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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021


MAG5035
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5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

After looking at long range guidance from the overnight runs - I don't see much to be encouraged about. This is a rotten time to go into an extended period of dry weather, but the southern stream looks to be predominately closed for business going forward. 

can only hope to get clipped w/ NS being predominant player, and hopefully we'll be surprised by one of 2.  Like I said the other week, at least areas w/ snow wont lose it.  Would be nice to get some before pattern breaks down.  NOTHING is harder to bear than going through a cold dry period, only to have snow to rain event, as pattern relaxes and warms up.  I hate that.

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2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

can only hope to get clipped w/ NS being predominant player, and hopefully we'll be surprised by one of 2.  Like I said the other week, at least areas w/ snow wont lose it.  Would be nice to get some before pattern breaks down.  NOTHING is harder to bear than going through a cold dry period, only to have snow to rain event, as pattern relaxes and warms up.  I hate that.

Yep, we need a high ratio fluff bomb straight from Manitoba. I'm far more partial to Maulers from Manitoba than clippers from Alberta. :) 

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16 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Yep, we need a high ratio fluff bomb straight from Manitoba. I'm far more partial to Maulers from Manitoba than clippers from Alberta. :) 

the fast flow on most guidance seems to really be the problem, we can get anything to lock in and work in conjunction w/ each other (like normal long wave stable patterns that snow lovers dream of).  That said, its likely a timing thing and something may sneak up in short/med term guidance.  While Im bummed, it still feels like winter, so I'm ok w/ it.  Was in Phillipsburg this past weekend and they had a rather solid/dense snowpack that is going NOWHERE.  Lots of walking through the woods and quite a few times had snow up to my knee.  Just wish we had some down here, but it's all good.

 

My son was up north and said he saw more snowmobile activity than he's ever seen.  I'm happy for the businesses that typically struggle, and hope this helps a bit, as this year, I'm sure they are far below in cash reserves due to the mess of the last year.  I don't envy them.  

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12 hours ago, pasnownut said:

can only hope to get clipped w/ NS being predominant player, and hopefully we'll be surprised by one of 2.  Like I said the other week, at least areas w/ snow wont lose it.  Would be nice to get some before pattern breaks down.  NOTHING is harder to bear than going through a cold dry period, only to have snow to rain event, as pattern relaxes and warms up.  I hate that.

The -NAO continues to look impressive for most of the rest of the month. The EPO is heading negative which will help with delivering the cold air. The -PNA should bring more storm chances across that should be forced to our south because of the blocking.

I just want some moisture laden storms in prime climo from mid January onward. I’ll take our chances with more cold air in the pattern thanks to the -EPO and the -NAO blocking keeping it in place.
This upcoming pattern could finally produce some solid winter storm chances the last 2 weeks of the month.

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I don't see too much in the upcoming shift in the overall pattern that argues we don't start seeing the results of the ongoing strat-warm event and continued -NAO/AO blocking. I've said a few times my eye has been on the back half of Jan, so this is materializing on time IMO. The EPO realm has been about the only sticking point, with persistent low heights in the Gulf of Alaska cutting off the source region for cold. That's set to reverse at the end of the week, with models/ensembles first building a ridge on the west coast eventually evolving to a full blown EPO ridge. Very strong and remarkably persistent ridging anchors over Greenland and that forms the bridge over the top when that -EPO ridge really cranks. So in sort, the table looks set for the arctic to invade the US in the next 1-2 weeks. Longer range seems to retro the EPO ridge further off the west coast, putting the western states in the trough and cold as well (-PNA), which with the strong -NAO/AO to fend off any significant SE ridging could help not completely squash our storm track with some actual arctic cold injected into the pattern. We're going to get the colder pattern, so the big thing will be what kind of storms we can get out of it. I think we'll have our chances. 

One thing to watch is a frontal wave on the arrival of the start of this colder period this coming weekend. Models are starting to show a coastal low popping (and winding up getting up toward New England) and they all have some precip in at least the eastern half of PA with the wave.  

