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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021


MAG5035
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You really have to love the entire run of the 18Z GFS.  There appears to be at least 3 more snowfalls in the second half of the run.  The best news really is that a few days ago the model had a significant warmup hitting us after Feb 1st.  Now it has totally changed with the majority of the 15 days cold.  The coldest air of the season with 850's around -20C arrive here on D14, Feb 8th.  Have to say a very encouraging run overall.

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27 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

You really have to love the entire run of the 18Z GFS.  There appears to be at least 3 more snowfalls in the second half of the run.  The best news really is that a few days ago the model had a significant warmup hitting us after Feb 1st.  Now it has totally changed with the majority of the 15 days cold.  The coldest air of the season with 850's around -20C arrive here on D14, Feb 8th.  Have to say a very encouraging run overall.

That was a great 18z GFS run. The end of the run looks very cold as you mentioned. Multiple winter storm chances and even 1 more threat moving into the central states at the end of the run that would hit us the following day or 2.

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56 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

You really have to love the entire run of the 18Z GFS.  There appears to be at least 3 more snowfalls in the second half of the run.  The best news really is that a few days ago the model had a significant warmup hitting us after Feb 1st.  Now it has totally changed with the majority of the 15 days cold.  The coldest air of the season with 850's around -20C arrive here on D14, Feb 8th.  Have to say a very encouraging run overall.

Just great. The 8th is my birthday and I was going to have a big picnic and pool party that day...

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2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Hopefully the 12z runs juice back up the Monday night & Tuesday event so we can get a decent front end s pa thump before we mix.

Nam coming in strong glancing at ma forum.   WPC showing .50” to .75” contour for sw pa over to about me.   Hopefully things juice up a little more.   

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I don't often disagree with CTP on being too high on snow amounts but that's where I'm at today. Just don't think the 3-6" area is going to cover a majority of the CWA and almost all of the guidance is way more limited. We need the heavier precip up front to get anywhere near those numbers, otherwise this is looking like a T-2" with a messy mix for most with a narrow 3-5" swath somewhere. There seems to be a split between the heavier WAA precip (what we need for the front end snow) staying south and the precip with dying parent low staying somewhat north.  The only thing that really supports what CTP has out and has a better push of the WAA precip into the area so for today is the NAM/SREF. It looks like CTP is going fairly close with the SREF with a bit less than that in the southern tier.

sref-all-mean-pennsylvania-total_snow_10to1-1694800.thumb.png.6b404b4f7ba2c9e079c693c09a735c6f.pngStormTotalSnow.thumb.png.b1e865d6e983094e04e0d7bd94323aad.png

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, MAG5035 said:

I don't often disagree with CTP on being too high on snow amounts but that's where I'm at today. Just don't think the 3-6" area is going to cover a majority of the CWA and almost all of the guidance is way more limited. We need the heavier precip up front to get anywhere near those numbers, otherwise this is looking like a T-2" with a messy mix for most with a narrow 3-5" swath somewhere. There seems to be a split between the heavier WAA precip (what we need for the front end snow) staying south and the precip with dying parent low staying somewhat north.  The only thing that really supports what CTP has out and has a better push of the WAA precip into the area so for today is the NAM/SREF. It looks like CTP is going fairly close with the SREF with a bit less than that in the southern tier.

sref-all-mean-pennsylvania-total_snow_10to1-1694800.thumb.png.6b404b4f7ba2c9e079c693c09a735c6f.pngStormTotalSnow.thumb.png.b1e865d6e983094e04e0d7bd94323aad.png

 

 

 

I was going to dust off the SREF and post it a little earlier! Maybe this old school model will pull out the win for this storm?

Hopefully the short range models will lock back in to the juicer WAA front end look that they had showed previously over the last few days. 
We still have over 24 hours until the event begins, so there is time for another adjustment.

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