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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021


MAG5035
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Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

Prior to that, a lot of us mix taking the GFS verbatim. It takes the primary to Latrobe before dying it off. Everyone in the southern third of PA taints Sunday night/Monday morning before the coastal takes over. Ended up being a good run, but there are things to work out still. 

It does mix for about 6 hour or so but snowfall totals won't fail on this run. This is still a Sunday morning to Tuesday event. Long duration. 

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2 minutes ago, canderson said:

That GFS looks wonky but it still works out. Someone (GFS vs Euro) is gonna have to cave or be very wrong on how the storm unfolds. 

watching the progression, it is bowing to the King......and really should bring confidence up if the trend continues, as it's now only a few small moves away from dynamite.

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1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

Timely but too late.  :lol:.  Da boys already opened the gate...

The real issue is ignorance. And I don't use that word in a mean-spirited way. I know enough about weather to ignore snow maps. Honestly, I don't really spend time looking at them much at all. That's my choice, I know that many love them, and that is great too!

The problem, bigger scale, is when a map is posted and put out there for people that know nothing about the weather. They see an outlandish map, and automatically, it becomes a forecast. That's the problem. It's not in this forum, it's with the public at large. (and how they're perceived)

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1 minute ago, paweather said:

Probably talking about these Off Weather Forecasting sites. I cannot remember the names of them that would post snowmaps on social media sites days and days ahead of a storm to get attention. Gosh what were some of the names of those. 

S&S Stormchasers. The creators of social media hysteria with snow maps. 

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Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

The real issue is ignorance. And I don't use that word in a mean-spirited way. I know enough about weather to ignore snow maps. Honestly, I don't really spend time looking at them much at all. That's my choice, I know that many love them, and that is great too!

The problem, bigger scale, is when a map is posted and put out there for people that know nothing about the weather. They see an outlandish map, and automatically, it becomes a forecast. That's the problem. It's not in this forum, it's with the public at large. (and how they're perceived)

You cannot show snow maps to those who don't understand the fact that all it is is an educated guess.  The fact of the matter is that the general public still thinks a weather forecast is not a forecast, but a fact that WILL happen.

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6 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Lol, I wasn't trying to imply anything in here since this is where we discuss such things. I just noticed that post came out right around when the GFS did.  

lols.  I know but Im wondering if they are trolling us in here and nervous that we run social media websites that put this crazy stuff out :P

....when in reality were just a bunch of cool dudes/dudettes? that enjoy talkin weather.  

I'm just playful right now, because having the GFS trending better is a big boost in confidence.  

edit -  as they say in the MA thread...NINJA'd....like multiple times over.

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GFS offers up a good representation of what I've been trying to explain about the handoff of the primary to the coastal. We gotta get into the thick of the initial precip wave of the primary, transfer the low and pivot the shield over us. If we do that, this is probably a really nice snowstorm for everyone in here. And even if it mixes southern tier, those folks are in the best position from the winding coastal low stalling. The Euro is starting to come around to this a bit better and the 0z last night was about perfect switching that primary 850mb low to the coast. It didn't dip the low as much. Euro ensembles at 6z this morning and 6z control run still seem to favor the southern tier and neighboring Mid-Atlantic and still seem weak with the precip shield in between the transfer. 

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