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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


yoda
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Regardless of the post-frontal stuff (which I find it hard to get excited about -- post-frontal setups rarely produce much), those soundings and the position of the cold pool aloft look somewhat favorable for snow showers on Christmas Day proper. Very cold temps aloft. Might be enough weak surface-based instability to kick off some popcorn snow showers ahead of the mid-level vort.

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Just now, howrdcounty snow said:

what hr or hrs??

Its ten days away.. so its complete fantasy... but per the upper air pattern at day 7.. and the energy rolling in the west coast on day 5.. I would say that there is definitely potential.. lets see what the ensembles show..

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2 minutes ago, howrdcounty snow said:

I can read a map to a certain point but appreciate most others input on subtles

If you are new you should check this out.  It is super helpful!
 

I recommend reading through the thread above and then going to tropical tidbits and filtering for Northern Hemisphere as the region and choose 500 MB height anomaly for the plots.. then let us know which one of @psuhoffman looks the GFS is showing in the long range..

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8 minutes ago, 40westwx said:

If you are new you should check this out.  It is super helpful!
 

 

yes am familiar,iar with this info, have been around a while and have partly read the famous northeast snowstorm book by the 2 big weather experts, Paul kocin and the other phd in meteorology, plus have lived thru some biggies like blizzard of 66, 79,88, and some big misses like 66 was supposed to be but wasn't. etc. Thanks for your effort. I was fortunate to sit beside mr kocin at one of the amax meetings at BWI several years ago, and talked to ustedtobe at same conference. His education in physics was very remarkable.

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3 minutes ago, howrdcounty snow said:

yes am familiar,iar with this info, have been around a while and have partly read the famous northeast snowstorm book by the 2 big weather experts, Paul kocin and the other phd in meteorology, plus have lived thru some biggies like blizzard of 66, 79,88, and some big misses like 66 was supposed to be but wasn't. etc. Thanks for your effort. I was fortunate to sit beside mr kocin at one of the amax meetings at BWI several years ago, and talked to ustedtobe at same conference. His education in physics was very remarkable.

I would have liked to have been at that meeting.. but seriously the GFS is showing some text book stuff i the long range... today might be a really fun day around here!

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1 hour ago, csnavywx said:

Regardless of the post-frontal stuff (which I find it hard to get excited about -- post-frontal setups rarely produce much), those soundings and the position of the cold pool aloft look somewhat favorable for snow showers on Christmas Day proper. Very cold temps aloft. Might be enough weak surface-based instability to kick off some popcorn snow showers ahead of the mid-level vort.

Yeah, I think this might be the better chance for Xmas flakes.  Hard to give the post-frontal snow a ton of credence when the GFS is on an island at D4...

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The consistency and the depth portrayed regarding the - AO and the - NAO for the rest of this month and the first week of January are really stunning. 

Added to this is the ongoing warming up top and you have to really wonder what we may achieve at the lowest point of the - AO phase. 

This is pretty crazy looking.

 

EEA5E485-D68A-4F39-B06F-00947D36337C.png

 

 

Image

 

Image

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7 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

If it obliterates my healthy snowpack only to replace it with a fraction that’s not exactly a win. I’d rather simply avoid the 12 hour torch and keep my current snow lol. But for those not with snow OTG I can see the excitement. 

I saw the snowpack up your way on Saturday when I was in Hampstead.  Really nice start to the season up there. 

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