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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021


MAG5035
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So far 12z guidance looks better today for the system, GFS is more of a classic coast to coast out the latitude it came in type system.. which would generally keep it just underneath PA. Canadian actually squashed it under us completely with another shortwave trying to approach at 240. It had much stronger blocking above us (too strong in this instance). Gonna be quite changeable given the range yet and models trying to handle the block. I should clarify that I do think this system is going to be a winter event for us, but whether we can get a mostly snow event is the challenge as this has so far shown a pretty icy look. Whatever comes out is going to get deflected by that block, how much it cuts before it does so is the question. 

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Just now, MAG5035 said:

So far 12z guidance looks better today for the system, GFS is more of a classic coast to coast out the latitude it came in type system.. which would generally keep it just underneath PA. Canadian actually squashed it under us completely with another shortwave trying to approach at 240. It had much stronger blocking above us (too strong in this instance). Gonna be quite changeable given the range yet and models trying to handle the block. I should clarify that I do think this system is going to be a winter event for us, but whether we can get a mostly snow event is the challenge as this has so far shown a pretty icy look. Whatever comes out is going to get deflected by that block, how much it cuts before it does so is the question. 

Thanks Mag!

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6 hours ago, paweather said:

Where is NUT on the MA Forum trolling JI, at least that was entertaining. :D

hehe... it was fun, but what an easy target. 

Nut is quietly lurkin and was thinking the Op runs might belly under the nice NAO and was thinking it didnt make sense.  I'm glad todays runs brought some looks as to what I/we should expect with such blocking, but am not overly confident in much anymore.  One can only see so many good looks "vaporize" to rattle logic and what one thought one understood about weather/physics.....

and the cutter thing....it really is annoying....and concerning at the same time as I fear it may be part of the warming base state and what the models/analogs are struggling to recognize. ie. just because you once saw this....doesnt mean what it once did.  All that said, it still looks like a fun few weeks coming up.  Not looking much further for sanity's sake.

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The 0z Euro provided 2 Winter Storm chances for next week. 
For the early week storm, It wouldn’t take much of a shift to the south with the storm track to give a mostly snow event to our southern tier. As it stands with this run, it would be mostly snow for the northern half of CTP. The southern half of CTP would have a heavy mix changing to snow as the low transfers off of the coast.

The next threat is incoming next Thursday night into Friday at the end of the ten day run. It would have been nice to see the next 6 to 12 hours!

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I'll take it in my zone forecast even though it is 30% LOL.

Wednesday

Scattered snow showers, mainly before 8am. The snow could be heavy at times. Partly sunny, with a high near 34. Northwest wind 8 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

  

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