Central PA - Winter 2020/2021

[Voyager]

I'm right on the edge of the precipitation shield. So far 0.14" in the gauge, but I'd be willing to bet once I got north of Hazleton the ground is dry as a bone...

[canderson]

Tomorrow was to feature a snow/rain mix. Now it’ll be clear and windy. I give up following forecasts. 

[Itstrainingtime]

.64" in the bucket thus far - should end up fairly close to 1" for the event. 

[Blizzard of 93]

The happy hour 18z GFS had this storm for us that is only 300 or so hours away!

Maybe we can get a little light snow on Monday if the storm comes together in time and trends a little further north. Lots of moving parts to sort out that the models might not get a handle on until after the New England snow storm moves out tomorrow night.

In the meantime, I’m going to dream of a Winter Storm watch getting hoisted for this storm in just 300 short hours...

[pawatch]

12 hours ago, canderson said:

Tomorrow was to feature a snow/rain mix. Now it’ll be clear and windy. I give up following forecasts. 

Just my opinion but NWS has been terrible lately. Predicted rainfall I usually figure about 1/2 and it has ended up being pretty close.

I just chalk it up to 2020 

From Friday morning...the forecast has sure changed.

 

Bliz thanks! Always lots of moving parts for us, and threading the needle. 

[Blizzard of 93]

The 0z EPS offers some good hope for Winter Storm chances as we head into the end of next week towards mid month.

The pattern looks great at the end of the EPS run with -NAO, the ridge out west and the trough in the east.
The 15 day snow map, for purposes of identifying trends, has the best look of the season for the Mid Atlantic & North East. 

Hopefully soon we are tracking a specific winter storm threat in the not too distant future.

 

[anotherman]

You can always tell when things look bleak by the amount of posts in here.  I think I was tricked again into thinking things might be different this year.

[Superstorm]

You can always tell when things look bleak by the amount of posts in here.  I think I was tricked again into thinking things might be different this year.

Models have turned on a dime.

All I see now is PAC weather flooding the continent.


.

[Blizzard of 93]

I found our snow chances on last night’s 0z  GFS-Para run. It has 2 winter storms for us. The first one is next Monday the 14th and the second storm is next Friday the 19th. 

Only 200 to 300 hours away....what could go wrong?
 

[MAG5035]

11 hours ago, Superstorm said:

Models have turned on a dime.

All I see now is PAC weather flooding the continent.
 

Not until parts of VA probably see their first light snowfall of the season tomorrow lol.

11 hours ago, anotherman said:

You can always tell when things look bleak by the amount of posts in here.  I think I was tricked again into thinking things might be different this year.

Overall pessimism for the eastern US has been the general consensus I've seen of outlooks (even JB) for this winter. With a solidly moderate La Nina ongoing, the tendency is for the MJO to favor 4-5 as we settle into the the main part of winter. Not necessarily something that ultimately results in a complete non-winter, but could mean the base winter pattern in the east favors above average temps (eastern ridge) more often than not. This is something I anticipate being an issue that probably ruins a period of prime winter real estate at some point in Jan/Feb if we flare up a strong MJO pulse through 4-6. Again, that in itself doesn't mean we won't see anything at all or periods where we have a favorable setup. I mean, the dreaded high amplitude eastern ridge favoring MJO pulse doesn't necessarily have to materialize either. But that's what these stronger Ninas like to favor historically.  

As I've mentioned in a couple posts, I expect a season about 75% of normal in most of PA with the Laurel's/NW seeing the best chance of a near average season. It's not a deal breaker by any means but what happens in December weighs heavily on that thinking as I'm banking on a fast start this month with perhaps one or two widespread events that get all of us off and running. From about 5 miles west of my house at the start of the Laurel's to Pittsburgh/western PA, mission accomplished so far there with early last week's storm and associated LES/upslope. For all of us in this subforum, well we just missed lol. And I really haven't liked the pattern alignment for us that ultimately set up for yesterday's coastal in New England and is setting up tomorrow's minor event that will be well south of PA. The positive orientation of the axis of the sprawling ridge in the western/central US into Canada just isn't allowing the dig we need out of the northern branch IMO. Yesterday's coastal was primarily a southern branch event that got some late phasing way too late for us and as a double whammy, the northern stream orientation didn't allow for a cold air mass for this event, depending mainly on dynamics of the rapidly deepening coastal to get the swath of snow to the New England folks that were lucky enough to see it. So now of course that we're actually settling in a colder regime tonight and dropping a shortwave straight out of Canada, the orientation is such that the partial phasing of features are going to force the developing coastal way low and out to sea with the press of that sprawling ridge. 

