Itstrainingtime Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 6 minutes ago, paweather said: I think we should feel the most confident of a good front end thump. I don't. I'm not sure how those of us this far north and east can feel good about it at all - look at what just happened several days ago. That is some serious confluence draining SE out of New England. Not saying we don't thump, but I'm not putting money on it happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: I don't. I'm not sure how those of us this far north and east can feel good about it at all - look at what just happened several days ago. That is some serious confluence draining SE out of New England. Not saying we don't thump, but I'm not putting money on it happening. The Primary has been modeled for over a week now. We aren't losing that feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Exactly, confluence seems stronger each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Deform bad at 78 wow some will be happy and miles away will be sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, paweather said: Deform bad at 78 wow some will be happy and miles away will be sad. Someone is @Cashtown_Cooping in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 There we go: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, paweather said: Deform bad at 78 wow some will be happy and miles away will be sad. I'm happy too! 10" same as December storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, paweather said: There we go: If you're north of US 22 on that run, enjoy the sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Oops, more came into Tuesday. Up to 14" now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Atomixwx said: If you're north of US 22 on that run, enjoy the sunshine. narrow band that brings the goods. Euro was similar in that it doesn’t have an expansive precip shield. Heartache for someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Atomixwx said: If you're north of US 22 on that run, enjoy the sunshine. Verbatim yes, but you have to think a low that close to the coast is going to throw back more moisture than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, paweather said: The Primary has been modeled for over a week now. We aren't losing that feature. We shall see. I hope you are right! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Congrats S PA: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: We shall see. I hope you are right! 9 to 11" all of Lanco. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: We shall see. I hope you are right! I do too, but Miller B's stink. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Talk about not knowing what to think. The plot thickens... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, CarlislePaWx said: 9 to 11" all of Lanco. How much of that is from the WAA vs. the coastal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 What a cutoff. This is going to be an agonizing storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: How much of that is from the WAA vs. the coastal? Looks like 50/50. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, paweather said: What a cutoff. This is going to be an agonizing storm. Like 75 miles between 20 and 2. Less than ideal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, GrandmasterB said: Like 75 miles between 20 and 2. Less than ideal! That was the February 10, 2010 storm. There was a 30 mile gradient between needing a skid loader and being able to get the job done with a shop vac. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Well fear not CMC is up next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 This bust written all over it for a ton of people. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, canderson said: This bust written all over it for a ton of people. Isn't that what the B stands for? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, canderson said: This bust written all over it for a ton of people. Just gotta hope for the Primary to do it's job. And then Sunday night look out the window to see if your in the coastal party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: That was the February 10, 2010 storm. There was a 30 mile gradient between needing a skid loader and being able to get the job done with a shop vac. Yup that was another one. The heavy echos were streaming north, and I radar watched all night long as they disintegrated when they hit the Berks/Schuylkill County line on the Blue Mountain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, canderson said: This bust written all over it for a ton of people. This. I laid out an idea going into last Monday about how I could see a path to us getting nothing this week. We ended up getting pretty much nothing. I still fear the WAA weakens before reaching us, the coastal whiffs east, and we're looking at little ground truth come early next week. For those west of say I-83 I think the WAA delivers a decent thump. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Isn't that what the B stands for? Yup. I'm not counting on any coastal snow from this. Primary/WAA is the only thing I'd trust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Why do these primaries always die just in time to kill WAA for central pa? I think south of turnpike and east of York county line have best shot at coastal precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Wmsptwx said: Why do these primaries always die just in time to kill WAA for central pa? I think south of turnpike and east of York county line have best shot at coastal precip. The Allegheny front probably does a cracker jack job of killing primaries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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