Itstrainingtime Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, canderson said: That GFS looks awfuuuullllly close the 12z Euro track (and low placements), no? Yes...honing in hopefully on a consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 One thing for sure per GFS this is just going to put down insane rates as NWS pointed out in their WSW. 1-2" per hour to 2-4" per hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: Not by a lot, but the GFS is east. For those riding the fence, not by a lot can mean a whole lot. And, like the NAM, the trend has stopped at 18z. I’m petty close to weenie suicide. I know exactly where this is heading for us in western pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, KPITSnow said: I’m petty close to weenie suicide. I know exactly where this is heading for us in western pa I can't see it making that big of an adjustment either way at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, KPITSnow said: I’m petty close to weenie suicide. I know exactly where this is heading for us in western pa Hang in there. Still likely a good 6" plus out your way. Lots of moisture for sure. It is amazing how quickly this develops from hour 6 to 18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: I’m petty close to weenie suicide. I know exactly where this is heading for us in western pa Can't see any model making that big of a jump to the point where KPIT sees nothing. There's been a ton of sampled data so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTrout Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 How many of your spouses/significant others are mad at you at this point already? I think after 10 years my wife maybe understands 10% of my weather obsession. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, nesussxwx said: Can't see any model making that big a jump to a point where KPIT sees nothing. There's been a ton of sampled data so far. Not nothing....but I can definitely see it moving to the point we end up with a 2-4 event which would be brutal after seeing the euro spit out a foot plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 9 minutes ago, paweather said: No signs of mixing. What's with that area of lighter accumulations (8-10 inches) in the Lehigh Valley? Subsidence between banding features? If so, that's a bit to close for comfort for me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, JTrout said: How many of your spouses/significant others are mad at you at this point already? I think after 10 years my wife maybe understands 10% of my weather obsession. Mine's mad at me all the time. I don't need a snowstorm to pizz her off...lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Voyager said: What's with that area of lighter accumulations (8-10 inches) in the Lehigh Valley? Subsidence between banding features? If so, that's a bit to close for comfort for me... I wouldn't worry too much about the snowmaps, maybe just generalize it. You should be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, JTrout said: How many of your spouses/significant others are mad at you at this point already? I think after 10 years my wife maybe understands 10% of my weather obsession. I have been in our bed up until after 1am on my laptop since last week and all is good. I am a lucky guy! My wife also got use to it although last year she was spoiled there was nothing to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, JTrout said: How many of your spouses/significant others are mad at you at this point already? I think after 10 years my wife maybe understands 10% of my weather obsession. 1 minute ago, Voyager said: Mine's mad at me all the time. I don't need a snowstorm to pizz her off...lol After many, many years...she just knows the drill by now. What bothers her more is what happens AFTER the storm. I usually spend about a day in depression after many days of hunting. She doesn't understand the emotional toll of following something for a week and then letting it go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 14 minutes ago, JTrout said: How many of your spouses/significant others are mad at you at this point already? I think after 10 years my wife maybe understands 10% of my weather obsession. She makes a beeping sound when she walks by and I have a map up. Otherwise it keeps me out of her hair so she’s happy as can be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 16 minutes ago, JTrout said: How many of your spouses/significant others are mad at you at this point already? I think after 10 years my wife maybe understands 10% of my weather obsession. @canderson's wife is usually too busy in the little section beneath my computer desk to really notice. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTrout Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Last night my 4 yr old daughter woke me up twice, once to pee and once with a nose bleed. I blamed her for being tired this morning. Wife didn't think that was funny. Staying up for the Euro or waking up at 3am to check the 12z runs may have had something to do with it the last 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTrout Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Atomixwx said: @canderson's wife is usually too busy in the little section beneath my computer desk to really notice. You win the wife response contest. hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 to all my weather friends on this forum. You are the first to know Just received this from PEMA Good Afternoon . Thank you con contacting the Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. The Governor will be issuing a State of Emergency Declaration for this snow storm (December 16-17). You will have to check with Lehigh County directly to see if they are going to issue a County Disaster Declaration. Regards. Tim Timothy L. Roth | Emergency Management Supervisor Private Sector Liaison External Affairs Office Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency 1310 Elmerton Avenue | Harrisburg PA 17110-9713 www.PEMA.pa.gov | www.Ready.PA.gov