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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


yoda
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1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

Maybe it's just wishcasting, but I have a hard time believing surface temps will be as warm as depicted. When have we ever really had surface temps in the mid 30's during a big snowstorm with a decent high to our north?

Depends on the track of the low and placement of the high..

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2 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Maybe it's just wishcasting, but I have a hard time believing surface temps will be as warm as depicted. When have we ever really had surface temps in the mid 30's during a big snowstorm with a decent high to our north?

I think surface temps are OK to start, but if the low track is too far west there will be mixing issues in the middle. 

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1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

Maybe it's just wishcasting, but I have a hard time believing surface temps will be as warm as depicted. When have we ever really had surface temps in the mid 30's during a big snowstorm with a decent high to our north?

It is mid-December and the airmass is marginal.  This doesn't usually work out well for the low-landers.

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34 minutes ago, PivotPoint said:

Could you post a map of what you’re seeing. I honestly do not see a marked difference  between the two runs. Certainly done see a 25-30 mile SE move. Thanks

What’s edging SE though? Temps at 925/850 are virtually identical. I don’t see this as an improvement 3 days out. It’s pretty consistent actually.

Again, you’re right rt15 on west is certainly the spot. I’ve felt that way as well. Unfortunately location for me is Arlington :(

Look at the 925 line in Montgomery County Md 2C to 0 C about a 30 mile shift SE between 0z and 6 Z EURO.   

8DBABB86-4257-4C51-9174-9269BD75EA51.png

05228844-6EEC-48D7-9E3E-51902BC3EAE6.png

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Just now, PhineasC said:

Getting near the time where we drop the charade and have to acknowledge the hard reality that this will not be a region-wide crowd pleaser and there will be a screwzone. Snow is a brutal sport. If you live on a barge in the Potomac in SE DC, you are getting a lot of rain. 

I think we have a decent feel for what happens at DCA and Winchester.  IAD we may not know until it happens.

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6 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Look at the 925 line in Montgomery County Md 2C to 0 C about a 30 mile shift SE between 0z and 6 Z EURO.   

8DBABB86-4257-4C51-9174-9269BD75EA51.png

05228844-6EEC-48D7-9E3E-51902BC3EAE6.png

Yea, I kinda see it. And this might be too much parsing, but geeze I don’t think I would even call that a shift. I mean, the 0Z has colder temps to SW (albeit those look suspect, I agree). I dunno. Maybe it’s a tick colder. You’re right.

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8 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Getting near the time where we drop the charade and have to acknowledge the hard reality that this will not be a region-wide crowd pleaser and there will be a screwzone. Snow is a brutal sport. If you live on a barge in the Potomac in SE DC, you are getting a lot of rain. 

That’s the perfect way to put it. Charade is the right word. Some keeping acting like they don’t know how this plays out 15 out of 16 times. 
 

95 crew and even a bit west with this one are probably capped at 6”. Thinking more like 2-4 zone but maybe it pops. 
 

Everyone should just head to Leesburg that day. Get some food. Relax. If you’re able

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21 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Anyone willing to answer. Does a stronger low mean more flooding of the mid levels with warmer air above the surface or will this storm just be strictly dependent on the placement of the low and its eventual track?

It depends on low placement / track. Typically speaking... a strong SLP doesn’t bode as well for the coast as it does for the interior. Warm air intrusion can be a big concern. As is my concern with this storm along and east of 95. Stronger typically means a closer track to the coast. 
 

There’s likely going to be a pretty big snow gradient unless this thing begins trending SE a bit. Snow to Rain E of BAL / DC... a few sloppy inches downtown...3-6” just outside the beltway, and 6-12+“ north of 70 and west of 270. Classic December setup. We get that 1040 HP to anchor in the right location however, and coasties get their boom.
 

Currently, the QPF jackpot is in northern MD / southern PA (1.5 - 2” of qpf looking at deterministic models) - along with the best lift. Need a decent jog SE for I-95 to get in on warning level snowfall unless you live in NJ and points N. 

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1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

:o

 

 

If Ellinwood is bullish out here it is on. I am even expecting some mixing out here at this point. The problem is the HP location. The models are wanting to take it a little too far east. Either way I am not gonna complain. Those of us out west look to be in the perfect spot for this one. 

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1 hour ago, 40westwx said:

you see that coma shaped area of below 0 to the south and west of DC.. I think the model picking up on the dynamics of the system.. it looks like thats where wind shifts around to the north and banding sets up.. 

I was thinking the same thing. I'm in FFX county just west of FFX City inside that comma zone.  We almost always do very well in these kinds of coastals.  The maps usually underestimate the frontogenesis dynamics.  

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