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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021


MAG5035
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1 minute ago, canderson said:

If I get 6” out of this I’ll be pleased. Less I’ll be sad but not really mad. More I’ll be ecstatic  But half a foot seems reasonable. 

I agree with this. I set my bar too high seeing the big totals earlier on the models. But everything is still in play and will be until game time. Models will likely be all over the place especially with Miller B's. It could be a monster hit, to a medium 6-8" hit, to a bust. If it is a car topper please band me canderson. :D

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17 minutes ago, canderson said:

If I get 6” out of this I’ll be pleased. Less I’ll be sad but not really mad. More I’ll be ecstatic  But half a foot seems reasonable. 

This is going to have a nice snowfall swath but I don't think this is going to have the high top end potential of the December system. With that said, we're getting pretty close to meso range and it's likely there's going to be some imbedded meso features in this precip shield that show up and probably bolster some totals.

I'm liking a general 8-14" where the handoff pivots the precip shield without slotting, which I think at the moment roughly favors the southern tier east of US 219 and from US 22 and south down into the I-70 corridor in Northern MD. 4-8" is between that and I-80 and 2-5" above, with the lower side of the range NE PA. I think all of SW PA below I-80 could see a 4-8" type event if there's no mixing issues, which models have been bringing that primary south some. That would basically be how I'd draw my snowmap at the moment if I were to do so. 

Could there be bigger totals? Yea, but I think it stays under 20". 

 

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1 minute ago, MAG5035 said:

This is going to have a nice snowfall swath but I don't think this is going to have the high top end potential of the December system. With that said, we're getting pretty close to meso range and it's likely there's going to be some imbedded meso features in this precip shield that show up and probably bolster some totals.

I'm liking a general 8-14" where the handoff pivots the precip shield without slotting, which I think at the moment roughly favors the southern tier east of US 219 and from US 22 and south down into the I-70 corridor in Northern MD. 4-8" is between that and I-80 and 2-5" above, with the lower side of the range NE PA. I think all of SW PA below I-80 could see a 4-8" type event if there's no mixing issues, which models have been bringing that primary south some. That would basically be how I'd draw my snowmap at the moment if I were to do so. 

Could there be bigger totals? Yea, but I think it stays under 20". 

 

Thanks Mag for your thoughts. 

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5 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

This is going to have a nice snowfall swath but I don't think this is going to have the high top end potential of the December system. With that said, we're getting pretty close to meso range and it's likely there's going to be some imbedded meso features in this precip shield that show up and probably bolster some totals.

I'm liking a general 8-14" where the handoff pivots the precip shield without slotting, which I think at the moment roughly favors the southern tier east of US 219 and from US 22 and south down into the I-70 corridor in Northern MD. 4-8" is between that and I-80 and 2-5" above, with the lower side of the range NE PA. I think all of SW PA below I-80 could see a 4-8" type event if there's no mixing issues, which models have been bringing that primary south some. That would basically be how I'd draw my snowmap at the moment if I were to do so. 

Could there be bigger totals? Yea, but I think it stays under 20". 

 

Thanks for the write up!! I’ve been seeing somerset getting hammered while fayette county ridges are dry slotting I believe 

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Just now, paweather said:

It's a tease. LOL. 

According to most people the whole Nam is a tease.  Every other model can jump around run to run and people take it seriously but almost every post about the Nam on the MA is proceeded with 'I know its the Nam but...".   I looked and cannot find verifications scores on Meso's but I would be surprised if the Nam was not number 1.

 

Decent WAA on the Nam this run. 

 

 

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Just now, Bubbler86 said:

According to most people the whole Nam is a tease.  Every other model can jump around run to run and people take it seriously but almost every post about the Nam on the MA is proceeded with 'I know its the Nam but...".   I looked and cannot find verifications scores on Meso's but I would be surprised if the Nam was not number 1.

 

Decent WAA on the Nam this run. 

 

 

This is a weird run though 54 to 60 what is happening. But it is definitely a good hit. 

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1 minute ago, paweather said:

This is a weird run though 54 to 60 what is happening. But it is definitely a good hit. 

Whether it is due to it being a Miller B or other factors I am not the final solution will ever be modeled correctly so I still am of the opinion that anyone in the southern half of PA is open to 12+ inch's right now. 

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