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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


yoda
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4 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Always need to keep in mind that in this forum, the WB snow / p-type maps are are specifically for feeding the weenies. Gotta make sure everyone eats. :lol:

Yeah I get it. I still think people get biased when they see 20" over their yards run after run, when in reality it is actually more like 10 verbatim, and then when they actually get 7..well you know.

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4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Yeah I get it. I still think people get biased when they see 20" over their yards run after run, when in reality it is actually more like 10 verbatim, and then when they actually get 7..well you know.

Yeah, those maps are great when there is no temperature concern. When there are major temperature concerns, those maps are almost worthless.

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Just now, osfan24 said:

Yeah, those maps are great when there is no temperature concern. When there are major temperature concerns, those maps are almost worthless.

Exactly....those snow maps verified just fine in PA and NY.  If you are on the fringe, take with a huge grain of sleet...i mean salt

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37 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I don't recall any snow amounts that high. The event was in and out in under 2 hours. It started with marginal temps, 33-34. Most of the snow here fell at 32 degrees, with massive aggregates. It piled up fast despite the temps. Yes the cold behind the front was impressive.

He's probably thinking of the event that followed the front a couple days later. Low pressure stayed a bit to the south producing 3-6 over the region. A few spots may have gotten 8. It happened on a Monday night into Tuesday morning. Extremely cold temps.

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Mount Holly: nothing to see here, but stay tuned, just in case!

The next surface low will be crossing east, with the center of the low likely remaining near the US/Canadian border. This is likely to result in a cold front approaching our region late next week. Another low may develop along the cold front, but even so, it appears that most of the precipitation with this event will come ahead of the front, solidly in the warm sector. Thus, it appears if we see any precipitation associated with this system, it will be mostly rain on Thursday. However, stay tuned to the latest forecast as at least one model shows QPF behind the strong cold front, which would be changing to snow.

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4 hours ago, CAPE said:

With a persistent vortex in/near the WPO domain, and a strong Asian-Pacific jet, it wont be easy to get super cold air in our source region. We probably need the AO to be significantly negative to mitigate that somewhat, and allow TPV lobes to break off and come south.

That vortex is keeping the central PAC ridge suppressed though. You’re right it’s preventing an epo ridge and cross polar flow but in runs that break that down the pac ridge pops and we end to with a trough in the west ridge east. I think I’ll take my chances with the WPO vortex and hope as Canada gets colder we can make die with N American domestic cold sources. 

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4 hours ago, yoda said:

Clouded the future is... but 06z GFS... strong in the Force  Farce it is ;)

 

FYP!! :D

But seriously, that would be quite nice if it happens!  At this point, I'll be glad to even have a nice, crisp Christmas rather than being in the 50s or raining or whatever, for a change.  At least a little fresh wintry feel even if there's not much snow.

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Seeing mention of anafront snows for next week. They rarely work out....most here know this. However, in my area NW of Philly we have had 2 anafront snows already this season. We almost never see it. Neither was anything to write home about. What's my point? There is a tendency already this winter for those anafront scenarios to work. If there was a year we could score on the backside of a front with a wave trailing, this is probably the one. 

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That vortex is keeping the central PAC ridge suppressed though. You’re right it’s preventing an epo ridge and cross polar flow but in runs that break that down the pac ridge pops and we end to with a trough in the west ridge east. I think I’ll take my chances with the WPO vortex and hope as Canada gets colder we can make die with N American domestic cold sources. 

Yeah if the AO cooperates we should be ok with cold that's 'good enough' as we move forward.

Interestingly, the extended GEFS has suggested the WPO/EPO go negative from time to time, but then it backs off. When it has had that look though, the NA is also pretty good, and the overall h5 pattern looks remarkably favorable. lol probably why it keeps losing it-  very unlikely to verify unless the Nina craps out.

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