paweather Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: verbatim, its an early early transfer (which is what we'd want) as antecedent cold isnt too strong. As depicted, its a best case scenario, as it wouldnt warm the thermal fields too much, so we' basically have a cleaner look to the storm. Makes sense. Instead of a more northern transfer look. It transfer early and looks more like a Miller A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 6 minutes ago, pasnownut said: verbatim, its an early early transfer (which is what we'd want) as antecedent cold isnt too strong. As depicted, its a best case scenario, as it wouldnt warm the thermal fields too much, so we' basically have a cleaner look to the storm. I'll settle for a modified Miller B ala 1996 and call it a season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Well would you look at that. I'll be right back. I gotta go exchange all this money for some chips. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 13 minutes ago, paweather said: Makes sense. Instead of a more northern transfer look. It transfer early and looks more like a Miller A. heres that panel shat shows what I'm talking about. You can see the closed contours over southern Ill. next frame, its of NC coast and right where we want it. again its just a run, but its a nice run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 4 minutes ago, pasnownut said: heres that panel shat shows what I'm talking about. You can see the closed contours over southern Ill. next frame, its of NC coast and right where we want it. again its just a run, but its a nice run. Thanks for the visual of it. And your right only one of many to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 And of course the Canadian 12z is out to sea after it was a great run yesterday. Welcome to another Winter full of model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 10, 2020 Author Share Posted December 10, 2020 The GFS is def more miller B in it's evolution with the Ohio Valley low. I'd argue that scenario probably has more precip hanging back over most of the state, but the seemingly early takeover of the coastal definitely would take away from the actual central part of central PA and western PA in that scenario. Pretty close to last night's Euro. That looked like more of a straight miller A with only a little bit of surface reflection to the Ohio Valley. That probably could have more precip on its NW quadrant too. Not going to sweat those details though. Models are starting to see this particular threat and that's a step in the right direction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 EURO seems to be looking good for PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 28 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: The GFS is def more miller B in it's evolution with the Ohio Valley low. I'd argue that scenario probably has more precip hanging back over most of the state, but the seemingly early takeover of the coastal definitely would take away from the actual central part of central PA and western PA in that scenario. Pretty close to last night's Euro. That looked like more of a straight miller A with only a little bit of surface reflection to the Ohio Valley. That probably could have more precip on its NW quadrant too. Not going to sweat those details though. Models are starting to see this particular threat and that's a step in the right direction. Sounds like DT is all in on a Miller B for the midweek event. He's "growling" for areas N&E of the PA Turnpike...not quite "woofing" yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: Sounds like DT is all in on a Miller B for the midweek event. He's "growling" for areas N&E of the PA Turnpike...not quite "woofing" yet. LOL. Yeah I'm over there as well just for the EURO run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Sounds like DT is all in on a Miller B for the midweek event. He's "growling" for areas N&E of the PA Turnpike...not quite "woofing" yet. Not sure what to think of DT anymore. Seeing how smitten he is w/ the EPS over the last few years, he's gone down w/ a lot of ships ya know. Best lunch takeaway to me is that it seems like we are another day closer to some appreciable tracking ops. as we approach the mid term and things start to look more legit. Really glad to see the models adjusting to the tellies. Have a good rest of your day all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Not sure what to think of DT anymore. Seeing how smitten he is w/ the EPS over the last few years, he's gone down w/ a lot of ships ya know. Best lunch takeaway to me is that it seems like we are another day closer to some appreciable tracking ops. as we approach the mid term and things start to look more legit. Really glad to see the models adjusting to the tellies. Have a good rest of your day all. Wonder what happened to Bob Chill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Just now, pasnownut said: Not sure what to think of DT anymore. Seeing how smitten he is w/ the EPS over the last few years, he's gone down w/ a lot of ships ya know. Best lunch takeaway to me is that it seems like we are another day closer to some appreciable tracking ops. as we approach the near term and things start to look more legit. Really glad to see the models adjusting to the tellies. Have a good rest of your day all. It's hard to not be interested given the setup - going to be some fun days of tracking ahead. Far better than this time last year. Nice to see the Atlantic playing nice with us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Looks like a hit. (I stole this from MA) I don't know where to get these types of EURO maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 One more from the EURO and I promise, well, maybe no more for a while. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 12 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: It's hard to not be interested given the setup - going to be some fun days of tracking ahead. Far better than this time last year. Nice to see the Atlantic playing nice with us. yep. I also corrected my post as i stated near term, but were really headed twds mid term. Still close enough to count right?