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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021


MAG5035
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We soon will be tracking a specific winter storm threat for next week. 
This week kind of reminds me of the first week of December when we knew the pattern looked to have potential. We knew there were chances upcoming, but we could not yet pinpoint which storm would deliver the goods, which arrived in a big way last Wednesday.

There appears to be chances on the horizon next week in the early, middle & latter part of New Year’s weekend. Which one will be the one, or will we have multiple chances to cash in?

The -AO & -NAO support our chances along with an active pipeline of storms. Models usually struggle with a developing blocking pattern, so it will probably take a few days to hone in on the specific threats. 

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7 hours ago, anotherman said:

Never went below freezing last night, and that had an impact.

Same, it leveled up at about 34ºF most of the night last night and it hasn't been below since. Def shrinking the pack some here (which has no sleet in it). The active northern branch on the heels of the big storm has kept temps moderate at night with the exception of the one clear night Saturday Morning.  

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Wow!  I just took a look at my grid forecast.  They added another 1 to 2 inches of rain.  Mine says 1 to 2 inches during the day Thursday followed by another 1 to 2 inches Thursday night before any possible change to snow.  That's insane.  I guess I'll enjoy my snowpack for 48 more hours before the Grinch steals all my snow.:weep:

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1 hour ago, kerplunk said:

Am assuming this gradual melt ahead of Thursday’s deluge is good news in terms of flooding.

That’s the only positive I can think of in terms of what’s about to happen Christmas Day.  Will be hard to get excited about any potential future storms until that’s in the past.

Agreed.  I've accepted the fate of my back yard being brown/green for christmas, and just look at it as though we are clearing the slate for hopefully a decent/sustained run. 

Just turnin the - into a +.....well I'm trying anyway.

At this juncture, I'm nervous about those north of 80 holding onto much after the xmas eve deluge (btw, 6z nam really took away the anafrontal snows).  Never placed any faith in that happening anyway.  Couple mood flakes would be nice though.

 

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6 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Wow!  I just took a look at my grid forecast.  They added another 1 to 2 inches of rain.  Mine says 1 to 2 inches during the day Thursday followed by another 1 to 2 inches Thursday night before any possible change to snow.  That's insane.  I guess I'll enjoy my snowpack for 48 more hours before the Grinch steals all my snow.:weep:

Yeah I saw that too, but most models suggesting 1-2", so hopefully that wont verify.  Ground is frozen in many areas.  NAM is wettest of the bunch, and hopefully it just its bias showing.  Other major leaguer's show less.

namconus_apcpn_neus_28.png

gfsp_apcpn_neus_16.png

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10 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Agreed.  I've accepted the fate of my back yard being brown/green for christmas, and just look at it as though we are clearing the slate for hopefully a decent/sustained run. 

Just turnin the - into a +.....well I'm trying anyway.

At this juncture, I'm nervous about those north of 80 holding onto much after the xmas eve deluge (btw, 6z nam really took away the anafrontal snows).  Never placed any faith in that happening anyway.  Couple mood flakes would be nice though.

 

Amen on the mood flakes!

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I've been fretting for the past several days the thought of losing my snowpack in a matter of a few hours on Christmas eve with the rain and warmth - no matter, I lost a LOT of my pack overnight. Holy crap! I'd estimate at least 50% of what I had when I went to bed melted, so there likely won't be much by Thursday's rains.

I'm telling myself it's better to have lost/lose it now than the day before Christmas. :)  

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4 minutes ago, paweather said:

This artic front has been modeled for days since last week, this means busy going to bring Christmas in with a bang both a lot of rain and maybe some snow on the backside. 

Lots of uncertainty with this system concerning rain to snow. Still hoping for decent back end snow here. One thing for sure is it’s going to get COLD.

 

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5 minutes ago, daxx said:

Christmas eve is looking downright ugly.  From winter storm warnings last week to possible flood watches and flood warnings this week.  Oh well a lot of Winter to go.  It just sucks there has to be a huge rainstorm for Christmas eve. It looks like Maytown will be sitting by the ac vent Christmas eve.

Time to head for the Tug! Hoping to get buried up there in several weeks. 

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6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I've been fretting for the past several days the thought of losing my snowpack in a matter of a few hours on Christmas eve with the rain and warmth - no matter, I lost a LOT of my pack overnight. Holy crap! I'd estimate at least 50% of what I had when I went to bed melted, so there likely won't be much by Thursday's rains.

I'm telling myself it's better to have lost/lose it now than the day before Christmas. :)

I lost a lot the last two nights, neither of which were below freezing.   It'll be gone before Thursday at this rate.

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7 minutes ago, anotherman said:

I lost a lot the last two nights, neither of which were below freezing.   It'll be gone before Thursday at this rate.

from a flooding perspective its a tough one.  enough remaining snowpack holds some of the qpf.  The way it looks we'll have bare ground w/ 1" thawed, which wont hold much at all.  Thats why i wanted to keep it...+ it'd become concrete.

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Just now, paweather said:

Let's hope next week brings a snow bang to 2020. 

I'm sure many (myself included), would love nothing more that to turn a cannon onto 2020 no matter what happens next week.  

I CANT WAIT to turn the calendar..but yeah some snow to end it on a better note would be great.  

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5 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I'm sure many (myself included), would love nothing more that to turn a cannon onto 2020 no matter what happens next week.  

I CANT WAIT to turn the calendar..but yeah some snow to end it on a better note would be great.  

Yep your exactly right about that! No matter what happens bring on 2021!

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