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December 2020 Discussion


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Just now, alex said:

I know the mood is awful but let's face it... Nobody has any clue what the weather will be like in a few weeks let alone February and March. No model, no human. I respect all the Mets (and non mets) in here but let's face it, nobody ever gets long range right - at least no more right than chance alone would dictate. 2 weeks ago I was told I'd have feet of snow on the ground right now. Nope, didn't happen. I would love to see some data that shows a different conclusion but it seems that anything beyond a week is no more right than the New York Times horoscope page. 

Disagree

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5 minutes ago, alex said:

I know the mood is awful but let's face it... Nobody has any clue what the weather will be like in a few weeks let alone February and March. No model, no human. I respect all the Mets (and non mets) in here but let's face it, nobody ever gets long range right - at least no more right than chance alone would dictate. 2 weeks ago I was told I'd have feet of snow on the ground right now. Nope, didn't happen. I would love to see some data that shows a different conclusion but it seems that anything beyond a week is no more right than the New York Times horoscope page. 

I agree and always have 100%. Beyond a couple weeks it's as good as a coin flip.

 

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5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I swear some on here think they  live at 2K in Stowe

Grinch storm broke a lot of people. :lol:

Kind of ruined the vibe of the good start for many peeps...so I kind of get it. But that isn’t an excuse to start punting January. Especially when model guidance is all over the map...and these same models basically wanted to puke all over December too. Then they started getting optimistic, and then tried to pull the rug out again early in the month....

Remember all the panic of December not panning out after 12/5 disappointed some folks and they were complaining that the pig was coming back by 12/15 or 12/20? Lol...then we got a major snowstorm. 

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15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Grinch storm broke a lot of people. :lol:

Kind of ruined the vibe of the good start for many peeps...so I kind of get it. But that isn’t an excuse to start punting January. Especially when model guidance is all over the map...and these same models basically wanted to puke all over December too. Then they started getting optimistic, and then tried to pull the rug out again early in the month....

Remember all the panic of December not panning out after 12/5 disappointed some folks and they were complaining that the pig was coming back by 12/15 or 12/20? Lol...then we got a major snowstorm. 

Happens every year

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10 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

Happens every year

This was admittedly worse than most grinches. There was deep snow cover across a huge percentage of the posting subforum after a pretty big time storm on 12/16-17....those types of storms don’t grow on trees, especially first 3 weeks of December. 

Then the progged NAO blocking for late December started to look crappier in the days approaching the grinch storm, which caused us to lose 12/29 and then recently it looks worse in early January. So a lot of people are playing the “pattern pushed back so it’s bogus” card. Even if that isn’t really sound reasoning. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

This was admittedly worse than most grinches. There was deep snow cover across a huge percentage of the posting subforum after a pretty big time storm on 12/16-17....those types of storms don’t grow on trees, especially first 3 weeks of December. 

Then the progged NAO blocking for late December started to look crappier in the days approaching the grinch storm, which caused us to lose 12/29 and then recently it looks worse in early January. So a lot of people are playing the “pattern pushed back so it’s bogus” card. Even if that isn’t really sound reasoning. 

I get we are in a bad stretch, but seems early to punt winter.  Hopefully we get some improvement around 2nd week of the year.

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5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

It’s quite sad to see people lose it over something that falls from rather sky.

best of both worlds right now.  No snowpack and above normal snowfall.

A lot of people like myself enjoy winter. I find it rather depressing to have temps in the 40s and 50s with rain or hell even bare ground. There's nothing quite like a snowy landscape. And obviously for people like you and I, this is typically expected. What compounds it, is when people see nothing but a crappy pattern for winter enthusiasts, as far as we can go out with any sense of accuracy. 

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45 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Grinch storm broke a lot of people. :lol:

Kind of ruined the vibe of the good start for many peeps...so I kind of get it. But that isn’t an excuse to start punting January. Especially when model guidance is all over the map...and these same models basically wanted to puke all over December too. Then they started getting optimistic, and then tried to pull the rug out again early in the month....

Remember all the panic of December not panning out after 12/5 disappointed some folks and they were complaining that the pig was coming back by 12/15 or 12/20? Lol...then we got a major snowstorm. 

I never once panicked about December, even before guidance supported a neg NAO.

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I think you’ve got to move away from your winter forecast. I don’t mean to come across wrong here, but I’ve noticed you don’t move away from your forecast even when everything points differently. Just my opinion., but this is one of those times 

Please elaborate...thanks.

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6 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Also, way too early to cancel. People are losing their shit because of the Grinch storm. Some of the interior already has 2 small snow events this month with a 10-15" storm in between. Well over their December snow climo. 

Anyone near or above snow climo to date, and complaining about it, can take a seat :lol:.  It's about enjoying the inches that fall from the sky when they come in New England.

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