster county imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 The 18z GEFS had a LSV jackpot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Most of these 18z GEFS ensemble members would work for me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: Most of these 18z GEFS ensemble members would work for me! P13 works Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
intentionallove Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 This is all looking quite lovely! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 The 18z EPS also made a nice bump north in terms of overall precip & snow. We are trending in the right direction as game time is approaching! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 The 18z EPS mean low track looks good & it has several west leaning individual ensemble members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 NAM's crushing through 51 so far, secondary low showing over VA beach. This is probably going to be pretty big. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: NAM's crushing through 51 so far, secondary low showing over VA beach. This is probably going to be pretty big. I love it when @MAG5035 talks dirty to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: NAM's crushing through 51 so far, secondary low showing over VA beach. This is probably going to be pretty big. For Mag to post like this I don't need even look at it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 Well, okay getting some mix into the Sus Valley. Now we're looking NAM-y haha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, MAG5035 said: Well, okay getting some mix into the Sus Valley. Now we're looking NAM-y haha. Mix to CTP and dry slot. Hmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Mix to CTP and dry slot. Hmm... it's still not bad. the coastal didn't even get started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, paweather said: it's still not bad. the coastal didn't even get started. Not saying good or bad but very different. Actually a lot of big snows do mix the whole way up to CTP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Not saying good or bad but very different. Actually a lot of big snows do mix the whole way up to CTP. Just wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Not saying good or bad but very different. Actually a lot of big snows do mix the whole way up to CTP. Considering where the coastal's at off the VA and Delmarva coast, it's really punching the mix into PA pretty far. It has a really intense 850 mb jet that looks like it advects in near to slightly above zero 850 temps in the LSV. 925mb and surface stay well below freezing. Would probably be mostly sleet. This looks like a classic really amped NAM run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Considering where the coastal's at off the VA and Delmarva coast, it's really punching the mix into PA pretty far. It has a really intense 850 mb jet that looks like it advects in near to slightly above zero 850 temps in the LSV. 925mb and surface stay well below freezing. Would probably be mostly sleet. This looks like a classic really amped NAM run. I am on my phone on TT so the 850's have not updated yet but the dry slot was a bit of a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Solid run with a lot more solid coverage including up to Williamsport. 14" for me...I'll take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 Still a huge run for everyone, the deform does get back into most of the Sus Valley late in the storm. Throwing up both 10:1 and Kuchera: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 The NAM is a capture. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 The NAM looks like the ideal Miller B without any weird hiccups. The question: does it happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 8 minutes ago, paweather said: The NAM is a capture. It appears to be the same dual structure system we have been seeing for a few days now. One piece of it appears tucked while the other is east of Mass. Goes to explain the fairly pedestrian qpf totals for a SLP sitting just to our S/E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 As everything trends north today, DT goes south: Can someone explain to me what happens between the 8" purple line and the 8-12" red line? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 13 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Still a huge run for everyone, the deform does get back into most of the Sus Valley late in the storm. Throwing up both 10:1 and Kuchera: Love it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: As everything trends north today, DT goes south: Can someone explain to me what happens between the 8" purple line and the 8-12" red line? When I saw the map on Facebook, I was wondering the same thing. What's the difference in the two zones? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, Voyager said: When I saw the map on Facebook, I was wondering the same thing. What's the difference in the two zones? Nothing other than DT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 6 minutes ago, Voyager said: When I saw the map on Facebook, I was wondering the same thing. What's the difference in the two zones? Guess he expects a uniform 8" in that zone haha, should either make the 8" a 6 inch line or bump up the low number of the 8-12". Oh well It's just the first guess map, although he had a map out yesterday so I suppose that one was the first guess on the first guess map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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