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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021


MAG5035
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11 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I would sign up for the 0z Canadian for early next week.

 

5A2B9003-C105-4393-A19A-5E83EE4F1F81.png

F918AA80-3662-4F47-BD1C-628AA081863A.png

and 12hrs later

gem_asnow_neus_26.png

 

Point I'm trying to drive home is that players are on the field, but not sure who is qb (should be NAO- but his passer rating is not so good), and who is punter (we have several of them vying for said position.

Thats quite the shift in 6 hours.  GFS just went to "lost mode".  Is a storm coming....I think so, but as much as we follow this stuff, I cant say w/ too much confidence.  Euro stays on point, yeah that'll help, but it too had us snowing this week only 7 days ago.

 

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24 minutes ago, Superstorm said:


Seems like every model is against it. Even GEFS have been much different.


.

Bingo.......doesn't inspire alot of hope/comfort as consensus still lags inside 7 days. 

Fortunately every model cycle seems to have one or 2 ways to snow, but goalposts are boucing all around and Canderson is too afraid to step on the field to kick da ball.   

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and to further understand my concern.  Full disclosure this is a known GFS bias, so not totally surprised, but wrt DEC event, we had days and days of consensus.  Yes, a touchdown is still a possibility, and I'm not sure its a hail mary that is necessary, but the team needs to get their sh!t together soon.  GFS looks like shredmaggedon or suppression city for next 10 days.  Not even worried about the cutter it shows beyond that range.  

gfs_asnow_neus_27.png

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22 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

and to further understand my concern.  Full disclosure this is a known GFS bias, so not totally surprised, but wrt DEC event, we had days and days of consensus.  Yes, a touchdown is still a possibility, and I'm not sure its a hail mary that is necessary, but the team needs to get their sh!t together soon.  GFS looks like shredmaggedon or suppression city for next 10 days.  Not even worried about the cutter it shows beyond that range.  

The December event was a bit more straight-forward and there wasn't an established strong blocking yet at that point. This is par for the course with models trying to handle strong blocking and confluence.   

With regards to the next event, with that deep trough in the west I don't think the storm is going to get stuffed south. The wave coming out is going to be shooting from the trough in the west under the block toward the other trough off the East Coast and how much the heights build in between is going to be important. Look at the rest of the model suite today, we're back to an attempt at cutting and wintry mix in both the Euro and Canadian. Canadian forces a secondary before the primary really gets above our latitude but Euro takes the primary to Cleveland with a secondary. Mid level features (850/700mb) are just a bit too far NW this go around on these models, we have to keep them just under us to get us a primarily frozen event (snow, perhaps some sleet). We continue to alternate these solutions, good thing there's a lot of time yet. 

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8 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

The December event was a bit more straight-forward and there wasn't an established strong blocking yet at that point. This is par for the course with models trying to handle strong blocking and confluence.   

With regards to the next event, with that deep trough in the west I don't think the storm is going to get stuffed south. The wave coming out is going to be shooting from the trough in the west under the block toward the other trough off the East Coast and how much the heights build in between is going to be important. Look at the rest of the model suite today, we're back to an attempt at cutting and wintry mix in both the Euro and Canadian. Canadian forces a secondary before the primary really gets above our latitude but Euro takes the primary to Cleveland with a secondary. Mid level features (850/700mb) are just a bit too far NW this go around on these models, we have to keep them just under us to get us a primarily frozen event (snow, perhaps some sleet). We continue to alternate these solutions, good thing there's a lot of time yet. 

Yeah I know, but if you look at the "blocking" for next week, there's not much when we need it (LSV anyway) and our thermals are marginally ok (as of 12z's).  Not sure i feel confident we are safe down here.  Seeing CMC AND EURO come north scares me as were still 5 days out.  We needed them to hold for another day or so for me to be able to sleep well wrt this event.  

 

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1 hour ago, MAG5035 said:

The December event was a bit more straight-forward and there wasn't an established strong blocking yet at that point. This is par for the course with models trying to handle strong blocking and confluence.   

With regards to the next event, with that deep trough in the west I don't think the storm is going to get stuffed south. The wave coming out is going to be shooting from the trough in the west under the block toward the other trough off the East Coast and how much the heights build in between is going to be important. Look at the rest of the model suite today, we're back to an attempt at cutting and wintry mix in both the Euro and Canadian. Canadian forces a secondary before the primary really gets above our latitude but Euro takes the primary to Cleveland with a secondary. Mid level features (850/700mb) are just a bit too far NW this go around on these models, we have to keep them just under us to get us a primarily frozen event (snow, perhaps some sleet). We continue to alternate these solutions, good thing there's a lot of time yet. 

Thanks Mag. I hope as we get closer will come up with a solution and keep it. 

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You certainly see the NWS confidence level next week with even the Partly Sunny chance of snow for Tuesday. :D

Monday
A chance of rain and snow after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Monday Night
A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Tuesday
A chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

 

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Is there a website that archives NHS forcast each day. Like if I wanted to go back to 1/20/1995 for example, and find the NHS 3 or 5 day forecast on that date.

Is there a site (pay is fine) that provides historical model run data at good resolution so that I could say pull up the forcast tempature, qpf, snow on each model run for the past 6 months at at least 24 hour increments for Harrisburg for the euro or gfs?


.

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2 hours ago, Jns2183 said:

Is there a website that archives NHS forcast each day. Like if I wanted to go back to 1/20/1995 for example, and find the NHS 3 or 5 day forecast on that date.

Is there a site (pay is fine) that provides historical model run data at good resolution so that I could say pull up the forcast tempature, qpf, snow on each model run for the past 6 months at at least 24 hour increments for Harrisburg for the euro or gfs?


.

I’ve hunted for one several times to no avail. 

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