Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Central PA - Winter 2020/2021


MAG5035
 Share

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, paweather said:

If your in Shippensburg I am not sure what is slipping away from you. It does appear on the NAM that Lancaster county is at risk to turn to sleet/FRZ rain for a period of time.  

You are correct.

However, the trend north and the band of heaviest snow has moved notably north as well. His concern at this point is valid. (still think his area is in a really good spot)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I've been informing management at work since Saturday to expect 6-10" including a significant amount of ice. Admittedly, I was concerned that I was undershooting this until last evening. I feel pretty good about my call right now - even though they've been pushing back and saying that they're hearing that we're getting over 2'. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

You are correct.

However, the trend north and the band of heaviest snow has moved notably north as well. His concern at this point is valid. (still think his area is in a really good spot)

I think whatever/whoever changes over or mix of snow/sleet/FRZ rain is just for a small period of time based on the track of the low. It will not damper in snow totals all that much unless the model runs today continue to trend north and west further that even true Central PA gets into mixing. Highly doubt that. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think whatever/whoever changes over or mix of snow/sleet/FRZ rain is just for a small period of time based on the track of the low. It will not damper in snow totals all that much unless the model runs today continue to trend north and west further that even true Central PA gets into mixing. Highly doubt that. 

Yeah, would even be more concerned of dry slotting then the amount of sleet in Lancaster County.

I do think 6-10 for Lanco is a good solid call at this time. And most of that with the initial thump.


.
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, paweather said:

I think whatever/whoever changes over or mix of snow/sleet/FRZ rain is just for a small period of time based on the track of the low. It will not damper in snow totals all that much unless the model runs today continue to trend north and west further that even true Central PA gets into mixing. Highly doubt that. 

In fairness, you can see at 45 the "dampening" in my area (Lanco).  I looked S and SW of me to see the movement of the R/S line and I'm ok w/ what 12z did.  It's first out of the nooner gate, and seemed to stop the westward progression of the LP 

6z

namconus_ref_frzn_neus_38.png

12z

namconus_ref_frzn_neus_36.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

In fairness, you can see at 45 the "dampening" in my area (Lanco).  I looked S and SW of me to see the movement of the R/S line and I'm ok w/ what 12z did.  It's first out of the nooner gate, and seemed to stop the westward progression of the LP 

6z

namconus_ref_frzn_neus_38.png

12z

namconus_ref_frzn_neus_36.png

Agreed good comparison between 6z and 12z. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Superstorm said:


Yeah, would even be more concerned of dry slotting then the amount of sleet in Lancaster County.

I do think 6-10 for Lanco is a good solid call at this time. And most of that with the initial thump.


.

verbatim, no dry slot on 12k.  Scratch that off "our" worry list.  LP shift NE seemed to save us.  I liked the subtle increase of CAD and hope that in the next couple runs we continue to see the HP in Quebec do its thingy to the LSV thermal profiles.  Track really was nice, so I'm happy w/ that (and am cool w/ sleet in the mix - just not too much).

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

verbatim, no dry slot on 12k.  Scratch that off "our" worry list.  LP shift NE seemed to save us.  I liked the subtle increase of CAD and hope that in the next couple runs we continue to see the HP in Quebec do its thingy to the LSV thermal profiles.  Track really was nice, so I'm happy w/ that (and am cool w/ sleet in the mix - just not too much).

 

At the very least on the sleet changeover per model trends if it were to happen, very minimal and then back to all snow. We will see what the rest of the day brings. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Hey all. I’m chasing this storm up from Philly. I don’t want to drive more than 3 hours tops. I was thinking either poconos, but also Williamsport or around the Harrisburg region. Any spots you’d recommend based on current data? I’m a little worried in E PA about the deformation zone lifting farther N than anticipated, but that’d still be better for c pa. Can’t decide! I’d be leaving early  tomorrow morning so still time to get some model runs in.

Lewistown.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

verbatim, no dry slot on 12k.  Scratch that off "our" worry list.  LP shift NE seemed to save us.  I liked the subtle increase of CAD and hope that in the next couple runs we continue to see the HP in Quebec do its thingy to the LSV thermal profiles.  Track really was nice, so I'm happy w/ that (and am cool w/ sleet in the mix - just not too much).
 

Hope your right. HRRR was showing a nasty dry slot, but again, not sure model is in its range yet.


.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Speaking of dry slots, remember during the 2016 blizzard how that dry slot was racing N-NW out of eastern and central MD right towards us? (Lanco) The dry slot literally reached the M/D line JUST as the pivot took over and saved us. There were areas in NE MD that saw 12" less than we did all because they got dry slotted.

On the HRRR, it gets VERY close tomorrow evening. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Speaking of dry slots, remember during the 2016 blizzard how that dry slot was racing N-NW out of eastern and central MD right towards us? (Lanco) The dry slot literally reached the M/D line JUST as the pivot took over and saved us. There were areas in NE MD that saw 12" less than we did all because they got dry slotted.

On the HRRR, it gets VERY close tomorrow evening. 

Go loop the 3k and you'll see a similar presentation.  We get decent pivot lovin in eastern pa including LSV on 3k.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, paweather said:

I don't think you would have to travel to see it go down at this point. 

That was more for the world travelers coming in from Hagerstown and Havre de Grace and Nick Foles' house than anything. Although, getting back out on the dam toward Ridenhour Overlook (for anyone whose been to the lake before) would be an insane view. You'd be stuck there until March, though.

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...