So despite some opportunities, C-PA and the LSV ends up with a swing and a miss for the opening week of December. We moderate back above average late this week after a few chilly days as that ridge eventually pushes into the eastern US. It's likely we're going to have to deal with another cutting system near D7 to perhaps reset things back to getting another period of opportunity the following week. In terms of teleconnections, there is some good there. Models have been generally favoring somewhat negative NAO and AO and while we lose the big +PNA, it may be more neutral than outright negative depending on which ensemble has their way. MJO influence looks dampened as modeling has been keeping that within the circle. The big sticking point I"m seeing right now is the EPO being forecast to swing positive, which could imply a strong Pac jet and perhaps Pac influence on our temps and/or storm track unless we can counteract with higher heights in the NAO realm/eastern Canada to force the northern branch storm track down. 

 

[Atomixwx]

Is December 7 too early to cancel winter?

[Blizzard of 93]

7 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

Not until parts of VA probably see their first light snowfall of the season tomorrow lol.

Overall pessimism for the eastern US has been the general consensus I've seen of outlooks (even JB) for this winter. With a solidly moderate La Nina ongoing, the tendency is for the MJO to favor 4-5 as we settle into the the main part of winter. Not necessarily something that ultimately results in a complete non-winter, but could mean the base winter pattern in the east favors above average temps (eastern ridge) more often than not. This is something I anticipate being an issue that probably ruins a period of prime winter real estate at some point in Jan/Feb if we flare up a strong MJO pulse through 4-6. Again, that in itself doesn't mean we won't see anything at all or periods where we have a favorable setup. I mean, the dreaded high amplitude eastern ridge favoring MJO pulse doesn't necessarily have to materialize either. But that's what these stronger Ninas like to favor historically.  

As I've mentioned in a couple posts, I expect a season about 75% of normal in most of PA with the Laurel's/NW seeing the best chance of a near average season. It's not a deal breaker by any means but what happens in December weighs heavily on that thinking as I'm banking on a fast start this month with perhaps one or two widespread events that get all of us off and running. From about 5 miles west of my house at the start of the Laurel's to Pittsburgh/western PA, mission accomplished so far there with early last week's storm and associated LES/upslope. For all of us in this subforum, well we just missed lol. And I really haven't liked the pattern alignment for us that ultimately set up for yesterday's coastal in New England and is setting up tomorrow's minor event that will be well south of PA. The positive orientation of the axis of the sprawling ridge in the western/central US into Canada just isn't allowing the dig we need out of the northern branch IMO. Yesterday's coastal was primarily a southern branch event that got some late phasing way too late for us and as a double whammy, the northern stream orientation didn't allow for a cold air mass for this event, depending mainly on dynamics of the rapidly deepening coastal to get the swath of snow to the New England folks that were lucky enough to see it. So now of course that we're actually settling in a colder regime tonight and dropping a shortwave straight out of Canada, the orientation is such that the partial phasing of features are going to force the developing coastal way low and out to sea with the press of that sprawling ridge. 

So despite some opportunities, C-PA and the LSV ends up with a swing and a miss for the opening week of December. We moderate back above average late this week after a few chilly days as that ridge eventually pushes into the eastern US. It's likely we're going to have to deal with another cutting system near D7 to perhaps reset things back to getting another period of opportunity the following week. In terms of teleconnections, there is some good there. Models have been generally favoring somewhat negative NAO and AO and while we lose the big +PNA, it may be more neutral than outright negative depending on which ensemble has their way. MJO influence looks dampened as modeling has been keeping that within the circle. The big sticking point I"m seeing right now is the EPO being forecast to swing positive, which could imply a strong Pac jet and perhaps Pac influence on our temps and/or storm track unless we can counteract with higher heights in the NAO realm/eastern Canada to force the northern branch storm track down. 

