December 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[Will - Rutgers]

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Remember the squall we had last year in mid December? That was crazy.

did we have another the year before, too.

both events were basically the hardest snows i ever saw in my life or at least the most violent.  visibility could be counted in single digit feet.  the irony was, because snow was coming, pretty much everyone in the office started getting in their cars to go home like 10 minutes before game time.  i failed to convince them that was a bad idea.

[snowman19]

14 hours ago, qg_omega said:

It’s just a model, wouldn’t put much stock in it.  It’s very strong and there are no imminent signs of weakening

The CFS is showing nothing of the sort and it has done a much better job with the Niña event since the summer, it sniffed this event out very well, it has a January peak of solidly strong: 

[Cfa]

1 hour ago, JoshSnow said:

That’s too much snow give me a few inches and let it melt and than let it snow again in a few days another few inches. Big blizzards don’t intrigue me! I like small not impactful snows that make the scenery look cheerful. Also give me a blizzard in April and let it all melt in two days

I feel the same way. Unless it’s a blizzard with thundersnow, I’ll take that any day of the week between 1/1 and 2/15, after that I don’t want snow at all, not even a flurry.

But snow squalls are my favorite, 12/24/13 in Central Suffolk is my all-time favorite snowstorm, ~5 inches fell in a span of 45 minutes, and it was fluffy, none of that heavy wet crap.

[Allsnow]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Following several says of slightly cooler than average temperatures, we will rebound back to 50s. Notice how the day 10 guidance was biased too cold again. So a continuation of the ridge over the area verifying stronger than forecast. 

KNYC   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE  12/07/2020  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 MON  07| TUE 08| WED 09| THU 10| FRI 11| SAT 12| SUN 13| MON 14 CLIMO
 X/N  41| 30  41| 33  45| 38  49| 39  49| 44  56| 49  54| 38  42 31 44

 

New run

Old run

 

The eps was breaking off a piece of the energy out west to try and keep us cool this weekend. It corrected earlier last week.

[snowman19]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The eps was breaking off a piece of the energy out west to try and keep us cool this weekend. It corrected earlier last week.

Good call by you and Bluewave last week of the eventual correction to much warmer for this weekend. Looks like 50’s and rain now

[MJO812]

Snow showers for the area on all the models. Better  than nothing I guess.

[jm1220]

4 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

28F here. A snow lover in Virginia is happy this morning

Shame. This could’ve been a big snow event here with a little better interaction within the trough and some more space from the last storm. 

[Allsnow]

Something to look at going forward is how the PV will start to weaken after mid month. The mjo is also to forecast to die off in 5. If we can get the Pv to control the pattern things could become more favorable end of December into January 

 

[White Gorilla]

32 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Something to look at going forward is how the PV will start to weaken after mid month. The mjo is also to forecast to die off in 5. If we can get the Pv to control the pattern things could become more favorable end of December into January 

 

Too often though models correct warmer as we approach a forecasted cold period.  We shall see.  The IO warmth has been a big player in the MJO.  

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Warmer than normal DEC here... i understand...  Still, something not fitting all the negatives on snow.  I could be wrong but this not last winter.  Seems to me modeling is hanging on to weak blocking in the N Atlantic for many days, and I see a ridge in AK for awhile (7 more days) and an undercutting Pac Jet.  This may provide for more opportunities beyond the 16th?  I see the MJO indicies are trending weaker with time which may be a climo bias?   I know the modeled MJO phase is not favorable for us, but I am interested in this pattern...  I just dont see cold air ripping off to the east in southern Canada as easily in the GEFS dailies through D16 (laying in wait for something in the southern stream?).  Again a GEFS blocking bias?  And yes, it's nice to have cold air in place PRIOR to a precip event. 

Critical science is needed here to void my snow interest beyond the 16th.  Have at it. 

fwiw...i checked CP first measurable snow date in xmacis... looks like Dec 7 (today) over the entire CP climate history.  Monitoring Wednesday's 12z/7 3K  NAM forenoon snow shower risk (probably melt on contact?, but of minor interest). Lapse rates don't look all that interesting... sort of surprised by the modeling of snow showers down to NYC at ~54 hrs. 

Yeah, I would favor above normal. If we can keep Canada cold (which it looks like) we should be okay going forward. 
 

This isn’t last winter where the Pv strengthened and mjo went crazy at the end of December. 

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Too often though models correct warmer as we approach a forecasted cold period.  We shall see.  The IO warmth has been a big player in the MJO.  

I didn’t really say anything about cold in my post lol. I agree, lately it has been the theme. But I do think the models did a good job calling  for this week to be cold. Its just going to be dry so no snow means nobody will care. 

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I didn’t really say anything about cold in my post lol. I agree, lately it has been the theme. But I do think the models did a good job calling  for this week to be cold. Its just going to be dry so no snow means nobody will care. 

Cold yes but barely below average and we'll be back above by Thursday 

[rossi]

Didn’t DT indicate there are good signs ahead last night?