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 6 minutes ago, paweather said: One more from the EURO and I promise, well, maybe no more for a while. :-) Seeing the big guns all pointed in a similar direction is a welcome sight for sore eyes. Lets hope goalposts dont jump too much. As the cold air is finally being seen/realized, lets hope that helps w/ coming model runs. We shouldnt see this one or the next one headed back to the lakes in coming days. Pattern supports what we are seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 9 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Seeing the big guns all pointed in a similar direction is a welcome sight for sore eyes. Lets hope goalposts dont jump too much. As the cold air is finally being seen/realized, lets hope that helps w/ coming model runs. We shouldnt see this one or the next one headed back to the lakes in coming days. Pattern supports what we are seeing. Yep. Agreed. I am just glad we will have something to track over the weekend....HOPEFULLY! that it doesn't disappear tomorrow. Happy hour runs coming up and I'll buy today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 1 hour ago, paweather said: Wonder what happened to Bob Chill. Not sure, but as we've all played down in the MA forum (some more than others), and one can see how taxing it can be to enjoy this sport...especially down there. I'd guess its burnout and lack of ROI (at least thats what I've struggled w/ in the past). Of course we all know to temper expectations, but we've had more than a few rugs pulled (wrt NAO, MJO and other things) not materializing as modeled. Couple that w/ a ratter pattern like last year, and for a true snow lover, its tough. Tombo, mitch, heavy and a few other great contributors have moved on (tombo pops in when not on his forum once in a while). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 I like this look for an ENS mean: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Not sure, but as we've all played down in the MA forum (some more than others), and one can see how taxing it can be to enjoy this sport...especially down there. I'd guess its burnout and lack of ROI (at least thats what I've struggled w/ in the past). Of course we all know to temper expectations, but we've had more than a few rugs pulled (wrt NAO, MJO and other things) not materializing as modeled. Couple that w/ a ratter pattern like last year, and for a true snow lover, its tough. Tombo, mitch, heavy and a few other great contributors have moved on (tombo pops in when not on his forum once in a while). Yeah I miss those guys. Actually today in viewing it, no bad at all. Some really good maps that I cannot get access to are being posted and the EPS came in per MA very good as well on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Not sure, but as we've all played down in the MA forum (some more than others), and one can see how taxing it can be to enjoy this sport...especially down there. I'd guess its burnout and lack of ROI (at least thats what I've struggled w/ in the past). Of course we all know to temper expectations, but we've had more than a few rugs pulled (wrt NAO, MJO and other things) not materializing as modeled. Couple that w/ a ratter pattern like last year, and for a true snow lover, its tough. Tombo, mitch, heavy and a few other great contributors have moved on (tombo pops in when not on his forum once in a while). Heavy moved forecast offices, he's down in Sterling now, or at least was. He has posted sporadically in the Mid Atlantic threads. I miss the days when everyone would follow Tombo's legendary panel by panel Euro descriptions from years ago... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 10, 2020 Author Share Posted December 10, 2020 25 minutes ago, paweather said: One more from the EURO and I promise, well, maybe no more for a while. :-) Wsmptwx FTW on the 12z Euro haha. The Kuchera map gave him about 30". This seems to have a pretty solid showing on the ensembles today, even on the Canadian ensembles where the op whiffed today at 12z. This potential event definitely has my attention now. That NAO over the top blocking driving the storm track down is definitely a beautiful thing (hopefully not too much of a beautiful thing). The decent 500mb feature and longwave trough being modeled that drives this doesn't look overly complicated either, e.g. needing a thread the needle phase to make it pop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 1 minute ago, MAG5035 said: Wsmptwx FTW on the 12z Euro haha. The Kuchera map gave him about 30". This seems to have a pretty solid showing on the ensembles today, even on the Canadian ensembles where the op whiffed today at 12z. This potential event definitely has my attention now. That NAO over the top blocking driving the storm track down is definitely a beautiful thing (hopefully not too much of a beautiful thing). The decent 500mb feature and longwave trough being modeled that drives this doesn't look overly complicated either, e.g. needing a thread the needle phase to make it pop. Thanks MAG! Building up excitement here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Hey all, there's cause to rejoice. About 35 - 40% of the 12 EPS give THV/LNS/MDT 6"+ snow in the next 10 calendar days. About 50% give HZL and MPO 6"+ during the same time. There's been a marked shift to colder, wetter solutions. Hopefully they hold, because it appears we are entering a period of colder storms and some folks here stand the chance of a white Christmas. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Not the best Happy Hour run but the signal is still there, low is just a weaker sheer look to me. Still gets snow into C/S PA but nothing like 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 6 minutes ago, paweather said: Not the best Happy Hour run but the signal is still there, low is just a weaker sheer look to me. Still gets snow into C/S PA but nothing like 12z. Happy Hour doesn't mean the same when the bars are closed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 5 hours ago, paweather said: One more from the EURO and I promise, well, maybe no more for a while. :-) Wow! What a great run! Too bad there are 5 days to go...most of us would be happy with less than half of this run! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 4 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: I like this look for an ENS mean: That is a fantastic winter storm signal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 We can’t totally write off the chance for an appetizer event on Monday. There is still a chance that we should keep our eyes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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