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December 2020 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark
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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We really needed the afternoon runs today to speed up the fropa and they didn’t. Pretty much deals the seal of 18-24 hours of dews , damaging winds and complete decimation of the pack north of Maine. Will hold till we see 00z , but I think it’s over 

Even if they did., you'll have patchy brown slush to look out at. Ugly AF. Although some of you may hold it with today's help.

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44 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We really needed the afternoon runs today to speed up the fropa and they didn’t. Pretty much deals the seal of 18-24 hours of dews , damaging winds and complete decimation of the pack north of Maine. Will hold till we see 00z , but I think it’s over 

18Z GFS has a great save. 12 hrs of dews with snow Christmas morning. Find a nut GFS

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1978 analog ...subsume potential:

78analog.thumb.jpg.ec474acaaec8ee527453533370cad310.jpg

I spoke about this yesterday and how the post Xmas period through the first week of January had begun to exhibit a relative stream cyclonic motion between the 60/70 N and 30 to 40 N latitudes, and that this "might" herald this sort of risk... viola! Today, we see this as though the models got that memo!

Whether this exactly verifies is obviously remote at this range, but this is just to point out the utter powderkeg that is presented when you have this sort of 'hemispheric phasing'/ multi stream harmonic that is - rarefied these days! - whole scale constructively interfering ...  Not something we've seen a lot of in recent seasons...

But take a note of the last panel on the right, 1978 compared to the Euro ( which the bottom row represents...) and peer up toward the D. Straight and Greenland... the whole scale quatra hemispheric scope of the N. Atl back through the eastern Seaboard and the Maritime of Canada are like a poor man's plagiarism... pretty amazing actually..

 

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