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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021


MAG5035
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51 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Hey everyone, quick idea.   If things keep looking like snow, I think it would be fun to have a snow contest for the area.  Pick something like 5 sites and see who can guess the total snowfall for those places.   Start a spreadsheet and tally up the numbers.   Like this post if you want to participate or respond directly to my post.   If we get 10 players I’ll get it going.  

Up to 6 players counting me.  Good response for the first hour.   

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4 minutes ago, canderson said:

So what do we need to look for to lose this storm? 

I think it fair to say that there is enough consensus that we have a storm coming.  

Current goalposts are as follows

left post - primary hangs on too long-wrecks thermals, delayed transfer to coast, sloppy transfer to coast-think miller b jip zone

right post - coastal tucks inland and SE Pa sees mixing issues, coastal pops too late and its congrats NJ, coastal too far ots and pulls best snows too far east

Current feeling is that we are sitting pretty here in central and eastern Pa.  (if one blends EPS and GFS).  While enough big hits are showing up, I'd still think a 4-8" deal is rather likely, and there is enough wiggle room remaining to keep that in play, unless we start seeing something trend away from what most models are showing.  its not like we are pulling for 1 model, as they all have something decent to offer.

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1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

I think it fair to say that there is enough consensus that we have a storm coming.  

Current goalposts are as follows

left post - primary hangs on too long-wrecks thermals, delayed transfer to coast, sloppy transfer to coast-think miller b jip zone

right post - coastal tucks inland and SE Pa sees mixing issues, coastal pops too late and its congrats NJ, coastal too far ots and pulls best snows too far east

Current feeling is that we are sitting pretty here in central and eastern Pa.  (if one blends EPS and GFS).  While enough big hits are showing up, I'd still think a 4-8" deal is rather likely, and there is enough wiggle room remaining to keep that in play, unless we start seeing something trend away from what most models are showing.  its not like we are pulling for 1 model, as they all have something decent to offer.

Good right up and agree. I think this is going to be a game time solution. Miller B's always seem to put the models back and forth with their final solution and evolution. 

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8 minutes ago, paweather said:

ICON not a bad start. But could be close to a changeover in the LSV. 

verbatim.....we taint.

Early panels showed a more norther solution in midwest.  Keep both eyes on that.  Primary needs to die a timely death or just not be too strong so that we get overrunning and not cooked thermals while waiting for coastal to pop 

12z held onto primary longer, but looks to recover and coastal starts to take over and save the day 

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2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

verbatim.....we taint.

Early panels showed a more norther solution in midwest.  Keep both eyes on that.  Primary needs to die a timely death or just not be too strong so that we get overrunning and not cooked thermals while waiting for coastal to pop 

Yep. GFS might be following suit. 

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14 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

I may regret this later, but I’ll take the ICON solution right now.  Good initial thump, bangs the coastal hard, definitely risk taint with it super tucked but if guarantees a nice hit.  I don’t like The east, or late sloppy phase option.

I agree. And even though I said that I wasn't worried about taint last night, give me a super-amped bomb and I'll take all the QPF (and some taint) that comes with it. 

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I like how no one mentioned the 0z Euro op run overnight and this morning. That was def a way to lose the storm lol. The confluence to the NE is going to be another piece of this. Theres a pretty deep 500mb low passage that drops SE through New England over the weekend and gives us a glancing shot at some arctic air. It appears the Euro lags at clearing that feature out vs the GFS, which redirects the primary system southeast and really prevents that initial wave of precip getting into PA... depending mainly on the coastal development which with the pattern alignment likely would limit how much of the region saw significant snow.

I know we all seem to be scared of Miller-B's in here but we're probably not going to see a widespread big snowstorm in the subforum with this setup unless the primary gets close enough to get PA into the good precip. Then ideally the transfer to the Delmarva will hang the precip shield over PA and the coastal does the rest. The slot doesn't come into play unless the primary and handoff comes in too high, and I don't really think it's going to happen here. For now, the Euro ensemble guidance seems like a decent compromise between the op trying to stuff the storm under us and the GFS/GEFS skirting that high line of mixing the southern tier. 

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1 minute ago, MAG5035 said:

I like how no one mentioned the 0z Euro op run overnight and this morning. That was def a way to lose the storm lol. The confluence to the NE is going to be another piece of this. Theres a pretty deep 500mb low passage that drops SE through New England over the weekend and gives us a glancing shot at some arctic air. It appears the Euro lags at clearing that feature out vs the GFS, which redirects the primary system southeast and really prevents that initial wave of precip getting into PA... depending mainly on the coastal development which with the pattern alignment likely would limit how much of the region saw significant snow.

I know we all seem to be scared of Miller-B's in here but we're probably not going to see a widespread big snowstorm in the subforum with this setup unless the primary gets close enough to get PA into the good precip. Then ideally the transfer to the Delmarva will hang the precip shield over PA and the coastal does the rest. The slot doesn't come into play unless the primary and handoff comes in too high, and I don't really think it's going to happen here. For now, the Euro ensemble guidance seems like a decent compromise between the op trying to stuff the storm under us and the GFS/GEFS skirting that high line of mixing the southern tier. 

Thats EXACTLY what i worry about.  

 

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