[Allsnow]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Cold yes but barely below average and we'll be back above by Thursday 

Which was forecasted I believe from early last week. It was never supposed to be super below normal. The warmth was expected by the weekend. I believe I even posted about it. 
 

The following week won’t be cold because we lost the -epo look 

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The CFS is showing nothing of the sort and it has done a much better job with the Niña event since the summer, it sniffed this event out very well, it has a January peak of solidly strong: 

Not according to the this. We peaked in October and will be moderate for the winter. 

[Allsnow]

This isn’t going to be last winter where the PV gained strength and the mjo went wild at the end of December. The vortex is going to stay in Canada which will keep them cold. All we would need is something to buckle the flow to get the cold here. 
 

This December is acting more like a niño then Niña. Perhaps we get a niño January/February instead then. Who knows 

[Stormlover74]

5 minutes ago, rossi said:

Didn’t DT indicate there are good signs ahead last night?

He says it's a backloaded winter once the la nina weakens

[MJO812]

14 minutes ago, rossi said:

Didn’t DT indicate there are good signs ahead last night?

Backloadee winter just like many people are calling 

[Allsnow]

 

[snowman19]

14 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Not according to the this. We peaked in October and will be moderate for the winter. 

Maybe, however, the CFS is showing a secondary strong peak in January, we’ll see, but it has been one of the most accurate models with this Niña event. The Euro was insisting on only a weak Niña and it was dead wrong, it was one of the last to fold 

[FPizz]

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

Their staff looks like they are 10 years old on their website.  Man, I guess I'm getting old.  

[Allsnow]

10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Maybe, however, the CFS is showing a secondary strong peak in January, we’ll see, but it has been one of the most accurate models with this Niña event. The Euro was insisting on only a weak Niña and it was dead wrong, it was one of the last to fold 

That’s a accurate chart of what’s going on currently. As of now no secondary peak is imminent. The eastern pac has actually warmed over the last few weeks. 

[snowman19]

9 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

That’s a accurate chart of what’s going on currently. As of now no secondary peak is imminent. The eastern pac has actually warmed over the last few weeks. 

Which is concerning IMO (that the eastern 1.2 and 3 ENSO regions are warming), it’s moving west and it’s becoming more of a Modoki, regions 3.4 and 4 centered event as we go into winter, which is what a few models suggested would happen 

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

 

Doubtful in Dec for NYC. Frankly, you begin running out of days to make that happen.

We are already way colder than 2015. You ride that out this week you get to mid month.

At which point you would need 2 weeks of unprecedented Nino warmth to get there. 

you would need to get above 43.7F for the average to notch past 1984 for a number 3 slot

 

 

 

 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

19 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Doubtful in Dec for NYC. Frankly, you begin running out of days to make that happen.

We are already way colder than 2015. You ride that out this week you get to mid month.

At which point you would need 2 weeks of unprecedented Nino warmth to get there. 

you would need to get above 43.7F for the average to notch past 1984 for a number 3 slot

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bamwx focuses on Indiana and the Midwest. It will likely be warmer there relative to normal than it is in the New York City area.

[Allsnow]

Light snow for nyc Wednesday morning. 

[CIK62]

If you are relying on the EURO for this twerp of a snow event, remember the LR EURO feels  that the winter is Over for the entire US.      It is AN through the whole winter and unhindered by any Arctic intrusions, which of course it would not indicate in  this type of forecast anyway.         Probably  months with 20-25 Normal to AN number of days and the remainder accidental cold days.      

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

If you are relying on the EURO for this twerp of a snow event, remember the LR EURO feels  that the winter is Over for the entire US.      It is AN through the whole winter and unhindered by any Arctic intrusions, which of course it would not indicate in  this type of forecast anyway.         Probably  months with 20-25 Normal to AN number of days and the remainder accidental cold days.      

This is a absolutely ridiculous post...did you mean to post this? 

[North and West]

1 minute ago, CIK62 said:

If you are relying on the EURO for this twerp of a snow event, remember the LR EURO feels  that the winter is Over for the entire US.      It is AN through the whole winter and unhindered by any Arctic intrusions, which of course it would not indicate in  this type of forecast anyway.         Probably  months with 20-25 Normal to AN number of days and the remainder accidental cold days.      

I feel like our running theme the past few years is who can call out Winter's Over the quickest. I feel like someone just said we're running out of days in December... it's December 7th. Enjoy the journey. 

[the_other_guy]

1 minute ago, North and West said:

I feel like our running theme the past few years is who can call out Winter's Over the quickest. I feel like someone just said we're running out of days in December... it's December 7th. Enjoy the journey. 

I agree with you 100%.

I just want to clarify what I said. 

 

You are going to approach the middle of December with a below normal departure. You would need unprecedented warmth in 15 days to get December into the top three warmest in New York City. I’m not rushing anything... I’m just saying that is a stretch even in the 2010s.