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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


yoda
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1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

This is already better than last year when seemingly nothing ever showed on models.

We’ve had three late November’s in a row where models looked good for early December. 2018 produced the huge SE storm that hit the wall at EZF. 2019 the rug got pulled out and it went to crap. We’ll see what happens this year. Like I said yesterday, I think we’ll have chances through mid December at least. 

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6 minutes ago, Quasievil said:

I thought we were kicking the 12/5 can down the street anyway... we're out on that one. Like Charlie Brown to the football, let's look at the 14th!

the models have had this 12/5 storm everywhere. From the Midwest to off the SC Coast...to nothing at all....to up the I95 corridor

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11 minutes ago, Ji said:

the 50/50 high pretty much killed our chance?

ecmwf_z500a_namer_5.png

The 50/50 high is forcing the low to the north, resulting in all rain or mostly rain at the coast. Only the interior and highlands get decent snowfall totals. Change that to a 50/50 low and it has nowhere to go but out to sea, which is a colder solution.

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14 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

The 50/50 high is forcing the low to the north, resulting in all rain or mostly rain at the coast. Only the interior and highlands get decent snowfall totals. Change that to a 50/50 low and it has nowhere to go but out to sea, which is a colder solution.

And then it’s congrats Richmond LOL. Let’s do a middle of the road.

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15 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Hard not to like the recent runs of the Eps moving into mid December . Today's run keeps a nice 50/50 through day 12 . An all around good look .

Haven’t seen it yet, but HM is happy about it on Twitter so I’ll take that. 

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Pretty remarkable to see this forecast, of course have to see it become reality for weather outcomes, however, the trends grow stronger for a weakening vortex and a eventual improving NAM state. Increasing odds of blocking as well. 

   

 

 

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