 

Great post!

I think that many of us would take 75% of normal snow and run after last year’s disaster of a Winter. 
For the Harrisburg area, 75% of the normal seasonal snow average would be around 23 inches of snow. 
Hopefully we are in business again next week!

[canderson]

I've said I consider our climate now to be basically southern Virginia. Well, it snowed today in RIchmond so maybe we're closer to northern Georgia now. 

[Atomixwx]

32 minutes ago, canderson said:

I've said I consider our climate now to be basically southern Virginia. Well, it snowed today in RIchmond so maybe we're closer to northern Georgia now. 

It's actually the Ohio Valley from Cincinnati through Knoxville. The piedmont gets more snow than the ridge and valley Appalachia anymore, but we're probably more comparable to the Ohio Valley. 

[Itstrainingtime]

1 hour ago, canderson said:

I've said I consider our climate now to be basically southern Virginia. Well, it snowed today in RIchmond so maybe we're closer to northern Georgia now. 

I thought you said Leesburg, which is in northern Virginia. When I read that post my first thought was that you were spot on. I think a comparison to that general area is good...notsomuch southern VA.

[Blizzard of 93]

We have the chance of some light snow on Wednesday morning. It’s showing on all of the models today. It’s not much, but a few hours of light snow that brings a coating would be nice.

 

[Blizzard of 93]

CTP has introduced a chance of light snow into their forecast for overnight & tomorrow am in the Harrisburg area.

I would just be happy to see a couple of hours of light snow and maybe a coating in some areas!

[Atomixwx]

I can't help but notice you've tempered your excitement on these posts from posting about big events 700 hours out to light snow at some point in the future. 

 

That's when you know it's been a few shit seasons with no end in sight. 

[Itstrainingtime]

4 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

CTP has introduced a chance of light snow into their forecast for overnight & tomorrow am in the Harrisburg area.

I would just be happy to see a couple of hours of light snow and maybe a coating in some areas!

Yes. 

In March, the last thing I want is a coating - that is big game season for me. Right now, on December 8th, I'd love to see snow. Any amount is fine and gladly appreciated! 

[MAG5035]

19 hours ago, canderson said:

I've said I consider our climate now to be basically southern Virginia. Well, it snowed today in RIchmond so maybe we're closer to northern Georgia now. 

 

4 hours ago, Atomixwx said:

I can't help but notice you've tempered your excitement on these posts from posting about big events 700 hours out to light snow at some point in the future. 

 

That's when you know it's been a few shit seasons with no end in sight. 

I think we should keep some perspective on the fact that Harrisburg has had 5 above average winters just in the last decade (5 of the last 7 winters to be more specific). I mean you can put the asterisk on 2015-16 that like 30 of the 39 inches came from Jonas but then you'd have to do the same thing for 82-83 that featured the 83 blizzard in that super Nino winter as well (25 of the 36"). 

So yea last year sucked, I think we're all aware of that. But I can pick out collective bad periods (88-92, 96-02, 05-09, 11-13, etc), or overall just point out that in this 40 year chart that 23/40 were below the mean and close to half (17 winters) were 75% or less of the mean. If we end up stringing together a few lackluster winters in a row the next couple years, it's definitely not something that hasn't happened before. Obviously it's a different story if we stack up several winters in close proximity as historically bad as last winter, but until such a point I look at last winter as an anomaly where an even more anomalous weather pattern (unprecedented +AO regime) had a big part in it. 

 

[Itstrainingtime]

We've (LSV specific) have been spoiled rotten since 2003 with big daddy snowstorms. After suffering from the '83 blizzard pretty much up until the '93 winter, the past year or two while frustrating, does not compare to that stretch. 

Patience...

