Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Central PA - Winter 2020/2021


MAG5035
 Share

Recommended Posts

This lead up to the Christmas holiday is definitely looking like it's going to deliver a hard lesson about most of this region when it comes to December snow. Something to the tune of the only guaranteed White Christmas is one where it's snowing on X-mas Day haha. I'm not sure that the portions of north-central PA that got the tremendous totals are going to see a complete pack loss but it's going to get a pretty big dent in it from the Christmas Eve system while the rest of us probably lose the majority of it. Just was hoping to avoid that long drawn out event with the strong cold front but we're going to get a pretty good dumping. Still a bit uncertain about any changeover, that seems the favor from the Laurels west in PA currently and it might be even further west than that with the possible snow swath. Models drawing that secondary low pressure wave that rides up the front through the middle of PA is a pretty good recipe for a slot and shutoff of most precip by the time the cold air's all the way in. 

At least this storm system will be a one day affair and send some pretty decent cold in for Christmas Day. Then heading towards New Year's we have a good pattern setting up with the nice -NAO block and overall high heights near the pole. So good chance we'll have one or two shots at an event between Christmas and New Years. Here's the possible problem I see, and we got a dose of this problem the last couple days. I'm kinda worried about the amount of cold air we might have in this said favorable pattern. A look at temp departures of our source region in Canada on the models shows a fair amount of above normal temps and not really any bouts of big time cold building with respect to average. Obviously, above normal in Canada is still "cold", but that air mass modifies as it gets to our neck of the woods. I'm hoping we don't waste a couple serviceable storms on account of not having good surface temps to work with (see the last day or so).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

53 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

This lead up to the Christmas holiday is definitely looking like it's going to deliver a hard lesson about most of this region when it comes to December snow. Something to the tune of the only guaranteed White Christmas is one where it's snowing on X-mas Day haha. I'm not sure that the portions of north-central PA that got the tremendous totals are going to see a complete pack loss but it's going to get a pretty big dent in it from the Christmas Eve system while the rest of us probably lose the majority of it. Just was hoping to avoid that long drawn out event with the strong cold front but we're going to get a pretty good dumping. Still a bit uncertain about any changeover, that seems the favor from the Laurels west in PA currently and it might be even further west than that with the possible snow swath. Models drawing that secondary low pressure wave that rides up the front through the middle of PA is a pretty good recipe for a slot and shutoff of most precip by the time the cold air's all the way in. 

At least this storm system will be a one day affair and send some pretty decent cold in for Christmas Day. Then heading towards New Year's we have a good pattern setting up with the nice -NAO block and overall high heights near the pole. So good chance we'll have one or two shots at an event between Christmas and New Years. Here's the possible problem I see, and we got a dose of this problem the last couple days. I'm kinda worried about the amount of cold air we might have in this said favorable pattern. A look at temp departures of our source region in Canada on the models shows a fair amount of above normal temps and not really any bouts of big time cold building with respect to average. Obviously, above normal in Canada is still "cold", but that air mass modifies as it gets to our neck of the woods. I'm hoping we don't waste a couple serviceable storms on account of not having good surface temps to work with (see the last day or so).

Patience is the key... just like in early December when it looked like we would have chances, it just took a little time.

It will be tough to not score a decent winter Event or two by the first week of January with the blocking pattern setting up.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12k NAM puts everyone State College on eastward into wind gusts in the mid 60s.
That’s with 1.5-2” rain  
Who needs power Christmas Day?
 
 
That means you'll be mid 70's no problem. Is tomorrow too soon to start inquiring about your new roof.

