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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021


MAG5035
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Transition finally underway here, but not before recording 0.25" of pure rain.  It's now sleeting with a coating on the ground and snowflakes are beginning to mix in and increase.  Nearly every model has me receiving 2" with outside chance of 3" on a few of them.  Should be a fun afternoon of observing.  Good luck to all.  Oh, forgot to mention it's 32.9 degrees here now.

Edit--flakes are quickly increasing in quantity and size.  Wet snow bombs!

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4 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

@Itstrainingtime  

@pasnownut

What are your thoughts on the upcoming storm chances later this week & next week?

I think we have a decent shot at Fri/Sat system as most guidance has it below us, honestly 500 panels at 12z look much cleaner on grampy GFS where Para is 2 pieces that don't really phase.  I still think we have a shot at something measurable, and as we all know mid month seems to be shaping up for more chances...we should have more in the pipeline.  Only concern is that we still seem to have LR guidance on ops showing the cutter risk, and I'm not really sure why as ens guidance has a rather decent look for systems to continue come at/under us.  Just an observation and trying to wrap my head around why.  In summary yeah we should have some stuff to chat about and that's loads better than most thought only a few weeks back.  I think this upcoming period of fun is brought to you by the all to elusive acronyms SSW and -NAO. 

Enjoy your snow today.  Just rain here, but we might get a little if rates help the column like some are seeing.  Not expecting it, but we are close enough here in the LSV to hope for a bit of fun.

Ground was white this am and hope it will be later today.  Thats my win bar. 

Chat more this week as I've enjoyed my christmas break "away from the world".  Happy New Year to all.

Nut

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12 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Slotted out here at 1.1", def a really wet snowfall. I'll bet some of that 3-5" the models were cranking out ends up coming to fruition somewhere in between UNV and IPT.

CTP mentioned that possibility in their morning discussion.  But I’m really doubtful that’s going to happen at this point.

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Well, so much for the 2 to 3 inches of snow.  Those wet snow bombs (which did look amazing) only lasted for maybe 15 minutes tops.  It was enough to accumulate about 0.1" with a tiny white coating.  Then, it stopped.  Then, the rain came back and deposited about another 0.07" of pure liquid.  On to the next one.

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1 minute ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Well, so much for the 2 to 3 inches of snow.  Those wet snow bombs (which did look amazing) only lasted for maybe 15 minutes tops.  It was enough to accumulate about 0.1" with a tiny white coating.  Then, it stopped.  Then, the rain came back and deposited about another 0.07" of pure liquid.  On to the next one.

What is your seasonal total for snowfall to date?

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1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

What is your seasonal total for snowfall to date?

A couple of days ago I woke up to about 0.2" of snow that unexpectedly fell over night.  Funny thing is I don't remember which day that was precisely.  It was close to the end of the year, but before the 31st.  Any idea what day that might have been?  Adding in that 0.2" plus the 0.1" from today, that brings my seasonal total to 11.0".  (You can see it down at the bottom of my signature.)  I was intending to update that prior tiny coating but forgot to, and now I don't remember the day.

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1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

18z GFS illustrates my fear from this morning perfectly. Northern stream energy pushes our system out to sea way south of us. Not saying that will happen, but the idea is gaining momentum...

If the storm on Friday or Saturday doesn’t work out for CTP, then the next chance should not be too far away. 
The 12z Euro & 18z GFS both have a another Winter storm chance for us early next week.

 

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44 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

A couple of days ago I woke up to about 0.2" of snow that unexpectedly fell over night.  Funny thing is I don't remember which day that was precisely.  It was close to the end of the year, but before the 31st.  Any idea what day that might have been?  Adding in that 0.2" plus the 0.1" from today, that brings my seasonal total to 11.0".  (You can see it down at the bottom of my signature.)  I was intending to update that prior tiny coating but forgot to, and now I don't remember the day.

I posted my question on my phone and couldn't see your signature. Thank you for responding. I'm sitting at 10.8" so those 2 small events you've had recently has put you on top. :)

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1 hour ago, CarlislePaWx said:

A couple of days ago I woke up to about 0.2" of snow that unexpectedly fell over night.  Funny thing is I don't remember which day that was precisely.  It was close to the end of the year, but before the 31st.  Any idea what day that might have been?  Adding in that 0.2" plus the 0.1" from today, that brings my seasonal total to 11.0".  (You can see it down at the bottom of my signature.)  I was intending to update that prior tiny coating but forgot to, and now I don't remember the day.

 

13 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I posted my question on my phone and couldn't see your signature. Thank you for responding. I'm sitting at 10.8" so those 2 small events you've had recently has put you on top. :)

I'm only FOUR inches ahead of you guys up here in the Syracuse area. This winter has been atrocious here.

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2 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

If the storm on Friday or Saturday doesn’t work out for CTP, then the next chance should not be too far away. 
The 12z Euro & 18z GFS both have a another Winter storm chance for us early next week.

 

 

I wouldnt write friday off yet.  Pattern is just getting established, and I cant envision how we go from cutters, straight to suppression.  That would be more of a concern in the following waves as the NAO starts to show its teeth.  Just my hunch.

fixed.  I can't envision

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47 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I posted my question on my phone and couldn't see your signature. Thank you for responding. I'm sitting at 10.8" so those 2 small events you've had recently has put you on top. :)

Harrisburg is currently at 11.7 for the season as of today. This is currently over 5 inches above average for the season through today’s date.

It is great to be well above normal snow with a pattern loaded with potential about to begin.

 

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8 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I wouldnt write friday off yet.  Pattern is just getting established, and I can envision how we go from cutters, straight to suppression.  That would be more of a concern in the following waves as the NAO starts to show its teeth.  Just my hunch.

Very true, it wouldn’t take much to get southern PA in the game for this Friday. Some model runs as recent as yesterday had us getting decent snow.

The good blocking is just getting established and sometimes that gives the models fits to figure out how to handle events.

I am looking forward to soon watching it snow while tracking the next threat!

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