Blizzard of 93 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Most models seem to be on board for at least 1 to 3 inches of snow tomorrow in southern PA. The 0z GFS is on board with 1 to 3 inches of snow tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 @HorstWeather "Wednesday storm is fast, but potent...with a perfect (for snow) 1037mb high over Quebec. Temps below freezing throughout, but a period of "mix" likely (Lanco) at peak of storm (warm intrusion aloft). My "first call" is 6 - 12" (Lanco), w/ 16" likely N & W of Harrisburg." "The upper-level energy for the Wednesday storm is just coming into norCal today...so the storm track in the Mid-Atlantic is subject to shift a bit. Right now, the heaviest in PA looks to be near Blue Mountain and I-81 to I-87 to Poconos...with a bullseye of 16"+ possible." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just a classic look: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: @HorstWeather "Wednesday storm is fast, but potent...with a perfect (for snow) 1037mb high over Quebec. Temps below freezing throughout, but a period of "mix" likely (Lanco) at peak of storm (warm intrusion aloft). My "first call" is 6 - 12" (Lanco), w/ 16" likely N & W of Harrisburg." "The upper-level energy for the Wednesday storm is just coming into norCal today...so the storm track in the Mid-Atlantic is subject to shift a bit. Right now, the heaviest in PA looks to be near Blue Mountain and I-81 to I-87 to Poconos...with a bullseye of 16"+ possible." You mentioned earlier in the thread that he left Millersville. Did he retire or head elsewhere? For my money, he's the best Pennsylvania has to offer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: You mentioned earlier in the thread that he left Millersville. Did he retire or head elsewhere? For my money, he's the best Pennsylvania has to offer. Retired. I’m not a fan but that’s for very personal reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 7 minutes ago, paweather said: Looks like a skeleton crew tonight. Lets bring it home. GFS/CMC/EURO. I’m here! I don’t see any reason to expect any changes for this forum - we are pretty set In stone. Far, far SE might get screwed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, canderson said: Retired. I’m not a fan but that’s for very personal reasons. Right. I hate people with Belgian names, people who shtoop my wife, welch on bets, stuff like that, too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Another run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 CMC rolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 What's the GFS seeing that the other models aren't? The Poconos above I-80 don't really get much. That dip south puts me on a tight gradient, perhaps not even seeing a foot here. I believe this is at least the second run that's done this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Here is a closer look at the GFS. It has a more offshore track than the other models, but that would limit mixing for our southeast crew. About 3 inches of this falls tomorrow morning in the Harrisburg area. Here are the 10 to 1 and Kuchera ratio maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, Voyager said: What's the GFS seeing that the other models aren't? The Poconos above I-80 don't really get much. That dip south puts me on a tight gradient, perhaps not even seeing a foot here. I believe this is at least the second run that's done this. I'll let the experts to tell you but it is the most progressive model of all of them at this point. * Meaning more confluence than other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, paweather said: I'll let the experts to tell you but it is the most progressive model of all of them at this point. No problem, thanks. Almost every other model rocks NEPA, except for the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, Voyager said: No problem, thanks. Almost every other model rocks NEPA, except for the GFS. I’m no expert but the confluence is an issue for GFS so it ha to impact this run. Compare it to the RGEM in New York - it’s a 20” difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 GFS is usually the most suppressed, NAM is usually the most amped. Biases factored in, I still think I-81 is money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 CMC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 00z CMC goes full over my house 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 7 minutes ago, canderson said: I’m no expert but the confluence is an issue for GFS so it ha to impact this run. Compare it to the RGEM in New York - it’s a 20” difference. 5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: GFS is usually the most suppressed, NAM is usually the most amped. Biases factored in, I still think I-81 is money. Thanks guys! