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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021


MAG5035
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Lol what a clunker on the Euro, ouch. It's reverting to what it was mostly doing a couple days ago before the huge run last night at 0z, killing the primary precip in PA and ducking the coastal swath. Probably the furthest these ops have diverged from each other in the last few days. 

0z vs 12z 

1475335616_ScreenShot2021-01-29at1_21_08AM.thumb.png.b672f73570326f6d3468f93b25998dc5.png

 

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2 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Lol what a clunker on the Euro, ouch. It's reverting to what it was mostly doing a couple days ago before the huge run last night at 0z, killing the primary precip in PA and ducking the coastal swath. Probably the furthest these ops have diverged from each other in the last few days. 

0z vs 12z 

1475335616_ScreenShot2021-01-29at1_21_08AM.thumb.png.b672f73570326f6d3468f93b25998dc5.png

 

To quote a famous poster from the Mid Atlantic thread....”the Euro was a disaster!”

The Euro is on its own with this type of outcome. Do you think it is just one off run, especially when all other major guidance has the storm further north & west?

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20 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

To quote a famous poster from the Mid Atlantic thread....”the Euro was a disaster!”

The Euro is on its own with this type of outcome. Do you think it is just one off run, especially when all other major guidance has the storm further north & west?

It's gone south 4 runs in a row.

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3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

To quote a famous poster from the Mid Atlantic thread....”the Euro was a disaster!”

The Euro is on its own with this type of outcome. Do you think it is just one off run, especially when all other major guidance has the storm further north & west?

 I'm not sure, this was a huge shift from 12z. Like I said, this was what the Euro had been doing before it's big run last night at 0z, while the GFS was punching the primary almost to Cleveland and having all kinds of mixing problems. The GFS has shifted more toward a Canadian like primary track, but still looks like the model with the most mixing issues.

 Should note the Euro map i posted wasn't done in New England as eastern Mass gets crushed. But the heavy swath even ducks Philly and NYC. Pretty much gonna have to blend the ensembles tonight, these ops are all over the place with their snow swath. Figured we'd be starting to center this up but not tonight lol. Euro's probably too suppressed this run, and Canadian/Icon are probably too amped north. Almost looks like the GFS/GEFS/UKMET represents some kind of middle ground. Nothing else shaves off that precip shield in eastern PA like the Euro did... I don't buy that extreme of an erosion.  

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4 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

 I'm not sure, this was a huge shift from 12z. Like I said, this was what the Euro had been doing before it's big run last night at 0z, while the GFS was punching the primary almost to Cleveland and having all kinds of mixing problems. The GFS has shifted more toward a Canadian like primary track, but still looks like the model with the most mixing issues.

 Should note the Euro map i posted wasn't done in New England as eastern Mass gets crushed. But the heavy swath even ducks Philly and NYC. Pretty much gonna have to blend the ensembles tonight, these ops are all over the place with their snow swath. Figured we'd be starting to center this up but not tonight lol. Euro's probably too suppressed this run, and Canadian/Icon are probably too amped north. Almost looks like the GFS/GEFS/UKMET represents some kind of middle ground. Nothing else shaves off that precip shield in eastern PA like the Euro did... I don't buy that extreme of an erosion.  

Thanks, I agree that the blend of the 0z runs tonight is the best way to go at this time.

The Euro usually doesn’t have this much of an extreme drop off a Cliff like it did tonight, especially at this range. 

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0z Euro ensemble vs 18z, essentially the same. It's still the furthest south of the ensemble guidance but more in the ballpark of the other stuff. The Canadian ensemble mean (posted earlier) definitely didn't show any reflection of the crazy op run that had.  

1808835009_ScreenShot2021-01-29at2_08_48AM.thumb.png.e9220e521ed7f01811835530dd118f4e.png

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5 minutes ago, anotherman said:

It’s Euro against all the other models, if I’m not mistaken?

All models were trending towards the euro the last couple days so it will be interesting to see if the bleeding stops today or this slips away from us.  My guy still tells me this is a northern Maryland southern pa storm 

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