 

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1 hour ago, MAG5035 said:

I don't see too much in the upcoming shift in the overall pattern that argues we don't start seeing the results of the ongoing strat-warm event and continued -NAO/AO blocking. I've said a few times my eye has been on the back half of Jan, so this is materializing on time IMO. The EPO realm has been about the only sticking point, with persistent low heights in the Gulf of Alaska cutting off the source region for cold. That's set to reverse at the end of the week, with models/ensembles first building a ridge on the west coast eventually evolving to a full blown EPO ridge. Very strong and remarkably persistent ridging anchors over Greenland and that forms the bridge over the top when that -EPO ridge really cranks. So in sort, the table looks set for the arctic to invade the US in the next 1-2 weeks. Longer range seems to retro the EPO ridge further off the west coast, putting the western states in the trough and cold as well (-PNA), which with the strong -NAO/AO to fend off any significant SE ridging could help not completely squash our storm track with some actual arctic cold injected into the pattern. We're going to get the colder pattern, so the big thing will be what kind of storms we can get out of it. I think we'll have our chances. 

One thing to watch is a frontal wave on the arrival of the start of this colder period this coming weekend. Models are starting to show a coastal low popping (and winding up getting up toward New England) and they all have some precip in at least the eastern half of PA with the wave.  

 

Yeah, you've been sniffin out the upcoming period and it is great to see a ridge bridge straight from the hinterlands of the north.  Been a while since we've seen that on the maps and it was nice to see yesterday.  -pna isnt scary w/ a stout -nao as progged so bowling balls across the conus is fine w/ me.  A little help w/ WAR is also fine as it feeds the machine to the north, but its a scary ask as it's cooked us oh so many times and seems to rule the weather roost here in the east.  Gonna need that a bit as the STJ is pretty far south IMO.  

It's just really refreshing to not be in a shut out winter, and yeah, seeing chances starting to pop up is pretty cool.  

I also saw the coastal pop for this weekend, and said something in the MA forum about it yesterday.  Looks a tad late for most, but maybe a little in the E/NE regions as it gets cranking.  Pocono ski resorts will approve.  

Yeah Blizz....you better clean out your cache....cause you may be filling it up w/ snow maps in the coming weeks.  IMO its a frequent small/med kinda period, but maybe we can score a notable even as well.  Any snow is welcome to me....so its all good.

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1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

Yeah, you've been sniffin out the upcoming period and it is great to see a ridge bridge straight from the hinterlands of the north.  Been a while since we've seen that on the maps and it was nice to see yesterday.  -pna isnt scary w/ a stout -nao as progged so bowling balls across the conus is fine w/ me.  A little help w/ WAR is also fine as it feeds the machine to the north, but its a scary ask as it's cooked us oh so many times and seems to rule the weather roost here in the east.  Gonna need that a bit as the STJ is pretty far south IMO.  

It's just really refreshing to not be in a shut out winter, and yeah, seeing chances starting to pop up is pretty cool.  

I also saw the coastal pop for this weekend, and said something in the MA forum about it yesterday.  Looks a tad late for most, but maybe a little in the E/NE regions as it gets cranking.  Pocono ski resorts will approve.  

Yeah Blizz....you better clean out your cache....cause you may be filling it up w/ snow maps in the coming weeks.  IMO its a frequent small/med kinda period, but maybe we can score a notable even as well.  Any snow is welcome to me....so its all good.

Maybe this is our January thaw week? I'm ready, I know we need to have patience but this week is just one day after another the same weather. 

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2 minutes ago, paweather said:

Maybe this is our January thaw week? I'm ready, I know we need to have patience but this week is just one day after another the same weather. 

I feel like it's been this way since the start of the new year. 

My daughter works outside a lot and asks me every Sunday what the weather's going to be like for the upcoming week.  The past 2 Sundays I've told her to go outside...what you see and feel now is what you'll see and feel all week. 

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46 minutes ago, paweather said:

Maybe this is our January thaw week? I'm ready, I know we need to have patience but this week is just one day after another the same weather. 

Just remember that a while back, LR guidance suggested this big cutter would reshuffle the deck to a good look, and that seems to be on track.  And yes, if this is the January thaw....I'd be giddy if this is as bad as it gets before we go deep winter.....

Seeing the effects of the SSW coupled w/ the NAO/AO, it is rather exciting to see the players coming back to the field after a long hiatus. 

