Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

December Medium/Long Range Discussion


yoda
 Share

Recommended Posts

This H5 look at hour 102 is absolutely classic. If it can close off slightly sooner and/or farther south, I think just about everyone in this forum will be very happy. The deformation zone would be pretty sweet verbatim. 
 

I think it’s pretty clear the 18z GFS that caused weenie suicides was just a blip; the GEFS suite being east was a red flag. What’s encouraging is seeing the vort pass through sooner, which prevented higher heights from building in the Atlantic. This is key for allowing the system to take an offshore track rather than move too close to the coast, as well as not completely torching the mid-layers. Hopefully the Euro and it’s ensembles can follow suit. 

32AD1C6B-8D74-49A8-9120-F215FBCB3613.png

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, PivotPoint said:

Lol. There will NOT be snow on the ground in dc for Xmas... at least not the remainder of weds storm. Perhaps another storm.

I think we should be careful in describing 6-12 “area wide”. I think the models are a trying to show some of the first red flags for 95 crew. By my count, there’s a considerable more amount of (almost) whiffs on the 18z eps. I think the amped NE hp and PNA might be coming back to earth a bit. I do not see us just “needed to 2 more degrees” for area wide 12”+. I think there’s a strong case that actually goes the other way actually.

We’ll see but my wag is 0Z euro holds course from 12z, with just a touch warmer at 850/925 and we all argue about the granularity of this revelation.
 

You can't rule anything out yet. Let's see what happens! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

All the models I've seen today make this a close play for our section of I95. Absolutely on the margins. Shift east 30 miles and we bullseye, shift west by the same amount and we'll be lucky to get a couple of sloppy inches. My gut says that's bad news at gametime - I think maybe 1 in 5 like this break our way? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • WxUSAF unpinned this topic

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...