Sent from my LM-X210APM using Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As far as our first system (Dec 28/29) after the Christmas day storm I think that is pretty much DOA for the majority of the mid-Atlantic outside of those possibly around the lakes and the extreme NE. The Christmas day storm would have been the setup for system #1 and we aren't seeing what we needed to see. A few days ago the models were portraying low pressures around the 50/50 region. We are no longer seeing that as we now have them located up around the Hudson Bay region. This difference is allowing height builds up and off the east coast in front of system #1 and also creating a weakness over top through the Lakes as well. This pretty much argues that this system will ride up into the Lakes. Now this first system was somewhat of a reach to see snow of any consequence into the 95 corridor/coastal plain in the mid-Atlantic up into the NE as portrayed on the models a few days ago. What was of more significance was that it laid the groundwork for system #2 around the New Year. But like dominoes falling, system #2 is now in serious trouble as well because of the difference in evolution of the Christmas day storm.

808959132_GEFSDec23surfacepressures.thumb.gif.a75b170759f958956841b1ff23888ff0.gif

 

This is the look we are now generally seeing on all three major Global ensembles (Euro, GFS, CMC) leading into system #2. All three globals show our Dec 28th system migrating into the general 50/50 region underneath blocking in the NAO region. This is pretty much what we want to see. But if you look in between that 50/50 and our New Year's day storm note that we are seeing strong height builds/ridging running up in the east from the deep south into Canada. Now typically I want to see height builds between a 50/50 and an incoming low. But I want to see them at the last second as the approaching low closes the distance to the 50/50. But we are not seeing this here as the height builds are occurring far too early because of the large separation between these two lows. And the reason for this large separation is two fold. The different evolution of the two previous systems has changed the timing and the South west energy is a little slower to eject. This really is not a good look as it wrecks temps (warming) and effects storm track (adjusting it north and west). Now I have not given up completely on system #2 for the 95/coastal plain as of yet, but it is looking rough as currently portrayed on the models. We need to some how delay/tamp down those east coast height builds whether through timing or other means.

1353463448_GEFSDec23500s.thumb.gif.ba6485ea8dde9266855d45e2814cff6c.gif

Some may ask why we are having such difficulties despite good blocking showing up in the N-Atlantic. That pretty much has to do with where that blocking is showing up. Typically (there are exceptions) for the coastal plains/95 portions of the east we want a western based -NAO that extends over top into Canada. But what we have been generally seeing has been an central and eastern based -NAO. There is hope though as there are signs we are actually moving more towards a western based NAO in the extended. Guess we shall see.

  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Once the blocking gets established and migrates to a slightly more west based -NAO position, we should be back in the snow business.

If the system towards New Year’s Eve can come out in pieces, it would allow it to be more progressive to perhaps slide under us. 

The blocking looks to be sustained in the long range and the AO & NAO are forecasted to remain negative over at least the next 2 weeks. If we remain patient, we should receive the snow goods eventually in this pattern.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Once the blocking gets established and migrates to a slightly more west based -NAO position, we should be back in the snow business.

If the system towards New Year’s Eve can come out in pieces, it would allow it to be more progressive to perhaps slide under us. 

The blocking looks to be sustained in the long range and the AO & NAO are forecasted to remain negative over at least the next 2 weeks. If we remain patient, we should receive the snow goods eventually in this pattern.

I am still excited about what we are seeing despite what we may have with the next few systems. It looks as if the N-Atlantic is going to cooperate (blocking) for the most part for the foreseeable future. This portends well for seeing blocking a good portion of the winter. As long as we see that blocking, no matter where it is located, we will have our chances. As we are just entering prime climo this should hopefully afford us ample opportunities this winter. I really think this is a case of delayed but nor denied.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

34 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

I am still excited about what we are seeing despite what we may have with the next few systems. It looks as if the N-Atlantic is going to cooperate (blocking) for the most part for the foreseeable future. This portends well for seeing blocking a good portion of the winter. As long as we see that blocking, no matter where it is located, we will have our chances. As we are just entering prime climo this should hopefully afford us ample opportunities this winter. I really think this is a case of delayed but nor denied.

