Blizzard of 93 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 30 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Der IKON is about 15-20 miles or so north of having a Wormleysburg bullseye of 24"+. I know that's all the briefing you need to hear haha. Most guidance remains very solid on 6"+ for C-PA below I-80. GFS tracks the primary more closely to the Euro now, starting to minimize mixing in the LSV last couple runs. The Euro was better getting precip from the primary into PA, which is a key part of elevating the totals where the precip shield pivots as the lows transfer. I’m not sure if anyone posted the 18z ICON... but it was a CTP crusher with a bullseye less than 30 miles from my house! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 The ICON on Weatherbell doesn’t offer Kuchera ratio, so amounts would be higher for many in this set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 The 18z GEFS is targeting the bullseye right over the Susquehanna Valley! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 "the Euro is dangerously close to missing the capture and escaping" (PSUHoffman) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: 18z Euro is further south per MA forum. Yea did not look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, daxx said: Yea did not look good. That's what I was afraid of. Also, the WAA is getting less and less on each run. (for us) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: "the Euro is dangerously close to missing the capture and escaping" (PSUHoffman) Fears becoming a thing. Can’t trust these, as many have said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: That's what I was afraid of. Also, the WAA is getting less and less on each run. (for us) Yea the waa was weak sauce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Too early to panic. All models have been trending toward a big storm as euro has showed for days for the euro to fumble at the goal line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 10 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Too early to panic. All models have been trending toward a big storm as euro has showed for days for the euro to fumble at the goal line. Maybe. But everything is shifting south in response to the confluence. If that eases up, we're okay. Right now, it gets stronger each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 10 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Too early to panic. All models have been trending toward a big storm as euro has showed for days for the euro to fumble at the goal line. Not panicking yet. The waa was not great. Only goes to 90. After that we may still get the goods. On to the 18z eps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 57 minutes ago, AllWeather said: Seems like it's all I have time for lately - the real estate market is INSANE right now. That being said... These Miller Bs are always butt clenchers....always. So many things can go wrong. That being said, I like the southern/southeastern half of the state per the ensembles. I also think with that anomalous fetch off the ocean, some underplaying in QPF on the globals is likely. Thanks for coming on! I am excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Honestly I’m just disliking the sure thing WAA is drying up because that was the money in the bank part of this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Here is the 18z Euro at hour 90 at the end of the run and also here is the 18z GFS for hour 90. I don’t see much of a difference. The GFS in the next several hours pulled the low back in closer to the coast and hammered us with the CCB as it stalled out and then slowly moved out. Still plenty of time for adjustments to the bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Doesn’t look awful, looks like good swath of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 37 minutes ago, canderson said: So, so so windy. I hate this. that gust about 10 minutes ago was legit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, sauss06 said: that gust about 10 minutes ago was legit We should be in a wind advisory. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, sauss06 said: that gust about 10 minutes ago was legit We had two good size limbs come down out back, definitely windy and bitter night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, canderson said: We should be in a wind advisory. Agreed. Boy is it bitter too, going from car to house was not enjoyable lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Blizz the GFS and Euro are pretty close. @90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 51 minutes ago, canderson said: So, so so windy. I hate this. Yes. I do too. It makes a tolerable cold day painful and miserable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 It looked like the Euro was heading for a somewhat further south heavy snow swath than it's 12z run, especially in eastern PA associated with the coastal low taking over. Looked like it was going to try to squeeze NE PA to some degree and stuff the heavy axis more toward the mason-dixon into northern MD and DC. Western PA is still seeing 6+ amounts through 90 with it still snowing. 18z Euro ensemble mean is south of 12z some overall with the heavy swath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 ok, the south thing can stop now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 8 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: ok, the south thing can stop now. I’m fearing this on 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 11 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: ok, the south thing can stop now. With each push south it's also getting weaker. We need the confluence to ease and hope for some ticks north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 With each push south it's also getting weaker. We need the confluence to ease and hope for some ticks north.I’m sure the GFS will oblige since it seems to be 2 or 3 days behind the Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Well here we go. 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 We got the Pacific, we Have the Northern Stream, we have the Atlantic. Triple Phaser in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 DT Chimes in. UGH. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 DT Chimes in. UGH. Too good to be true? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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