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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


yoda
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1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Quick aside: regardless of its odds of actually happening, should we start a thread for Monday its more clear what is being talked about where?

maybe after the euro? i hate starting threads too early. we jinx ourselves far too much around here. 

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5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yup. We're getting into the Euro's wheelhouse. If it trends towards the GFS through Sunday, then man we might have some hope. FWIW, doesn't look like the GFS is warm through Christmas so this snow might stick around for a bit.

Agreed, key difference I see is Euro is much weaker with the PNA ridge, which hinders the SW from amplifying as much, causing it to cut west. Hopefully that feature trends toward the GFS. FWIW, 0z EPS looked a bit better than the operational. 

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GFS evolution is just textbook for a Mid-Atlantic snowstorm.  Gorgeous.  

Look at how it's trended with the cold push out WEST over the Plains.  Follow the 522 or 528 height lines in this gif.  That push keeps the primary low from amplifying to our west.  It can't get north, so it stays weak until it transfers energy to the coast.  THIS IS WHAT WE WANT.  This is nearly as important as having cold air in place east of the mountains.  

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh90_trend.thumb.gif.ec6364280078d03767c2d79fe5c61f2d.gif

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Just now, LeesburgWx said:

What is the upper limit on this storm if it does snow? 4-8"? 8-12"?

Appears to be a quick mover but the trends here are nice for sure.

Very doubtful to get a foot of snow out of this. 6-8” maybe but will need cold temps the whole time otherwise it will be more wet and heavy which will have lower totals

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2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GFS evolution is just textbook for a Mid-Atlantic snowstorm.  Gorgeous.  

Look at how it's trended with the cold push out WEST over the Plains.  Follow the 522 or 528 height lines in this gif.  That push keeps the primary low from amplifying to our west.  It can't get north, so it stays weak until it transfers energy to the coast.  THIS IS WHAT WE WANT.  This is nearly as important as having cold air in place east of the mountains.  

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh90_trend.thumb.gif.ec6364280078d03767c2d79fe5c61f2d.gif

That HP getting back over MN is nice

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1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

What is the upper limit on this storm if it does snow? 4-8"? 8-12"?

Appears to be a quick mover but the trends here are nice for sure.

HECS lol. Well, that's my wishcast. In reality, probably 8-12 if it cranks. Just moves too quickly. Need it to slow down and a bit earlier transfer would help. 

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