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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2020/2021 OBS Thread


Rtd208
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8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

It is a flat ridge, but its there. It was supposed to be raging with the Nina. But we luckily have had the -NAM state working for us to counter it. If the ridge was non-existent we would be congratulating NC/SC. But as we've seen countless times recently, there is a battle going on between the -NAO and that SER reflection. And subsequently every system has come N. I personally don't buy the squashed look on the Euro. Not suggesting every wave comes N and flush hits us....but I am anxious to see the battle that ensues in the atmosphere over the next 10 days between those features I mentioned. 

20210208_140152.png

Shhhh let the mid atlantic weenies think they are sitting pretty again :lol: I agree with you, I'm more concerned about the ridge flexing bringing us mix/rain chances over suppression. This is way different from the suppressed/sheared out pattern of January. 

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45 minutes ago, RedSky said:

12z ECM for this weeks 4 waves, and half of SEPA total is Sunday mix 

The Hopewell dry slot strikes back lol

12zecmfeb82021.png

What an evil, evil model. First the aforementioned No Hope-well dry slot, and second it is jackpotting VA/DC in the mid range again. Wonder how it'll play out for them :whistle:

 

I still like 3-6" region wide Wednesday night. 

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43 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Shhhh let the mid atlantic weenies think they are sitting pretty again :lol: I agree with you, I'm more concerned about the ridge flexing bringing us mix/rain chances over suppression. This is way different from the suppressed/sheared out pattern of January. 

Don't taunt....might get a flag thrown.

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51 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

It is a flat ridge, but its there. It was supposed to be raging with the Nina. But we luckily have had the -NAM state working for us to counter it. If the ridge was non-existent we would be congratulating NC/SC. But as we've seen countless times recently, there is a battle going on between the -NAO and that SER reflection. And subsequently every system has come N. I personally don't buy the squashed look on the Euro. Not suggesting every wave comes N and flush hits us....but I am anxious to see the battle that ensues in the atmosphere over the next 10 days between those features I mentioned. 

 

This  -NAO and that SER reflection is a bit like standing on one foot. Not super stable but it can still stay like that for awhile np at least until something pushes it over. The forecast looks snowy. I wonder why the Euro is having problems with this.

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1 hour ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

Can someone enlighten me with the 16-19th time frame? Our DTN Weather Sentry is screaming SECS. 

This is the period after the pesky ULL finally moves off towards 50/50 region. The issue is lack of a pna ridge so the the trough axis isn’t great. Looks messy at this range but far out so well see. Models differ on handling of the ULL 

746FE035-BBDE-4F03-989F-B637BC84FAB5.png

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Is 2/14/06 still showing up in the cips analogs for this weekend?  Would be crazy to see another massive sleet storm 15 years later. The set up looks very icy and CAD will probably be severely underforecasted. Even if the low amplifies to our sw, I still think we'd see significant icing before tapering to light rain. 

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11 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

The day's not over yet. We may get blessed by a couple lazy flakes in the next hour or so...30F/cloudy.

lf.jpg

Under those returns and not a flake. 12z GFS spit out the most grotesque conceivable two week run of cold rain even Dr. Evil couldn't have done it any better. 

 

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1 minute ago, RedSky said:

Under those returns and not a flake. 12z GFS spit out the most grotesque conceivable two week run of cold rain even Dr. Evil couldn't have done it any better. 

 

It's shrinking/drying up as well.

Just seen Allentown only received 1.1" and Bushkill 1.4".

Overall just feel like we're going to get screwed w/all these little waves...underperformers. Only positive we'll have refreshers but nothing big and w/the cold air in place the snow isn't going anywhere...

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6 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

It's shrinking/drying up as well.

Just seen Allentown only received 1.1" and Bushkill 1.4".

Overall just feel like we're going to get screwed w/all these little waves...underperformers. Only positive we'll have refreshers but nothing big and w/the cold air in place the snow isn't going anywhere...

Even un-failable accu weather said snow on snow on snow this week right? What will family member say

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4 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Even un-failable accu weather said snow on snow on snow this week right? What will family member say

I already have snow on snow on snow. I had snow on the ground (small pile) from Dec 16th then we had 2 more recent snows. So I may end up w/ snow on snow on snow on snow on snow on snow by Sunday w/all these waves...

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I count 5 possible events in the next 10 days. Obviously we don't bat 1.000, but even if we bat .500 it'll be a great stretch. Plus the pattern doesn't look to be breaking down anytime soon so the threat train may continue into the end of the month into March. I really can't find anything to bitch about, we are pretty much at normal snowfall on the year and it's active AF. We won't miss every single one.

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23 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Even un-failable accu weather said snow on snow on snow this week right? What will family member say

I just checked AccuWeather for my location (Gap, Eastern Lancaster County) and it has doubled down on 6-10" here (61% probability).  That seems...optimistic.

Meanwhile, temperature has spiked to 37 here today.

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29 minutes ago, RedSky said:

I was 10F twelve hours ago, currently 29F with sleet and nary a flake. Almost an impossible feat.

 

Actually a simple feat...I remember a storm where we started at 3 degrees and 2 hours later it was 25 and IP and 1 hour later 27 and ZR....it of course has nothing to do with surface temps - there are no roadblocks to warmth above the surface.  One of my favorite memories was in January 1994 when I was in King of Prussia and my thermometer read 24 degrees with heavy rain - the ZR accumulated as quick as I could chop it off my car - which at the time had those pop up lights.

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3 minutes ago, Mshaffer526 said:

I just checked AccuWeather for my location (Gap, Eastern Lancaster County) and it has doubled down on 6-10" here (61% probability).  That seems...optimistic.

Meanwhile, temperature has spiked to 37 here today.

You are in a slightly better spot being outside this weeks no-Hopewell SEPA dry slot good luck bro

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3 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

Actually a simple feat...I remember a storm where we started at 3 degrees and 2 hours later it was 25 and IP and 1 hour later 27 and ZR....it of course has nothing to do with surface temps - there are no roadblocks to warmth above the surface.  One of my favorite memories was in January 1994 when I was in King of Prussia and my thermometer read 24 degrees with heavy rain - the ZR accumulated as quick as I could chop it off my car - which at the time had those pop up lights.

I had 16F and rain in Horsham in 1994 I know it happens, I was expecting up to 1" snow today essentially WAA stuff before the warm air punched in. 

And now the sleet has changed to big puffy marshmallows lol

 

 

 

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