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9 hours ago, pasnownut said:

Just remember that a while back, LR guidance suggested this big cutter would reshuffle the deck to a good look, and that seems to be on track.  And yes, if this is the January thaw....I'd be giddy if this is as bad as it gets before we go deep winter.....

Seeing the effects of the SSW coupled w/ the NAO/AO, it is rather exciting to see the players coming back to the field after a long hiatus. 

Yes, I cleared out my attachments on here a couple of days ago in anticipation of things get very busy with this upcoming pattern!

The GEFS, CMC ensemble, & EPS are all sending a great signal in the snow department. Most of the snow falls in week 2. 

0BCA843F-5C36-459A-9FBF-40849BE5C9B6.png

7F9C756B-E8D5-48F1-94A8-F5DD80E49642.png

0E4B524F-9E56-4703-B7BD-605625F6F489.png

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27 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Yes, I cleared out my attachments on here a couple of days ago in anticipation of things get very busy with this upcoming pattern!

The GEFS, CMC ensemble, & EPS are all sending a great signal in the snow department. Most of the snow falls in week 2. 

0BCA843F-5C36-459A-9FBF-40849BE5C9B6.png

7F9C756B-E8D5-48F1-94A8-F5DD80E49642.png

0E4B524F-9E56-4703-B7BD-605625F6F489.png

Ops are still just not buying into the Ens runs, but I look forward to them correcting in the coming days.....we'll we hope anyway. 

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Boring pattern this week, mid 20's in the mornings,and mid 30's in the afternoon, and mostly cloudy.

Maybe a chance to pick up a little snow this weekend, temperature dependent. One inch at a time adds up :lol:

I see Minnesota, Green Bay and Detriot is getting hit with snow tomorrow. I would be happy for a boring clipper right now. 

Blizz I see that map is 384 hours what could go wrong? :)

Thanks everyone for the maps and your thoughts!

 

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2 hours ago, pawatch said:

Boring pattern this week, mid 20's in the mornings,and mid 30's in the afternoon, and mostly cloudy.

Maybe a chance to pick up a little snow this weekend, temperature dependent. One inch at a time adds up :lol:

I see Minnesota, Green Bay and Detriot is getting hit with snow tomorrow. I would be happy for a boring clipper right now. 

Blizz I see that map is 384 hours what could go wrong? :)

Thanks everyone for the maps and your thoughts!

 

Yes very boring week of weather.....rinse and repeat basically except for clouds versus sun. I’m trying to stay patience but it’s hard I would take a rain storm right now lol. 

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3 hours ago, pawatch said:

Boring pattern this week, mid 20's in the mornings,and mid 30's in the afternoon, and mostly cloudy.

Maybe a chance to pick up a little snow this weekend, temperature dependent. One inch at a time adds up :lol:

I see Minnesota, Green Bay and Detriot is getting hit with snow tomorrow. I would be happy for a boring clipper right now. 

Blizz I see that map is 384 hours what could go wrong? :)

Thanks everyone for the maps and your thoughts!

 

It feels like it's been years since we had a clipper. 

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9 minutes ago, paweather said:

Well, my rainstorm made it on the GFS for next Friday at the very least. Even though it will change 100 times before then. 

 

9 minutes ago, paweather said:

Well, my rainstorm made it on the GFS for next Friday at the very least. Even though it will change 100 times before then. 

actually it can only change 32-34 (start time dependent)....

:poster_stupid:

 

just having fun....

Para says buckle up....its gonna be a fun ride in search of the promise land.  Vorts every couple days. 

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37 minutes ago, paweather said:

I just really want something to track! I tried tracking clouds last week. 

lol....howd that work for ya...?

I've been filling my time w/ keeping active during these boring times....and as of today trolling the hell outta Ji in the MA thread.  :P

For a dude that really knows his sh!t, he really needs to learn to keep it wound up tighter...

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1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

lol....howd that work for ya...?

I've been filling my time w/ keeping active during these boring times....and as of today trolling the hell outta Ji in the MA thread.  :P

For a dude that really knows his sh!t, he really needs to learn to keep it wound up tighter...

I saw this! :D

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