[paweather]

Is this the timeframe we are looking at, could be? This is not a cutter.

[pasnownut]

25 minutes ago, paweather said:

Is this the timeframe we are looking at, could be? This is not a cutter.

Not a cutter but looks like a killer B to me...

Closed countours of the SE coast show Coastal transfer complete in following 2 frames and verbatim, saves the 80 north crew, but yeah, i'd take that early on and be happy for the northern crew.  

 

Sign here ___________Nut______________________

 

 

[paweather]

2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Not a cutter but looks like a killer B to me...

Closed countours of the SE coast show Coastal transfer complete in following 2 frames and verbatim, saves the 80 north crew, but yeah, i'd take that early on and be happy for the northern crew.  

 

Sign here ___________Nut______________________

 

 

Yeah, the next frame has it is off the coast of the Delmarva. 540 line is still to our south though. Good position to be in for all of PA. Until the Happy Hour Run. :-)

[pasnownut]

6 minutes ago, paweather said:

Yeah, the next frame has it is off the coast of the Delmarva. 540 line is still to our south though. Good position to be in for all of PA. Until the Happy Hour Run. :-)

you missed this one.  Yes its only 1 frame that we lose thermals, as 850s crash in the next, but SE crew would turn/taint for sure.  Regardless, we are parsing over an Op run in wayoutthereland, so not really worried, as we'll have 20 more looks to pick from in the next 10 days, but like i said, its close enough for me to push SOME house money in.

[paweather]

3 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

you missed this one.  Yes its only 1 frame that we lose thermals, as 850s crash in the next, but SE crew would turn/taint for sure.  Regardless, we are parsing over an Op run in wayoutthereland, so not really worried, as we'll have 20 more looks to pick from in the next 10 days, but like i said, its close enough for me to push SOME house money in.

Yep and agreed, house money time since we really have nothing else to look at on these model runs might as well do it. 

[pasnownut]

2 minutes ago, paweather said:

Yep and agreed, house money time since we really have nothing else to look at on these model runs might as well do it. 

another positive takeaway is that we are seeing subtle shifts in a favorable direction for next week. Thats something we'll all agree on.....cept Tamaqua boy :). 

[pasnownut]

last snippet for the day (until things look legit, i'm not "wasting" time like i used to sniffin out snow).  Too much grief and agony.  Getting too old for that.

On that note, home team ensemble runs today are not hard on the eyes, and much more workable than we've seen for some time.  PNA is ok, broad trough central and east.  Not saying we score, but we may be close enough to put something on the board(s).  Have a good one gang.

 

[daxx]

We all really need to let last Winter go.  I'm not saying forget it, because it will happen again. I think we should not take every model run to heart as well this year. I know its hard not to get sucked into evey model run good or bad, but not doing that is a lot easier on the mind and soul.  My thinking is we will have more opportunities this year. Will it be a blockbuster winter? I don't think so, but there is always the possibility.  It only takes one big event to change everything. I'm going with 22-32 for MDT.  I hope everyone is doing well. 

[Itstrainingtime]

33 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

last snippet for the day (until things look legit, i'm not "wasting" time like i used to sniffin out snow).  Too much grief and agony.  Getting too old for that.

On that note, home team ensemble runs today are not hard on the eyes, and much more workable than we've seen for some time.  PNA is ok, broad trough central and east.  Not saying we score, but we may be close enough to put something on the board(s).  Have a good one gang.

 

A lot of the fun can be the chase itself, especially with the right attitude and understanding going in. Patience, and chances...

24 minutes ago, daxx said:

We all really need to let last Winter go.  I'm not saying forget it, because it will happen again. I think we should not take every model run to heart as well this year. I know its hard not to get sucked into evey model run good or bad, but not doing that is a lot easier on the mind and soul.  My thinking is we will have more opportunities this year. Will it be a blockbuster winter? I don't think so, but there is always the possibility.  It only takes one big event to change everything. I'm going with 22-32 for MDT.  I hope everyone is doing well. 

Man, I lit up when I saw that you posted. Welcome back my friend! I like your thought and call.