Stay Calm, Stay Alert, Stay Safe Like us on facebook.com/PEMAHQ Follow us on Twitter @PEMAHQ and @PEMADirector Learn how to Be Informed, Be Prepared, and Be Involved at www.Ready.PA.gov Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, Albedoman said: to all my weather friends on this forum. You are the first to know Just received this from PEMA Good Afternoon . Thank you con contacting the Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. The Governor will be issuing a State of Emergency Declaration for this snow storm (December 16-17). You will have to check with Lehigh County directly to see if they are going to issue a County Disaster Declaration. Regards. Tim Timothy L. Roth | Emergency Management Supervisor Private Sector Liaison External Affairs Office Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency 1310 Elmerton Avenue | Harrisburg PA 17110-9713 www.PEMA.pa.gov | www.Ready.PA.gov Stay Calm, Stay Alert, Stay Safe Like us on facebook.com/PEMAHQ Follow us on Twitter @PEMAHQ and @PEMADirector Learn how to Be Informed, Be Prepared, and Be Involved at www.Ready.PA.gov Who listens to the governor? 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 10 minutes ago, Albedoman said: to all my weather friends on this forum. You are the first to know Just received this from PEMA Good Afternoon . Thank you con contacting the Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. The Governor will be issuing a State of Emergency Declaration for this snow storm (December 16-17). You will have to check with Lehigh County directly to see if they are going to issue a County Disaster Declaration. Regards. Tim Timothy L. Roth | Emergency Management Supervisor Private Sector Liaison External Affairs Office Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency 1310 Elmerton Avenue | Harrisburg PA 17110-9713 www.PEMA.pa.gov | www.Ready.PA.gov Stay Calm, Stay Alert, Stay Safe Like us on facebook.com/PEMAHQ Follow us on Twitter @PEMAHQ and @PEMADirector Learn how to Be Informed, Be Prepared, and Be Involved at www.Ready.PA.gov HOW DARE HE PREVENT MY FREEDOM Did I do that right? PennDOT is going to announce speed restrictions and all tomorrow am too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 19 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: @canderson's wife is usually too busy in the little section beneath my computer desk to really notice. I got no comeback to this LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 44 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I can't see it making that big of an adjustment either way at this point? I agree. Getting close enough that goalposts are narrowing. I think kpit is in the game. No ledges needed. We all win at different levels. I surely feel his fears tho just from the other side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 9 minutes ago, canderson said: HOW DARE HE PREVENT MY FREEDOM Did I do that right? PennDOT is going to announce speed restrictions and all tomorrow am too. But muh freedum!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 48 minutes ago, JTrout said: How many of your spouses/significant others are mad at you at this point already? I think after 10 years my wife maybe understands 10% of my weather obsession. She gave up on me.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 18z GFS 10 to 1 and Kuchera Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mshaffer526 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Enjoy the storm all. I am from Altoona and went to college at Juniata in Huntingdon. Living in Eastern Lancaster County now (Gap) and will be happy with anything over half a foot. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 CTP has thundersnow in the forecast for Harrisburg! Wednesday Snow, mainly after 11am. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 31. East wind 7 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Wednesday Night Snow before 1am, then snow and sleet. The snow and sleet could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 26. North wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 14 minutes ago, Mshaffer526 said: Enjoy the storm all. I am from Altoona and went to college at Juniata in Huntingdon. Living in Eastern Lancaster County now (Gap) and will be happy with anything over half a foot. I enjoyed reading your posts on the other weather forum. You are always welcome and I encourage you to post here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I'll take some thundersnow... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 I honestly don't see much change from 12z to 18z or really anything major from model to model at 18z in terms of the surface track when comparing stuff. I'm not going to chase every random kink or secondary max in the isobars. Everyone's going to get a significant snowstorm. Where the best 700mb forcing resides is going to be where the top end snow totals are going to be found and the amount of warm advection aloft is going to determine what kind of mixing issues occur in the LSV, specifically below the turnpike. Model's aren't quite honed in on either yet, especially the mixing. The 18z GFS basically tracked the surface low pretty much the same the 12z as did the 12 vs 18z NAM. Now NAM has looked a bit southeast of the GFS but the NAM sends a lot of sleet (3k had 1-2"+ worth) into the LSV and the GFS basically has the surface low running a straight rain/snow line. The culprit for all of this is not at 850mb but at the 700mb level. There's a huge difference between the NAM and GFS on temps at that level. NAM GFS There was a compromise to be in had in the form of the earlier 12z Euro which is tracking similar to the GFS on the surface. That was borderline at 700mb but generally stayed below freezing at that level and at 850mb where it showed mix.. like indicating a briefer intrusion of the warm nose somewhere in between those levels (probably a more reasonable assumption. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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