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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021


MAG5035
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For the next six hours the GFS has me as the southern jackpot for the next storm.  Both 10:1 and Kuchera give me 10", which would be fascinating if that happened because that's the same amount I had for the December storm.  Other interesting thing is that the duration of the storm is almost 36 hours.  It begins around 7:00pm Monday afternoon and doesn't stop until 1:00am Wednesday morning although the bulk of it falls during the first 24 hours.  I like storms that last for 24+ hours since that doesn't happen all that frequently.

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7 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

For the next six hours the GFS has me as the southern jackpot for the next storm.  Both 10:1 and Kuchera give me 10", which would be fascinating if that happened because that's the same amount I had for the December storm.  Other interesting thing is that the duration of the storm is almost 36 hours.  It begins around 7:00pm Monday afternoon and doesn't stop until 1:00am Wednesday morning although the bulk of it falls during the first 24 hours.  I like storms that last for 24+ hours since that doesn't happen all that frequently.

I'd like to see models back down a bit on the primary track, as they've been creeping up toward entering the primary into western PA. Like I mentioned before, the blocking pattern forces the secondary development SE of the the primary off the Mid-Atlantic.. creating an alignment that could somewhat favor the Sus Valley between I-80 and the turnpike holding frozen longer than that same zone in the central counties. Either way, there would likely be more widespread mixing with the GFS primary low track. Plus it lags a bit in getting a secondary going. North central is starting to look like the place to be for an all snow event. I still favor primarily frozen p-types (snow/sleet) east of the Laurels though. We'll have to watch the Laurels and LSV below the turnpike for some ZR as well. If models edge back south a bit this weekend, preferably keeping the primary tracking just below the mason-dixon when transfer occurs.. this probably becomes a mostly snow event for most of the subforum. I'm also eager to see how the NAM and other short range guidance handle the thermals once it gets firmly in range later this weekend. 

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1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Sort of...but areas around Binghamton had between 40-50" of snow, so we sort of shared the wealth with our neighbors up north. 

I consider Binghamton part of PA the same way I consider Hagerstown part of PA. They're too close to the border and too easily accessible to be in another state lol

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30 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

I'd like to see models back down a bit on the primary track, as they've been creeping up toward entering the primary into western PA. Like I mentioned before, the blocking pattern forces the secondary development SE of the the primary off the Mid-Atlantic.. creating an alignment that could somewhat favor the Sus Valley between I-80 and the turnpike holding frozen longer than that same zone in the central counties. Either way, there would likely be more widespread mixing with the GFS primary low track. Plus it lags a bit in getting a secondary going. North central is starting to look like the place to be for an all snow event. I still favor primarily frozen p-types (snow/sleet) east of the Laurels though. We'll have to watch the Laurels and LSV below the turnpike for some ZR as well. If models edge back south a bit this weekend, preferably keeping the primary tracking just below the mason-dixon when transfer occurs.. this probably becomes a mostly snow event for most of the subforum. I'm also eager to see how the NAM and other short range guidance handle the thermals once it gets firmly in range later this weekend. 

Like what you just said Mag might be some mixing issues on the EURO today S PA. 

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_5.png

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8 minutes ago, paweather said:

Thanks for posting that I couldn't after seeing it. Storm 2 is not looking good but there is still time for change. 

There's a LOT of time left. That was my point last night - too early to say it's going to snow, too early to say it's not. 

I'm still not super confident about Monday. 

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Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

There's a LOT of time left. That was my point last night - too early to say it's going to snow, too early to say it's not. 

I'm still not super confident about Monday. 

I feel better for Monday/Tuesday. There is at least consistency in the models with the exception of type of precip for us in the South but feel even for us as SuperStorm indicated a good thump of snow and then FR Drizzle. 

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CTP seems rather bullish for the coal region...

Monday
A chance of snow after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Monday Night
Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 23. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Tuesday
Snow likely, mainly before 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 31. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
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