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December Discobs 2020


George BM
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@losetoa6 Perhaps a preview for Friday?  Low level cold taking longer to scour out here.  Currently 31 and guidance had me in the mid to upper 30s by now.  I am sure we’ll get into the upper 40s tonight before the front drops through the area overnight but models tend to want to rush the 2m warming in these setups.

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12z GFS trended a touch colder at the surface.  A lot of the higher res guidance is dropping dew points ahead of precip into the upper 20s and lower 30s along the 81 corridor.

Looks like western areas from west of Hagerstown to Cumberland may be in for a descent ice event.  Fairly good agreement on 0.25" - 0.5" falling as zr there for New Years Day.  Looks like winter storm watches will be needed there later today.

May get an advisory level event across central MD, into northern VA, and then west of the Blue Ridge to around Harrisonburg.

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LWX has watches up for the extreme western zones.

Quote

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
143 PM EST Wed Dec 30 2020

MDZ001-501-WVZ503-311000-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0004.210101T1200Z-210102T0600Z/
Garrett-Extreme Western Allegany-Western Mineral-
143 PM EST Wed Dec 30 2020

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Significant icing possible. Total ice accumulations of
  up to one quarter of an inch possible.

* WHERE...In Maryland, Garrett and Extreme Western Allegany
  Counties. In West Virginia, Western Mineral County.

* WHEN...From Friday morning through late Friday night.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the
  ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

$$

 

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4 hours ago, thunderman said:

12z GFS trended a touch colder at the surface.  A lot of the higher res guidance is dropping dew points ahead of precip into the upper 20s and lower 30s along the 81 corridor.

Looks like western areas from west of Hagerstown to Cumberland may be in for a descent ice event.  Fairly good agreement on 0.25" - 0.5" falling as zr there for New Years Day.  Looks like winter storm watches will be needed there later today.

May get an advisory level event across central MD, into northern VA, and then west of the Blue Ridge to around Harrisonburg.

Hope the cold trend continues!! 

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
404 AM EST Thu Dec 31 2020

MDZ502-VAZ507-508-WVZ501-502-504-311715-
/O.EXA.KLWX.WS.A.0004.210101T1200Z-210102T0600Z/
Central and Eastern Allegany-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-
Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Western Grant-Eastern Grant-
Eastern Mineral-
404 AM EST Thu Dec 31 2020

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Significant icing possible. Total ice accumulations
  around one-quarter of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Central and eastern Allegany County in Maryland, eastern
  Mineral County as well as western and eastern Grant County in
  West Virginia, and the northern and central Blue Ridge Mountains
  in Virginia.

* WHEN...From Friday morning through late Friday night. The best
  chance for freezing rain will be Friday morning through Friday
  afternoon for the Blue Ridge Mountains, and Friday afternoon
  through Friday evening for the rest of the area.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are possible due to the
  ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions
  could impact the morning or evening commute.
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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
404 AM EST Thu Dec 31 2020

MDZ001-501-WVZ503-311715-
/O.CON.KLWX.WS.A.0004.210101T1200Z-210102T0600Z/
Garrett-Extreme Western Allegany-Western Mineral-
404 AM EST Thu Dec 31 2020

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Significant icing possible. Total ice accumulations
  around one-quarter of an inch possible.

* WHERE...In Maryland, Garrett and Extreme Western Allegany
  Counties. In West Virginia, Western Mineral County.

* WHEN...From Friday morning through late Friday night. The best
  chance for freezing rain will be Friday afternoon and evening.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are possible due to the
  ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.
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14 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

3k coming in colder for early Friday no surprise.  Just one problem....no precip :lol:

Keeps getting delayed ...maybe some freezing drizzle early morning my guess . @CAPEs high of 50 is in real trouble though. 30s till at least midnight Saturday. 

Yeah it looks like the 'warmth' is a bit delayed from previous forecasts, probably after we dry slot. Just a bit of a disparity between the NAMs and the GFS though- GFS has 50s and even 60s(here) on Sat, NAM never gets the warmer air even to my yard, and keeps the area in the 40s.

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34 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Not really a medium or long range anymore. Euro with a nice jump south with Sunday's frozen potential.  It has been furthest north for several runs with just cold rain but a significant enough shift that N.Md sees a period of mix precip .CMC is similar...but Gfs has shifted the opposite direction from many previous runs.  

 

We just can't know :lol:

The trend is your friend on the EPS. :weenie:

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50 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Not really a medium or long range anymore. Euro with a nice jump south with Sunday's frozen potential.  It has been furthest north for several runs with just cold rain but a significant enough shift that N.Md sees a period of mix precip .CMC is similar...but Gfs has shifted the opposite direction from many previous runs.  

 

We just can't know :lol:

Ggem suggests some follow up energy rotating through next Tuesday. Para GFS hints at it also. Maybe something to watch also.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1231 PM EST Thu Dec 31 2020

MDZ001-501-502-WVZ501>504-011100-
/O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0004.210101T1200Z-210102T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0006.210101T1500Z-210102T0600Z/
Garrett-Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany-
Western Grant-Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-
1231 PM EST Thu Dec 31 2020

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Significant icing expected. Total ice accumulations of up
  to one third of an inch, with the highest amounts in the higher
  elevations. A small snow or sleet accumulation is also possible
  at the onset.

* WHERE...Portions of western Maryland and eastern West Virginia.

* WHEN...From 10 AM Friday to 1 AM EST Saturday. Freezing rain,
  possibly mixed with snow and sleet at the start, will move into
  the area Friday midday and then gradually change to rain Friday
  afternoon and evening.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the
  ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions
  could impact the evening commute.
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RGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1231 PM EST Thu Dec 31 2020

VAZ507-508-011100-
/O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0004.210101T1200Z-210102T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0006.210101T1200Z-210102T0300Z/
Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge-
1231 PM EST Thu Dec 31 2020

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Significant icing expected. Total ice accumulations of up
  to one third of an inch, with the highest amounts in the higher
  elevations.

* WHERE...Northern Virginia Blue Ridge and Central Virginia Blue
  Ridge.

* WHEN...From 7 AM to 10 PM EST Friday. Freezing rain will move
  into the area Friday morning and then gradually change to rain
  Friday afternoon and evening.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the
  ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions
  could impact the evening commute.
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