paweather Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, paweather5 said: ukie is ugly when does the west trend stop. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: Yeah complaining about 6 vs 16 is probably not right, but I've been sucked in and see enough to see it in jeopardy. I'm not panicking. If I get a crap ton of sleet on top of 6-10 I'll be alright. It's all good my friend. I get it, I got sucked in for over a foot but who knows. I'll be up all night tomorrow night. LOL. I have been up after 1am every night to catch the EURO. Good time for remote work. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Euro will really tip the scales IMO. Parsing over thermal profiles, we are still safe, although SE is marginally so for a few panels. Thats going over the 700's and 850's, so while best forcing may be NW, we may depend on rates prior to any changeover for eastern locals. Were on the edge, but still have a little buffer. With model's seemingly starting to zero on taking the surface low essentially to the Chesapeake Bay Bridge (the Baltimore one), it's pretty likely at least the southern parts of York/Lancaster have a period mid storm where they mix. I think it'd be mainly sleet north of the mason-dixon line but a low track that close is probably going to introduce p-type issues there for a couple hours. Once the low starts to make it's fade heading toward going under Long Island and New England I think anyone mixing in PA will promptly go back to snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 With model's seemingly starting to zero on taking the surface low essentially to the Chesapeake Bay Bridge (the Baltimore one), it's pretty likely at least the southern parts of York/Lancaster have a period mid storm where they mix. I think it'd be mainly sleet north of the mason-dixon line but a low track that close is probably going to introduce p-type issues there for a couple hours. Once the low starts to make it's fade heading toward going under Long Island and New England I think anyone mixing in PA will promptly go back to snow. I’ve been expecting that to happen for a couple days. If we can minimize it for 2 hours, I will take my chip pile away and run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: With model's seemingly starting to zero on taking the surface low essentially to the Chesapeake Bay Bridge (the Baltimore one), it's pretty likely at least the southern parts of York/Lancaster have a period mid storm where they mix. I think it'd be mainly sleet north of the mason-dixon line but a low track that close is probably going to introduce p-type issues there for a couple hours. Once the low starts to make it's fade heading toward going under Long Island and New England I think anyone mixing in PA will promptly go back to snow. Yep. Agreed. Are you buying the "jump" to the western bay?? Several models show almost a retrograde kinda look, and not a progressive one. Thats my rub. Its had a progressive look for days, and now LP jumps west and erodes our precious thermals. IMO thats what I'm hoping is noise and not a noose for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 CTP updated Warning language. WINTER STORM WARNING ISSUED: 12:00 PM DEC. 15, 2020 – NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 9 to 12 inches to the west of the Interstate 99 corridor, and 12 to 18 inches across the remainder of South-central Pennsylvania * WHERE...The Southern half of Central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 10 AM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Bands of heavy snow with accumulation rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour are likely late Wednesday and Wednesday night. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission strongly encourage motorists to heed all travel restrictions and delay unnecessary travel as significant winter weather conditions will make travel very hazardous. Call 5 1 1 or visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway and traffic conditions. To report snow, post to the NWS State College Facebook page, use Twitter @NWSStateCollege, or visit weather.gov/ctp. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 What is current timing of snow?from southwest to northeast?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMDEW80 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just got bumped to a Winter Storm Warning in Tioga County Tioga- Including the cities of Mansfield and Wellsboro 1200 PM EST Tue Dec 15 2020 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 13 inches. * WHERE...Tioga County. * WHEN...From noon Wednesday to 10 AM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Heavy snow may make for very difficult to impossible travel conditions, particularly for the Wednesday evening commute through Wednesday night. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates of up to 2 inches per hour are expected late Wednesday and Wednesday night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, basehore said: Just got bumped to a Winter Storm Warning in Tioga County Tioga- Including the cities of Mansfield and Wellsboro 1200 PM EST Tue Dec 15 2020 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 13 inches. * WHERE...Tioga County. * WHEN...From noon Wednesday to 10 AM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Heavy snow may make for very difficult to impossible travel conditions, particularly for the Wednesday evening commute through Wednesday night. