Superstorm Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 near perfect conditions for snow, ground froze a my location, 22 degrees, very low sun angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 11 minutes ago, Superstorm said: . seeing him bullish for 12-18 in my area, gives me hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 8 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: near perfect conditions for snow, ground froze a my location, 22 degrees, very low sun angle. Great point. There's no "bad" time for a snowstorm, but mid to late December is perfect for several reasons, including staying power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Smells like snow. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, AllWeather said: Smells like snow. Soo....whatdya think about Horsts call? The warm nose is there, but its not a strong one IMO, and as i parse over meso's we only lose 850's and below for a 2-4 hr window. You see any surprises? I think we go to sleet at best, but little if any zr (and most models show this). I guess I'm hoping for dynamic cooling during max qpf to help us (if there are any surprises to be had for LSV). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 I can't pull radar up on my work computer for some reason. Anyone been taking at looksy at that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 First flurries already 24/16 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Feels like the morning before prom night. LET’S GOOOOOOO!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, canderson said: Feels like the morning before prom night. LET’S GOOOOOOO!!! I mean... you're literally throwing me beach balls at this point. I'm not even going to dignify this one with a joke. We can all agree that the joke will simply write itself. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, canderson said: Feels like the morning before prom night. LET’S GOOOOOOO!!! My Parole officer wouldn't let me go to the Prom 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, Atomixwx said: I mean... you're literally throwing me beach balls at this point. I'm not even going to dignify this one with a joke. We can all agree that the joke will simply write itself. We are all getting lots of white stuff, what do you want me to do? Jim Cantore will be in Allentown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, canderson said: We are all getting lots of white stuff, what do you want me to do? Use a sock. Please. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTrout Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 38 minutes ago, pasnownut said: seeing him bullish for 12-18 in my area, gives me hope. Same, he has me in the 12-18. I wouldn’t bet against the guy, makes me feel better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 26/15 IMBY. Got that humid cold feel that accompanies snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Soo....whatdya think about Horsts call? The warm nose is there, but its not a strong one IMO, and as i parse over meso's we only lose 850's and below for a 2-4 hr window. You see any surprises? I think we go to sleet at best, but little if any zr (and most models show this). I guess I'm hoping for dynamic cooling during max qpf to help us (if there are any surprises to be had for LSV). That will be the key. Get into heavier rates and we will promptly flip back to snow, IMO.If we get too close or in dry slot, sleet will linger longer.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 NAM looks more like EURO imo. Anyone got maps? On the road up your way right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, Superstorm said: That will be the key. Get into heavier rates and we will promptly flip back to snow, IMO. If we get too close or in dry slot, sleet will linger longer. . agreed 100%. If you and I lose rates....were toast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 NAM looks more like EURO imo. Anyone got maps? On the road up your way right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 20 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Soo....whatdya think about Horsts call? The warm nose is there, but its not a strong one IMO, and as i parse over meso's we only lose 850's and below for a 2-4 hr window. You see any surprises? I think we go to sleet at best, but little if any zr (and most models show this). I guess I'm hoping for dynamic cooling during max qpf to help us (if there are any surprises to be had for LSV). He’s one of the best there is, especially for this region. My thoughts are similar to his. The warm nose will no doubt climb into SE counties...how far it goes north is the million dollar question. I’m in Manheim, but I still think I’ll flip to sleet at some point, but could also be timed with any potential dry slot. The warm nose is actually above 850, so 850/925 T maps look good, but the sleet period will be due to what’s happening between 800-700mb. Regardless, the thump is going to be thumpin’ and if the back end deform zone can get going like the RGEM shows, then even far SE zones will finish off with some fun. Either way, it’s the best shot at wintry weather we’ve had in several years, and given how much this year has sucked, I plan to soak it alllllll in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mshaffer526 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 NAM 3km run is an unadulterated disaster for anyone S + E of I-81/78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, Superstorm said: . At that point the deformation ccb band still rocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 NAM 3km run is an unadulterated disaster for anyone S + E of I-81/78.I actually think it has slightly improved.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 GOOD LUCK Everyone, It is finally here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Cantore is apparently in PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 9 minutes ago, Mshaffer526 said: NAM 3km run is an unadulterated disaster for anyone S + E of I-81/78. Compared to last 2 runs of it....not sure I see what you see. Seems reasonable and deform looks to be showing some muscle to help on the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Compared to last 2 runs of it....not sure I see what you see. Seems reasonable and deform looks to be showing some muscle to help on the backside. Agreed, Looked at the 12K as well and it is fine. Some mixing down at the MD line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 just wondering if there will be roads drifted shut in rural areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just posting for fun....its basically go time, but for us fringers a subtle shift here n there is a welcome thing. The rest of ya's are locked/loaded and staring down the barrel of a snow cannon. Enjoy every flake (pellet) you can. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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