Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

December Medium/Long Range Discussion


yoda
 Share

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

The reality looks like the next two weeks will see us get two big rain storms.  None of the ensembles show anything to shout about to indicate an even minor winter event East of the mountains at this time.  EURO overnight was horrible taking the second low into the Midwest.

This was/is probably the most likely outcome, outside of the far western highlands. I have been focusing more on where the pattern ends up for mid month and beyond. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here is what the latest extended GEFS looks like for around Mid Dec. It would seem any attempt at a -EPO is transient.  Fwiw, beyond this period it brings back some ridging to the east coast, although it appears to have a weak -NAO as well.

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_80.png

The latest EPS weeklies have a more pronounced -NAO for mid month and beyond, but also more of an AK trough, and still some +heights in the SW, probably a neutral/weakly +PNA.

Neither outlook is necessarily suggestive of a pronounced cold period- probably generally average temps, but changeable. Verbatim the extended GEFS surface temps are quite warm overall mid month and beyond, but I tend to not pay attention to the surface as much as h5 on the LR tools.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Mount Holly with a mention of the late week 'potential' in their morning AFD.

Later next week... Broad troughing continues to dominate the eastern half of the US in a +PNA/-AO pattern. Indications are for another shortwave to rotate around the base of the trough towards next Thursday, which may yield another low pressure system tracking on either side of the East Coast late in the week. This could bring additional unsettled weather to the region, more likely towards Friday or Saturday. With a cooler air mass remaining in place, portions of the area may have a chance for some wintry outcomes late next week, but this remains to be seen.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, CAPE said:

Here is what the latest extended GEFS looks like for around Mid Dec. It would seem any attempt at a -EPO is transient.  Fwiw, beyond this period it brings back some ridging to the east coast, although it appears to have a weak -NAO as well.

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_80.png

The latest EPS weeklies have a more pronounced -NAO for mid month and beyond, but also more of an AK trough, and still some +heights in the SW, probably a neutral/weakly +PNA.

Neither outlook is necessarily suggestive of a pronounced cold period- probably generally average temps, but changeable. Verbatim the extended GEFS surface temps are quite warm overall mid month and beyond, but I tend to not pay attention to the surface as much as h5 on the LR tools.

Some of the Gefs members really amplify the mjo wave over the MC. It’s sort of a 50/50 split. But either way we will be getting some destructive tropical forcing mid Dec.  How much and how long likely determine where we go long term. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Some of the Gefs members really amplify the mjo wave over the MC. It’s sort of a 50/50 split. But either way we will be getting some destructive tropical forcing mid Dec.  How much and how long likely determine where we go long term. 

Yeah there is likely going to be some impact. I looked at the forecast yesterday and overall the guidance seemed to be moving the forcing into those phases, but at low amplitude/into COD.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, WxUSAF said:

CPC analogs for 12/8 almost identical to those 3 years ago for 12/8/17. That was our last notable December snowfall with 2-5” across the region. 

Wow it’s been that long.  I remember that event.  My wife and I walked around the neighborhood looking at decorations.  We can only hope..

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Wow it’s been that long.  I remember that event.  My wife and I walked around the neighborhood looking at decorations.  We can only hope..

Some interesting similarities to that winter. Also a Nina. Had the decent early December snow and the then hardly anything for a long while. Had a late winter SSW that got us an early March snow/ice storm. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Some interesting similarities to that winter. Also a Nina. Had the decent early December snow and the then hardly anything for a long while. Had a late winter SSW that got us an early March snow/ice storm. 

Remember it better now that you provided details.  The years run together.  I should have enjoyed that Dec storm more because it was the last snow I saw until March.  Hope we don’t suffer that fate.  But whatever...we will deal

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

Remember it better now that you provided details.  The years run together.  I should have enjoyed that Dec storm more because it was the last snow I saw until March.  Hope we don’t suffer that fate.  But whatever...we will deal

This one fell in between those 2. Made that winter great for me.

drift1.JPG.2bda7a22e21f18fa7018f31343d2d8a5.JPG

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is DT... he's woofing lol... Dec 8 to 15 time period (week 3) of the Euro weeklies from last night 

https://mobile.twitter.com/wxrisksecs1/status/1332539832367779846

DT again... different tweet about the big 4 teleconnections in support of the tweet I linked to above

https://mobile.twitter.com/wxrisksecs1/status/1332539592810115075

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • WxUSAF unpinned this topic

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...