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates of up to 2 inches per hour are expected late Wednesday and Wednesday night. same here for 8-12" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 @HorstWeather Update: No major changes. 18"+ is likely in some central PA counties. However, I expect some sleet/ice will hold totals down to 6 - 12" in Lanc city. Higher amounts possible in NorLanco...lesser near MD border. Many forecasters ignoring low-end scenarios & snow climatology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Ukie was better then I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 @HorstWeather Update: No major changes. 18"+ is likely in some central PA counties. However, I expect some sleet/ice will hold totals down to 6 - 12" in Lanc city. Higher amounts possible in NorLanco...lesser near MD border. Many forecasters ignoring low-end scenarios & snow climatology. Was just about to post that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, paweather5 said: Ukie was better then I thought. oh, HELLO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 State College is likely looking at its biggest storm in more than 25 years. Awesome. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Ukie is Lanco's biggest fears...and probably correct to some extent. Glad that Maytown is in the NW part of the county. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Many of you are gong to be ripping at a 2"/hour clip tomorrow evening while Nut, Superstorm and myself play ping pong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, canderson said: State College is likely looking at its biggest storm in more than 25 years. Awesome. Wow that long ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, MJO812 said: Wow that long ? I read (unless I misread) it hasn't had a 20" storm since 1994. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 NWS still likes me...for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, MJO812 said: Wow that long ? State College lies in a valley far southeast enough of the great lakes to miss out on Lake Effect snow and far north enough to usually get fringed on nor'easters. It's meteorolical hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, canderson said: I read (unless I misread) it hasn't had a 20" storm since 1994. same here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 NWS still likes me...for nowWay high on eastern and central Lancaster. Be closer to 12”. If lucky....but they are the experts.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, pasnownut said: NWS still likes me...for now Looks good. I'll take it. I do feel the red shade ends up about 50-75 miles west of that to the Mount Union, Lewistown, Selinsgrove corridor and east to Carlisle and Harrisburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Euro has initialized......oh the freakin drama. I HATE drama..... But I'll watch this episode of "As our Snow/Sleet Falls" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Wow that long ? Yes, NYC has stolen about 15 of their snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: Good luck out there-certainly looks based on trends like I-80 corridor and I-81 north of I-80 do very well-essentially an arc from the Catskills to UNV/AOO. Something like a 3/14/17 outcome. If these models are right, could be the first 20"+ event for UNV since 1994? There should be a hellacious band just north of that 700mb low track, deformation and plenty of lift there, along with good ratios. Yup I think it would be. 96 and 03 came the closest with 18"ish. Nov '95 was also a 15-18" type snowstorm in UNV. It would be the first one for me personally from an IMBY perspective since '94, which I was 6-8 years old in 92-94 so I don't really remember that golden age for big snowstorms in this corridor. Jan '96, Feb 03, and Feb '10 were all high teens storms (still great events though of course). Just missed the 20"+ by about 15-20 miles in 2016. Hard to do around here, I'll believe it when my homemade snowboard that tops out at 20" disappears tomorrow night lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Yup I think it would be. 96 and 03 came the closest with 18"ish. Nov '95 was also a 15-18" type snowstorm in UNV. It would be the first one for me personally from an IMBY perspective since '94, which I was 6-8 years old in 92-94 so I don't really remember that golden age for big snowstorms in this corridor. Jan '96, Feb 03, and Feb '10 were all high teens storms (still great events though of course). Just missed the 20"+ by about 15-20 miles in 2016. Hard to do around here, I'll believe it when my homemade snowboard that tops out at 20" disappears tomorrow night lol. I sincerely hope you get that much and more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Through 24 looks pretty much the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: I sincerely hope you get that much and more. Me too. I’m rooting for the northern crew even if that means Harrisburg proper has to flip. They deserve the biggie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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