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November 30-December 2 *Potential* Winter Storm


Hoosier
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Very interesting article on the Nov 1950 storm, my dad said we got 3ft in our home town of Nelsonville, in NW Athens Co Ohio, this  one had wicked artic air to work with and 100MPH winds blowing in from the Atlantic.  Buffalo had mid 50's with Tstorms and the OV was in single digits!: https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Great-Appalachian-Storm-Thanksgiving-Week-1950 

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56 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I did look at it a bit, and yes, it would not be your classic colder LES event.  The thermodynamics are mediocre, but the duration and at least potential for a very long fetch could still result in some pretty decent amounts somewhere imo.  And likely to spread well inland given the robust low level flow.

Can maybe see it on Kutchera ratio.  Nice stripe of low ratio cement off the lake on this mornings GFS.

ratioku.us_mw.png

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2 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

Can maybe see it on Kutchera ratio.  Nice stripe of low ratio cement off the lake on this mornings GFS.

ratioku.us_mw.png

If that fetch plays out, you'll get in on the good stuff. It's been a few years since I've seen streamers all the way to CVG. I remember some LES from Lake Michigan hitting DAY a couple of years ago.

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2 hours ago, RobertSul said:

Isn’t this the typical windshield wiper trend? Mid-range starts trending East, then pulls back within 48-72 hours? 

If there is a couple things I am feeling good about right now, it is that I am not in the bullseye this far out and that I am sitting west of where the bullseye is. That being said, I would like for the east trend to at least stop moving further east in the next few runs.

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25 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

Latest GFS clown map. Northern Ohio the bullseye again. At least the trend to continue east has stopped. Nice hit for most of the state (and SE MI). 

snku_acc.us_mw.thumb.png.677791b01a7319629e18835ef6d368ef.png

I'd probably start getting excited if I were in Ohio.  Not a done deal but generally honing in on an outcome.

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I think somebody in/around northwest IN may make a run toward at least transient blizzard conditions with the LES with that enhanced boundary layer mixing downwind of the lake.  Not sure on whether that can be achieved with the synoptic storm.  My initial thought is no for the most part, unless it bombs out more, but it looks windy regardless. 

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