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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


yoda
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5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

12z deeper then 0z with energy at the base of the trough down in Alabama this run . Something to watch 

ecmwf-deterministic-conus-z500_anom-8854400.png

Is this in regards to having a trailing wave follow up on the arctic front? One singular GEFS model had that on the 12z guidance, but it seems like if that happens, it has some good upside (at least according to that one member)

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3 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Is this in regards to having a trailing wave follow up on the arctic front? One singular GEFS model had that on the 12z guidance, but it seems like if that happens, it has some good upside (at least according to that one member)

Well it’s more exciting than last Xmas.  We take!  Oh yes.  If nothing else we can roast chestnuts 

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6 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I’ll say..any deeper and will need more colors to choose from..if that was negative tilted...

We actually would probably prefer it to be more positively tilted that way the front of the trough could lower heights more. That’s if there was still enough energy rounding the base

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11 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

No shortage of chances for the foreseeable future. No real specific tracking threats at range yet...but keep those progged looks and we will connect soon enough.

Encouraging to see HL blocking continue AND even more encouraging is the sudden stream of STJ activity being forecast.

I think next one is the following time period after the Christmas front

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42 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

No shortage of chances for the foreseeable future. No real specific tracking threats at range yet...but keep those progged looks and we will connect soon enough.

Encouraging to see HL blocking continue AND even more encouraging is the sudden stream of STJ activity being forecast.

Replying to
There are some interesting analogs that spring up in extended range with low latitude winter storms in them. What more can be said for the Northeast; it's on.
 
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2 minutes ago, frd said:
Replying to
There are some interesting analogs that spring up in extended range with low latitude winter storms in them. What more can be said for the Northeast; it's on.
 

Was just reading that thread...thought this response regarding the stj was interesting.

 

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Damn .... game on ! :sled:

 

Nothing quite like seeing NASA's GEOS forecast a 240-hour lower-stratospheric heat flux event that would rank among the biggest ever observed for any time of year in MERRA2 reanalysis. https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/ann_data.html
 
 
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2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

No shortage of chances for the foreseeable future. No real specific tracking threats at range yet...but keep those progged looks and we will connect soon enough.

Encouraging to see HL blocking continue AND even more encouraging is the sudden stream of STJ activity being forecast.

How is all of this, especially the STJ, happening in a borderline strong Niña?

It all sounds way too good to be true, and something I’d expect from a Modoki Niño.

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10 minutes ago, frd said:

Damn .... game on ! :sled:

 

Nothing quite like seeing NASA's GEOS forecast a 240-hour lower-stratospheric heat flux event that would rank among the biggest ever observed for any time of year in MERRA2 reanalysis. https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/ann_data.html
 
 
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What is a heat flux event? Is this the same sudden stratospheric warming?

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Mount Holly's (new) quick take on late week.. they did say to stay tuned lol.

A cold front associated with the low will cross the area, ending the warmer temperatures and bringing a sudden return to Winter. Rains will likely change to snow and some accumulations are possible later Thu night and into Friday. Still a week away, so exact details will have to wait until we get closer, but this could affect travel during the upcoming holiday.

 

 

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