Blizzard of 93 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 @MAG5035 Unless you really fainted....What do you think of the 0z runs tonight?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 I almost passed out again when I saw the 2 event combined snow total for this week on the 0z Euro! The regular 10 to 1 ratio map is fantastic... but the Kuchera ratio amount would be historic for some of us in here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 12, 2020 Author Share Posted December 12, 2020 16 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: @MAG5035 Unless you really fainted....What do you think of the 0z runs tonight?! We’re definitely looking good at the moment, I’ve noticed the globals are starting to solidify the NW extent of the precip shield which is a good sign for getting west central PA and the Pittsburgh folks more involved. The Canadian op still seems the most SE with the axis of heaviest snow, but looks like the CMC ensemble align a bit more toward the GFS/Euro. Euro is def the most amped, pretty much representing a nearly best case scenario for most of our region save for perhaps a period of p-type issues in York/Lancaster. A simple blend of everything puts most of C-PA and all of the Sus Valley in a pretty good place. All of that for Wed/Thurs and the GFS/GEFS/CMC ensemble are showing more support for the Euro’s more robust initial wave and lighter snowfall potential in at least the southern tier of the state Monday. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 This is the best GFS run yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 The models sniff out the classics a week in advance and then generally lose them temporarily about 3-4 days out, only to find them again. I wouldn't be shocked if we lost it either midday today or tomorrow for a few runs, but considering CTP is posting info graphics this far out, it seems like it's a good shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 7 hours ago, canderson said: Fun story: got this tonight n mechanicsburg and something happened with the app and I got $12 of food for free. 8 hours ago, Atomixwx said: Just build a bunch of Chick-Fil-A's at the Mason Dixon line. That'll slow it right up. https://trib.al/sQ1eWmt LMFAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 43 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: The models sniff out the classics a week in advance and then generally lose them temporarily about 3-4 days out, only to find them again. I wouldn't be shocked if we lost it either midday today or tomorrow for a few runs, but considering CTP is posting info graphics this far out, it seems like it's a good shot. That’s been in the back of my mind as well. Don’t be surprised if we “lose it” for a bit. It’s happened many times. Sure is lookin good tho. 6z gfs was pretty stellar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 The Monday storm still needs to be figured out. Will it be a tiny appetizer or a small plate? Here are CTP’s thoughts this morning on the Monday event: “The models are not in total agreement with the northward extent and QPF amounts, even though timing is similar. Neither of the solutions is generally preferred, and the spread is also good info. For now, we have bumped up the PoPs across the S to categorical (>80%) and mentioned 1-2" of snow in the southern half of the area. There are motions by the 00Z European and 06Z GFS representatives to push the heavier precip farther to the north. The 06Z NAM takes the QPF to another level and would make a significant snowfall event if it were to come to fruition. The arguments against the heavier QPF are two-fold: The fast W-E storm speed, and the Wrly/NWrly flow throughout the event which could bring in drier air and cut down both the northward extent of the precip and the QPF amounts.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 11 minutes ago, pasnownut said: That’s been in the back of my mind as well. Don’t be surprised if we “lose it” for a bit. It’s happened many times. Sure is lookin good tho. 6z gfs was pretty stellar. If we have 1 off run I’m sure that our friends @Eskimo Joe & @canderson will cancel the storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: If we have 1 off run I’m sure that our friends @Eskimo Joe & @canderson will cancel the storm! Naw. It's an early season event and I'm expecting mixing at my house. You're all looking pretty good in Central PA. We're in the Euro's wheelhouse now and it's still solid. If this holds through 00z Monday runs we are probably good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 hour ago, Atomixwx said: The models sniff out the classics a week in advance and then generally lose them temporarily about 3-4 days out, only to find them again. I wouldn't be shocked if we lost it either midday today or tomorrow for a few runs, but considering CTP is posting info graphics this far out, it seems like it's a good shot. 19 minutes ago, pasnownut said: That’s been in the back of my mind as well. Don’t be surprised if we “lose it” for a bit. It’s happened many times. Sure is lookin good tho. 6z gfs was pretty stellar. Usually it's a NAM run that is a complete miss, and often by a ridiculous amount. 6 hours later it comes back with 3.5" of QPF. GFS is also good for a suppressed, strung-out run or 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 At least I have about 2 miles to spare on this map: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 56 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Naw. It's an early season event and I'm expecting mixing at my house. You're all looking pretty good in Central PA. We're in the Euro's wheelhouse now and it's still solid. If this holds through 00z Monday runs we are probably good. Thanks man! I was just joking around. Some of us remember in January 2016 when you canceled the storm after 1 off Euro run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: At least I have about 2 miles to spare on this map: They always say that you need to smell the rain to get the best snow! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: They always say that you need to smell the rain to get the best snow! I live on that fault line and have grown accustomed to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, pasnownut said: I live on that fault line and have grown accustomed to it. What are your thoughts on how the 2 storms play out this week? P.S. I love being able to just ask this question after what we endured last season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Here are the 2 NAMs from the 12z run. The answer probably will end up in the middle of these 2 solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Here is the 6z EPS for the Monday appetizer to small plate event. It gets snow further north into CTP than the Op runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 I’m not too picky this year on snow, but I’d love to get a storm that is shoveable. My shovels are lonely after. not being used last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 hmmm.....Rain on the backside of us per GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 12z OP GFS is money for Wed. Can't post images because I'm mobile, but it's good for you all. Solid warning event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Round 2: can't get a better look than this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Here is the12z GFS regional look for Wednesday night....Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Here is the map that most us want to see! This is just for the Wednesday/Thursday event, not counting Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Is Cashtown jackpot yet? Asking for a friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Here is the 12z GFS combination of the 2 events as of Thursday. Amazing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 CMC continues a bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 6 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Here is the12z GFS regional look for Wednesday night....Wow! Obviously subject to change, but as depicted, I'd see some insane rates during the height of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Obviously subject to change, but as depicted, I'd see some insane rates during the height of the storm.Easily 2 to 3 inch an hour during peak def band.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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