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Monday, November 30, 2020 Heavy Rain, Strong Winds, and Severe Convection


weatherwiz
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3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Ekster and I were noting that too. 

Warm front moving fast too. FIT jumped 10 in the last hour.

The warm front progression for a SLP track just west of us is pretty impressive IMO. I wonder if the rapid pressure drop is helping to accelerate the warm front?

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Starting to pick up here on the NH seacoast. Gusting to 45 on Isle of Shoals. I've had some decent events since moving here last December but nothing that's wowed me. Only thing between me and the ocean is "The Wall" so I figured I'd see some higher winds by now. Maybe this evening will impress.

Speaking of wind events I still hold Oct 2017 as the strongest I've witnessed around here but it seldom gets talked about which is weird considering Maine and NH had just about as many outages as the 2008 ice storm....but if I remember correctly areas closer to Boston didn't get hit nearly as bad. I'm guessing we hit 75-80mph where I lived in Methuen at the time but unfortunately LWM airport lost power and stopped transmitting. Never seen 5 utility poles snapped like twigs from any other wind event in the Merrimack valley. 

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Just now, ice1972 said:

Ya we were out for a couple hours.......back on now.....high voltage lines blew off damaged T-bar onto the light couple houses up......easy fix but that guy in the bucket was blowing all over the place and getting pelted.......

I'm surprised they have people out right now. Power outages actually down to below 30K now.

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Kind of cool seeing how well modeled this "lull" in strong wind gusts has been. The hi-res guidance shows it, the 925 LLJ forecasts show a brief reorganization. Sure enough the gusts aren't quite as extreme as the last couple of hours. But the guidance all insists that things start going to town again in another hour or two.

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Kind of cool seeing how well modeled this "lull" in strong wind gusts has been. The hi-res guidance shows it, the 925 LLJ forecasts show a brief reorganization. Sure enough the gusts aren't quite as extreme as the last couple of hours. But the guidance all insists that things start going to town again in another hour or two.

Yeah even the latest HRRR shows another burst of winds like 23z-01z down this way

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12 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Kind of cool seeing how well modeled this "lull" in strong wind gusts has been. The hi-res guidance shows it, the 925 LLJ forecasts show a brief reorganization. Sure enough the gusts aren't quite as extreme as the last couple of hours. But the guidance all insists that things start going to town again in another hour or two.

Exactly what happened here. Was ripping 50-55 mph gusts mid afternoon. Knocked half the town out of power. Then 2 hours of meh. Now it’s ramping up again . Looks like CT goes wild between about 6-9

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1 hour ago, KoalaBeer said:

Starting to pick up here on the NH seacoast. Gusting to 45 on Isle of Shoals. I've had some decent events since moving here last December but nothing that's wowed me. Only thing between me and the ocean is "The Wall" so I figured I'd see some higher winds by now. Maybe this evening will impress.

Speaking of wind events I still hold Oct 2017 as the strongest I've witnessed around here but it seldom gets talked about which is weird considering Maine and NH had just about as many outages as the 2008 ice storm....but if I remember correctly areas closer to Boston didn't get hit nearly as bad. I'm guessing we hit 75-80mph where I lived in Methuen at the time but unfortunately LWM airport lost power and stopped transmitting. Never seen 5 utility poles snapped like twigs from any other wind event in the Merrimack valley. 

That October 2017 gale actually had thousands more CMP customers in the dark than peak 1998 (2008 was a Mass event), but duration of outages and damage to infrastructure was many times greater in the ice storm.

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1 minute ago, tamarack said:

That October 2017 gale actually had thousands more CMP customers in the dark than peak 1998 (2008 was a Mass event), but duration of outages and damage to infrastructure was many times greater in the ice storm.

I really wish we had done more after-action on that event. I know our forecasts could've been better leading into the event (ramped up late on Saturday or early Sunday IIRC) and I'm not sure how well it was communicated once we starting honking.

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Just now, OceanStWx said:

I really wish we had done more after-action on that event. I know our forecasts could've been better leading into the event (ramped up late on Saturday or early Sunday IIRC) and I'm not sure how well it was communicated once we starting honking.

That storm had a 15-30 minute blast (different times at different locales) that caused almost all the damage, even though the (lesser) wind and rain lasted many times longer.  I can't recall another synoptic event that had such a short and intense peak. 

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