Yeah I think the models are just starting to adjust to the blocking. Likely blowing the dust/rust off those parts as its been a while.  hehe

w/ nina fading and blocking looking to have some legs, at the minimum it should give some windows of opportunity, and is a welcome sight.  So tired of the constant cutting that we've see for far too long.  Looking forward to see vorts passing south of us, and seeing what happens from there.  I'd be fine w/ some overrunning as well..so long as we are on the cold side of the boundary.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

52 minutes ago, kerplunk said:

Me either...HATE rain in the winter. Just figured someone on here might enjoy it for some perverted reason. :raining::D

That would be me...lol

But...only when I'm back at work. This storm, almost every one of the models wants to give me about 3 inches of rain. That plus saturated ground from the melting snow pack plus any kind of high wind gusts (50mph+) gusts might spell a dark night tomorrow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, Voyager said:

That would be me...lol

But...only when I'm back at work. This storm, almost every one of the models wants to give me about 3 inches of rain. That plus saturated ground from the melting snow pack plus any kind of high wind gusts (50mph+) gusts might spell a dark night tomorrow.

Haha...well, if we’re going to get a rainstorm, I say at least bring it—hard rain and high winds—although not wishing power outages for anyone. Especially for Christmas. Then again, might make it memorable. :shiver:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, kerplunk said:

Me either...HATE rain in the winter. Just figured someone on here might enjoy it for some perverted reason. :raining::D

 

54 minutes ago, Voyager said:

That would be me...lol

But...only when I'm back at work. This storm, almost every one of the models wants to give me about 3 inches of rain. That plus saturated ground from the melting snow pack plus any kind of high wind gusts (50mph+) gusts might spell a dark night tomorrow.

Well...

On nice days after winter storms, car washes tend to be packed. Packed to the point of me going home without the car wash taking place. Now...throw in a nice, 2", wind-driven rainstorm, and I'm giddy about saving the $ AND not having to leave my little oasis here in 62 degree comfort. :) 

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, kerplunk said:

Haha...well, if we’re going to get a rainstorm, I say at least bring it—hard rain and high winds—although not wishing power outages for anyone. Especially for Christmas. Then again, might make it memorable. :shiver:

My buddies that are in power/internet service sector that are on call tomorrow do not agree, as its unlikely you have heavy rain, wind and no power/service issues.  I don't envy them one bit, and I"m sure they'd like to stay home w/ their families.  I hope its a dud.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

49 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

My buddies that are in power/internet service sector that are on call tomorrow do not agree, as its unlikely you have heavy rain, wind and no power/service issues.  I don't envy them one bit, and I"m sure they'd like to stay home w/ their families.  I hope its a dud.  

Good point. Wild weather is best left to non-holiday times. The end of my post was in jest.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

37 minutes ago, kerplunk said:

Good point. Wild weather is best left to non-holiday times. The end of my post was in jest.

I know.  I guess i just think of the damage/challenges and that takes away from the weather "fun" part for me (plus it could be my house that eats a tree).  That would suck any day, but especially at this time of year.  I'm all for quietly turning the friggin calendar and flippin 2020 the big bird.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Off topic, but need to vent...

Twenty years of Class A tractor trailer driving experience means nothing these days. Since I've been driving a motorcoach for the past 2 years and have been out of work due to Covid and my shoulder injury, I no longer have the required "recent" experience that the insurance companies require. It's starting to look like I'm fooked for tractor trailer work now. This sucks...

:angry: :(

  • Sad 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

32 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Off topic, but need to vent...

Twenty years of Class A tractor trailer driving experience means nothing these days. Since I've been driving a motorcoach for the past 2 years and have been out of work due to Covid and my shoulder injury, I no longer have the required "recent" experience that the insurance companies require. It's starting to look like I'm fooked for tractor trailer work now. This sucks...

:angry: :(

That really does suck. Sorry to hear about it. Hopefully you can find an insurance company that looks at individual situations instead of going by blanket company policies. Know that may be a long shot, but wishing you the best.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...