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 14, 2020 Author Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, Voyager said: No problem, thanks. Almost every other model rocks NEPA, except for the GFS. Yea GFS has had real estate between the coastline and the low center. Most other guidance has had that low inside the Chesapeake and Delaware Bay before it starts the fade under LI. I tend to lean towards the inside guidance. SST's are on fire anomaly wise and our cold air mass, while plenty cold for this... is not overly frigid. Would suggest the boundary this runs on will be right along the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, AllWeather said: 00z CMC goes full over my house Allweather been showing this run after run. One more tonight EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 GFS Para: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Here is the 0z Canadian super zoomed in for CTP. The 10 to 1 map is impressive, but the Kuchera map should be illegal! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: Here is the 0z Canadian super zoomed in for CTP. The 10 to 1 map is impressive, but the Kuchera map should be illegal! Blizz Love it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 14, 2020 Author Share Posted December 14, 2020 On tomorrow's event, been watching the HRRR. It's been having more p-type issues especially in the Lower Sus Valley but even in the south-central counties back near the I-99 corridor. Could end up being even more elevational. I know surface temps have dropped off in a few spots where it cleared a bit but mesoanalysis showing 925mb temps aloft lagging in the south and HRRR has trouble getting them to 0ºC in the LSV during the event tomorrow morning. Something to consider for this event in the short term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 6 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: On tomorrow's event, been watching the HRRR. It's been having more p-type issues especially in the Lower Sus Valley but even in the south-central counties back near the I-99 corridor. Could end up being even more elevational. I know surface temps have dropped off in a few spots where it cleared a bit but mesoanalysis showing 925mb temps aloft lagging in the south and HRRR has trouble getting them to 0ºC in the LSV during the event tomorrow morning. Something to consider for this event in the short term. CTP agrees that elevation should help tomorrow, but most places in southern PA should get 1 to 2 inches of snow. “Model soundings indicate precipitation will start as rain over the Lower Susq Valley. However, wet-bulbing of the low levels and increased deep-layer uvvel will likely lead to a quick changeover to wet snow, that could be briefly moderate in intensity from I-81 southward during the 14Z-18Z time frame. A blend of latest model guidance supports a light accumulation of wet snow across primarily the southern tier of the forecast area. With temperatures above freezing in many spots, expect accumulations to be highly elevation dependent. In general, expect 1-2 inches across the southern tier of the state and just a coating further north. However, the higher elevations of southern Pa, such as South Mountain, could see close to 3 inches. Since temps will be in the 31-35F range for the duration of the snow, most treated roads in the valleys should stay wet. Most susceptible roads to a light slushy covering will be those traversing the tops and north sides of ridges where insolation through the thick cloud cover will be minimal. The back edge of the snow should be exiting the central mountains by 15Z and the southeast corner of the forecast area by around 19Z, as surface low pushes east of the Delmarva.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Time to get ready for the 0z EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 14, 2020 Author Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Here is the 0z Canadian super zoomed in for CTP. The 10 to 1 map is impressive, but the Kuchera map should be illegal! So far I'm seeing the same general thing as last night. GFS most southeast with it's heaviest snow axis and limits NW extent on 6"+ and CMC simultaneously with good extent in the subforum but it's axis of downright excessive snows cutting from York/Lancaster counties to Allentown (a bit NW of the GFS heavy swath). The good thing for us is we're essentially boiled down to where the excessive snow (12-18+ type stuff) band is going to be within what should be a subforum wide warning event (I expect warning criteria for 2001kx and wsptwx too) and perhaps some mixing issues for a time mid-storm near the LSV MD border. You should see the discrepancy with the GFS/GEFS vs the other globals over in southern New England. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 7 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: So far I'm seeing the same general thing as last night. GFS most southeast with it's heaviest snow axis and limits NW extent on 6"+ and CMC simultaneously with good extent in the subforum but it's axis of downright excessive snows cutting from York/Lancaster counties to Allentown (a bit NW of the GFS heavy swath). The good thing for us is we're essentially boiled down to where the excessive snow (12-18+ type stuff) band is going to be within what should be a subforum wide warning event (I expect warning criteria for 2001kx and wsptwx too) and perhaps some mixing issues for a time mid-storm near the LSV MD border. You should see the discrepancy with the GFS/GEFS vs the other globals over in southern New England. Fingers crossed 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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